Archive for September, 2009

miss with frost and precip timing for friday

September 30, 2009

1. frost adv’s are up for areas nw of Kentucky, however observed dewpoints are above 40 which for us means that is the lower limit on lows tonight. the main concern of mine is for patchy fog with light winds and humidity levels already rising at the temp cools.

2.  the nam brings a round of rain from the next front friday morning.

the gfs is about the same

tomorrow i will put up a weekend forecast. one more winter note the last time my phillies won three straight division titles was back in the late 70’s and we know how those winters were is there actually correlation no but one can always imagine some!!!!

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One simple map

September 28, 2009

take a look at the JAN monthly image!!!!!!

umm were over 2* below normal. hope that raised the spirits of you winter fans out there!

a fall feel to things

September 27, 2009

1. Quite a difference as instead of the muggies one feels a slight fall chill in the air, extensive clouds this morning should keep highs only in the mid 70’s west and low 70’s east. Tonight winds will become gusty out of the south in responce to a strong frontal boundry with very limited mositure. This boundry and the gusty winds along with clouds and a passing shower overnight should keep lows near 60 in many spots.

GFS image of the frontal passage around dawn monday morning

2. After this frontal passage the flow the backside of the low pressure shifts to nw. Winds will be gusty early but should decrease some throughout the day. we’ll still have a fair amounts of clouds and i don’t expect temps to rise that much throughout the day perhaps only into the mid and upper 60’s for most areas thanks to clouds and the nw flow. One thing to be careful of is forecasters in love with mos data, it usually busts in this set-up. Don’t worry this is a raw data only zone on my site.

3. Tuesday we should be firmly in this first candian airmass of the season with lots of sun under high pressure and low humidity. Clear skies will allows temps at night to tumble into the low and mid 40’s for lows and recover well into the 60’s for highs.

4. The core of this airmass should move east a bit but we will still be under it’s influence for wednesday and thursday with lows in the upper 40’s and highs averaging near 70 across the region.

5. Return flow and the next frontal system may lead to some scattered showers by friday and saturday. As of now i’m not impressed with rain chances from this feature and any showers look light. highs should be right aorund 70 with warmer lows in the 50’s due to expected cloudcover.

6. With my busy schedule as a grad reserach assistant and class schedule at WKU it’s hard to put 45 minutes in each day to do a huge post. I will still provide two or three of these often on sundays and thursdays. However I plan on making posts on other days more brief or sometimes just a quick remark about something.  The main acception would be for severe weather events. This will also allow me to have more time to make a better quality of post which is more polished.

first brief post ( monday or tuesday):  a Jan cfs temp map forecast that will make most of you smile!

saturday overview

September 26, 2009

hopefully many of you are checking this site today wondering about the details of the rain today.

1. This morning periods of showers and storms will be ongoing east of a covington to shelbyville to campbelsville line and will be hvy at times with some areas reciving an inch or two of rain by mid afternoon which may lead to even more flooding problems, as of 1 am a flash flood warning is still in effect for southern portions of the lex metro.

2. this main batch of storms should sweep west to east clearing the lexington metro by early afternoon, jackson by 4 pm and hang on till mid evening in the far east parts of KY. another upper air disturbance which the models are now starting to figure out will fire off more late afternoon storms across 1-65 areas.

upper level disturbance on the gfs 500 mb level

3. The second batch of storms may arrive at commonwealth right in time for kick off. The first batch should not be strong. However there will be some daytime heating and sunshine in the early afternoon which can destabilze the atmosphere with this decent upper air disturbance I could see some strong storms from batch 2 with gusty winds and small hail. These storms will weaken shortly after sunset.

nam radar for sat eve

big cool down follows early next week.

I’ll do my best to post those flood warnings and there is still a flash flood watch in effect, good job by the nws getting this out early! Eventhough i thought a flood adv should have been issued for woodford county last night about 9:15 with the rainfall rates being so high.

wet pattern continues

September 24, 2009

some quick points tonight.

1. more showers and storms will move across the region on friday with highs near 80 and lows in the 60’s with muggy condtions. some of these again will have hvy rains with them and this has prompted a flash flood watch for western sections of the region.

2. I think the main batch of storms and hvy rain is early saturday morning west and late morning till mid afternoon east. I expect a general 1/2 inch with amounts over an inch east , this may prompt a few more areas to have high water rises and flash flooding. As the afternoon goes on skies should clear from west to east. the nam will be a few hours slower than what actually happens and the gfs faster with timing of the storms. Of course i will pass along any flood warnings.

3. sunday should be a dry day finally!! with highs around 80 and lows near 60.

4.  early next week this changes with a strong cold front that has very limited mositure so it’s no rain and a pattern chance to fall weather behind it in a NW flow set-up. highs will be in the 60’s and 40’s for lows a few days next week.

5. My duty on the WKU blog is done for a while, thank you for checking it out. The good news is now I’ll be back to daily posts on here. notice how some things are blue you can click on these to view the link.