Archive for July, 2008

weekend ahead

July 31, 2008

1. friday will feature more sunshine than today we’re back to 90.

2. the ridge will be a little slower to build in to delay the heat wave we’ll still push 90 saturday and sunday with the slightest storm chance. lows will be a little under 70.

3. the heat will move in for monday and tuesday we’ll make run at the mid 90’s with humid air heat index values will get to 100-105, dewpoints look a little lower than they did a few days ago keeping the heat index values a little lower. 

4, the GFS long range already has some unseasonabily cool air building into canada by mid august.

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dolly and hard core summer are coming

July 29, 2008

– heat index only got to near 100 today as dewpoints dropped into the mid 60’s offcially today.

1. a frontal system is still expected to move in wednesday and thursday and have help from the leftovers to produce numerous storms and some local 1-2 inch rainfall totals most areas should be uner 1 inch but it’s a  good chance to really wet the lawns and fill up those pools. some gusty winds are possible as well from any storms. one thing that i don’t think will work against us is storm formation south of us robbing mositure needed to form storms since dolly willadd the needed mositure.  

2. a warning i posted several times for aug 1 THE HEAT WAVE IS COMING. saturday thorugh next tuesday will be extremely hot as the ridge which has been entrenched gets really strong and flexs east for a few days. highs should be in the mid 90’s with lows and dewpoints in the lower 70’s, so this will be a very humid heat wave as well. combine the heat and humidity and we get heat index values of 103-110. definetely heat advisory values/ excessive heat warning values for these days. it will still feel like near 80 at night.

1. check that your air condtioners are working properly

2. have a plan to keep an eye on known elderly and little children.

3. know the condtions of heat stroke and cramps

4. read the heat tips on the side of this page.

5. drink lots of water

this will be the hottest weather this year, check the last post for my august outlook.

week ahead and a august preview ( updated)

July 27, 2008

1. hot and dry will ber the theme with a slight slight chance of a storm through monday upper 60’s to upper 80’s as well. ( cloud cover today may hold things down a bit thunderstorm chances slightly higher as well an isolated storm is heading toward frankfort as i type.) watch that derecho over north dakota as well today it will be very powerful and move over a large area.

2. tuesday MAY be our first day this year with a HEAT ADVISORY we came close one day last week but storms to our west cooled us off. the ridge will buckle back into the area with dewpoints just over 70 and highs in the low 90’s under a full summer sun. this translates to a heat index approching 100-105 in the shade, over 105 in the sun. still the slighest chance of a storm.

3. wednesday thorugh friday will feature a better chance of storms with a front to our north back down into the upper 60’s-80’s for temps. In additon with the front and upper level disturbance dolly will add some fun, that’s right the same dolly that hit texas a while ago, it’s a lot weeker now but will enhance our much needed storm chances wednesday and thursday. take a look at the 00z gfs rain totals wed night

There’s just one problem with that much needed rain, convective feedback. so while that is unlikely some 1-2 inch rain totals are possible due to the extra tropical moisture thrown in.

august preview

– first week very hot, it looks like my heat wave idea was right could be several days in the 90-95 range, if the core moves further east than what the GFS has it could get very hot and dry for the first 10 days similar to last summer which was awful.

– the second half of the month willl be more active all around cooler and wetter than normal with tropical systems and more severe weather to content with.

bonus winter peek

– very very very early in the game of making a winter forecast i’m thinking JAN will be a snowier than normal month based on what i’ve seen so far, still a lot of stuff to look through and time to pass before making a guess. last winter i hit the bullseye in terms of precip and temps ( you’ll have to take my word for it).

rest of weekend

July 25, 2008

1. it’s been cloudy as a predicted thunderstorm complex just went to our west this morning. no thunderstorms have formed so far but with a miss from this complex the chances of a wet festival in versailles or rain at your house have fallen to about 20-30% tonight. highs will be in the mid 80’s lows in the 60’s.

2. more thunderstorm chances and 60/80’s are in the cards for saturday and sunday that thunderstorm complex on the 6Z nam had me excited for needed rain but chances have tappered off on the 12z runs of the models. i still think there will be more coverage than indicated but still only about 40%. hope we beat the odds!!!

3. heat may be coming back next week. this is usually the hottest week of the year coming up.

3 part ky weather history series coming in august

part 1- winter storms

part 2- rain, severe weather

part 3- historical cold and heat.

I’m already starting on a little reserch for it. hopefully this will be a chance to discuss and anaylze kentucky’s weather history, i wrote the dates on a prevoius post several weeks ago for this series.

events forecast back with a bang

July 23, 2008

 a lot is going on this weekend here in versailles

– downtown twlight festival food festivites etc. ( fri 5-9)

– courtyard carvinal at versailles presbyterian church ( fri 5-9)

– 2 church yardsales downtown ( fri 5-9, sat 8-12)

– local fish fry ( fri 4:30-7:30)

as of now our next frontal system appears to be moving back into the area with humidity and temps back on the increase. another one of those thunderstorm complexs will likely form to our west friday morning the nam has it going north of the ohio river while the gfs brings a round of storms in here for the afternoon. outside of the complex scattered storms will be possible ( 40% ch rain) no severe chances as of now. temps will be in  the mid 80’s with some summertime humidity.

I will be there at the festivites this weekend, if you’re in the area and need something to do with your family it’s usually a fun time with things everyone will like. friday 5-9 downtown versailles you can google 130 norht main street for directions. hope to see one or two of you, i will be running one of the carnival games!!!!!