Archive for April, 2012

I’m Back!

April 28, 2012

It’s been a very long week as I have been working hard on edits to my masters thesis before graduation. There has been no time in my schedule for anything else.

1. Today we have a Stationary front parked over the Ohio river and a cold front with low pressure over the central plains. This will transport warm and moist air into the region. The frontal boundary may also serve to trigger some scattered storms primarily to our north. A sufficient amount of instability will be present today, marked by steep low level lapse rates ( change in temperature with height) and CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/KG. This may promote a threat for damaging winds and large hail with any storm. Highs will be in the 80′s today for all but far northern KY with mostly sunny skies. Storm chances are only around 30%. In far northern KY highs temperatures will be lower on the other side of the front in the 60’s. Also enough shear may be present for a rotating storm or two over northern KY.

 

2. Sunday and Monday the stationary boundary to our north lifts a little further north as a warm front and the cold front stays over the plains. This allows ridging to continue to build over our region. This results in sinking air at the surface preventing convection development and keeping any storm chance isolated (15%) at best with mostly sunny skies. Though once again  instability will be sufficient for any isolated storm to become severe with similar threats to today. Lows will be in the lower 60′s with highs in the low to mid 80′s, temperatures may be 10 degrees or cooler Sunday over the far north with the boundary in place. Winds through Tuesday should be out of the south and not to gusty.

3. Tuesday the cold frontal boundary approaches which is the trigger needed to increase storm chances to likely. Also shear will increase as well giving us our best chance of severe weather for the forecast  period. Though if storms arrive to early then instability will lack due to cloud cover. Lows will be in the lower 60′s with highs in the 70′s.

Trough in place now, Snow Monday?

April 21, 2012

I commented a few days ago on a system which could give snow to eastern KY and the Appalachians. Well this system still appears on target to impact the region.

1.  Sunday will feature cloudy skies and a nw flow. I only see the region staying the 50’s for highs with 40’s for lows.

2. Sunday night and Monday is the big question with low pressure developing along the east coast and phasing with a trough. This will actually pull the low track back to the northwest. Cold air will continue to funnel into the region. At the same a precipitation shield will move from east to west into eastern KY   for a time Monday morning. With dynamical cooling I expect lows to fall into the mid 30’s  for east KY which means snow will fall and not rain in places that see precip. This reminds of the system which gave TN and east KY a snowstorm and to the northwest it was much warmer. However with all of this being said It looks like the more substantial amounts of precip will be further north and east of our region but not by much. All regions west of Jackson, Maysville and Somerset should stay dry. Going with a chance for a passing rain shower Monday morning for most of east KY. A line from Greenup to Bell county, which includes Ashland and Pikeville has a chance to see a late April snow Monday morning mixing with rain. At a few of the ridgetops in far southeast KY may see a coating as well. Most of us remain cloudy and dry with strong NW winds Monday in the 50’s. Regions Not seeing precip will have lows around 40.

More of an normal pattern

April 17, 2012

1. We’ll have a system moving along the gulf coast states Tuesday and Wednesday. Today as you can see from this satellite loop on the link clouds are increasing and i don’t think temps warm much than the mid 60’s with a NE wind. A shower or two may approach southern and eastern KY as well. Lows Tuesday night should be near 50.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html

2. Wednesday clouds should clear out for all but the southeast where morning showers will be followed by cloudy skies in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 60’s southeast with highs around 70 elsewhere.

3. Thursday will be mostly sunny with lows in the 40’s to low 50’s and highs in the mid to upper 70’s southerly winds will pick up as well.

4. Friday another front will approach. Some instability should be advected into the region by late afternoon with ample moisture some storms that develop along the front may be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail. Though the timing of this system is different on each model at this point. For now this looks more like an isolated severe event. Highs will still be  in the mid 70’s to around 80 with southerly winds.

5. The front tries to re-phase with a low that it left behind over the southern plains. Right now it looks to be successful to some extent. A low should track from the gulf coast states up the east coast this weekend. A lot of details are still uncertain in my view. If the track is far enough west a cold rain would likely this weekend. A few months ago this storm would have been exciting, oh well.

 

 

 

Warm and windy Sunday, Drought developing

April 15, 2012

US Drought Monitor, April 10, 2012

Western and southern portions have been abnormally dry in recent months. A look at the EC weeklies show a strong ridge setting up from the southern plains into the Ohio valley. This will provide little relief through the of April. However there is a chance of showers with under .1 qpf for Monday which is normal for that day. By the end of the week Bowling green will be running over 3 inches below normal in rain for the year. However I see this turning around in May with a pattern featuring more frequent rain.

MCS action likely

April 13, 2012

Another busy week on the countdown to graduation, late update. Once again I’m seeing Modeling position thunderstorm complexes to far north. This is the case today with a thunderstorm complex dyeing out with the drier airmass over our region but will likely bring showers to western regions tonight.

Central Great Lakes sector loop

Lows should be in the 50’s tonight. Overnight another thunderstorm complex (MCS) forms over the Missouri valley region and tracks east. I see the EC and SPC-WRF moving this across northern KY Saturday morning. So what was once advertised a dry weekend from some is now a wet Saturday from LEX-LOU north. wide range in temps from the 70’s and even 80’s south where the sun can come out to the 60’s north to the rain and storms. I don’t expect any severe weather due to limited instability. Though the plains will have a very active day unfortunately with eastern Nebraska the focal point. Sorry for the late forecast for FRI-SAT. I’ll update again Saturday.