Archive for May, 2008

severe threat for the next 24 hours

May 30, 2008

as scheduled a cold front is approaching there is plenty of heat and moisture to work with to fuel storms already firing to our north as they move east and south overnight. anything in our area should be after midnight but even then a compex of storms with a threat for wind damage, hail and isolated tornadoes will be likely. periods of showers and storms will likely continue into saturday.  lows will be warm in the mid to upper 60’s tonight and near 80 saturday. 

quote from henry at accuweather on the severe threat overnight, the link to his national weather blog is off to the side..

“I remain concerned that the band of storms that does develop continues east into Ohio and Kentucky overnight with the threat of wind damage and a few tornadoes. It just bothers me to see such high values of EHI coming across that area during the overnight hours”.

sunday will be calmer with lower 80’s for highs.  next week will mirror my summer outlook perfectly with thunderstorm clusters moving around the edges of the heat ridge and the estabished north east trough.  could be some severe storms as well. low 60’s/80’s should be the rule.

live updates if needed tonight for severe weather.

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Luke prevails, severe weather friday night

May 28, 2008

1. the force held on monday and most fo tuesday to make for a dry holiday, most of the state got hvy thunderstorms but not here.

2. are next front is already on the agenda for friday night and saturday morning. this front is more vigorous than the last one both in terms of instabilty and upper level support. condtions to our north across the western great lakes will be prime for a nasty squall line to form by early friday evening. this line will race into ky by the overnight hours. winds will likely be very gusty with this line along with several severe thunderstorm warnings, hail may be possible as well.

spc outlook

my outlook for fri night sat am

 

holiday weekend turning toward the dark side

May 25, 2008

the goal of darth storm and his forces is to make your holiday weekend as stormy as possibile. Luke high pressure appeared to have defeated darth storm and his death star  but darth storm has some things to throw our way.

1. heading into memorial day itself a cold front looks to be moving faster into the region. This will lead to a good chance of showers and storms on your holiday a much different tune than the other day when the front appeared to be a bit slower. both the nam and gfs have locked in on the faster solution along with the spc.

gfs monday pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_060l.gif

gfs monday evening

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_066l.gif

numerous thunderstorms tuesday (gfs)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_084l.gif

gfs brings up the threat of hvy rain monday night into tuesday

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_096l.gif

spc severe outlook a slight risk north of 1-64. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

does the nam follow suite?

mon pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_060l.gif

mon eve

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_066l.gif

tuesday

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif

bottom line: showers and storms are appearing more likely by mon eve from an aproaching cold front the main threats into tuesday will be gusty winds, lightning and tranining of storms which may lead to high water problems.

use the force luke use the force and keep the front at bay.

– updated!!!!!!!!!! 

thunderstorms in the morning tommorow should be going from kc into northern mo. the main question is how much cloud cover do these produce as they move toward the lower ohio valley. the best hope is for the complex to produce to many clouds causing it to die out. another possibile outcome is for considerable instabilty to be present due to the lack of cloud cover causing the storms to refire and really get going after weeking a bit in the late morning. the main threats are gusty winds, lightning and hvy rains.

spc outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

updated model links

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_036l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_048l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_060l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_024l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_036l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_048l.gif

the 12z nam has a good handle on tommorow. it could be very busy it the complex can reform in the afternoon.

thunderstorms likely into early saturday

May 23, 2008

1. summer forecast will be up by this evening on the side scroll at the bottom of the page.

2. showers and storms are moving across the northern suburbs of lexington with hvy rain and lightning as the main threats more storms will form across ill-ind and sweep southeast into the evening, just enough to damper evening plans. these may continue into saturday am as well.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_024l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_024l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_030l.gif

again look for my summer outlook off to the side.

holiday weekend

May 22, 2008

1. warm-up is underway the warm front should push through and wash out by late tommorow with scattered showers and storms untill then i think rain chances are a little low in most forecasts coverage to our west is about 50% and it’s moving our way. The nws had no rain period for today even with there mosty recent update just a few minutes ago considering several observations are reporting rain in the service area it’s time for them to update.

2. highs will still be in the 70’s on friday but by saturday under sunny skies and a warm southerly flow on the backside of the high we should get close to 80 sunday and memorial bbq’s should be great and summer like as we soar into the 80’s as a piece of the large western ridge moves overhead for a few days. water will still be for polor bears only due to the cool may we had.

3. a strong front follows by the middle of next week.