Tuesday thoughts
1. This front is moving quicker than expected not only does it mess me up with my forecast for MI in the national wxchallenge but for you folks out east toward Pikeville and Ashland expecting a period of snow Wednesday Morning. Both the GFS and NAM have really backed off and if the 12z runs continue the trend I may have to remove any accumulation out of the forecast. Let’s hope an east ky snowdome isn’t coming back. This front will bring gusty winds to 40 mph and rainfall of around 1 inch.
2. Taking out flurries for Thu-Fri may get burned here but I’m just not seeing much.
3. speaking of not seeing much that was the 18z gfs run on our storm threat next week. The gfs is out to lunch and the ensemble spread gives it away the model is not doing well. That being said after a 00z euro run which gave bwg 6 inches of snow the next run implies light snow over the tenn valley middle next week and the cmc is flip-flop mode as well but the 12z run of the cmc and the jma show a good potential for accumulating snow tue-wed of next week. Sticking the course for now and feel confident in my thinking. The 12z jma out to 144 hours is a link to the side on this webpage and I’m in agreement with it.
– system A: tracks across the Ohio valley this weekend then deepens slightly off the coast of atlantic Canada
– system B: cuts underneath trough behind system A and moves across gulf coast states, band of accumulating snow to the north.