Archive for April, 2009

derby style washout???

April 30, 2009

this is a turning point in the forecast for derby day, i had the new front orginally moving through just to our south keeping us with a small rain chance now things have changed. why?

the ridge has held on a little stronger than expected, this was easy to see tuesday as thunderstorm activity quickly died out as it moves in showing the ridge was holding on more than what the models had.  As a result of the ridge flexing it’s mussels the front will set up through the weekend a little further north right over kentucky.

yesturday those of you along and south of the first “impulse/upper air disturbance” along our old front saw periods of slow moving showers and storms yesturday and it took gulf mositure away from those in the north to produce storms. this lead to some rain amounts over an inch.

1. the leftovers of a old warm front which will be asorbed by the new cold front. another cluster of showers ans storms will exit this afternoon leaving just scattered storms and muggy condtions in it’s wake highs will be in the 70’s.

2. later on tonight another upper level impluse along the boundry will be focus for more rain and storms some of which will be hvy at times with the threat for training and slow moving storms which we have seen already this week. both the nam and gfs have impresive totals for tonight and friday morning(100%). once again activity should become more scattered as the day goes on(30%) with chances a little higher by early evening friday night for the Oaks(40%) with a little more instabilty. with the storm action there a slight risk of damaging winds and hail with the storms. the main threat by far will be hvy rain.

nam fri am

gfs fri am

spc

this front is slow moving with a week jet i don’t think the severe threat is that high but isolated clusters that produce gusty winds are possibile.

3. on to derby day there is disagreement the gfs brings another impulse through in the morning making it similar to friday however with some daytime heating the nam widespread activity later in the day for the derby. for now showers and storms look likely to say the least with similar hvy rain and gusty wind threats as friday. highs will be in the 70’s through the weekend.

4. this front stays put for sunday with more periods of thunderstorms w/ a hvy rain threat and maybe a cluster or two which can produce gusty winds. there will likely be a final push of the front monday and tuesday with even more periods of showers and storms. the rainfall through tuesday really adds up on the models and the flood threat will increase by early next week.

nam rainfall 12z thu-12z fri

nam rainfall 12z fri- mon 00z

a good 4-6 inches of rain by sunday night if right.

gfs thu 12z- sun 00z

gfs sun 00z- tue 00z

a good 3-5 inches on this gfs run for the whole event.

– expect periods of rain and storms with high water concerns increasing through the weekend, gusty winds are possibile with a few storms.  

– chance for a wet oaks(40%) and wet derby(60%)

short term forecast: muggy for most, southern thunderstorms

April 29, 2009

a quick morning update those of you in south central ky in in glasgow, lincon county, casey county, taylor county east to jackson have had a very wet and stormy morning to contend with. however for the rest of us it has been muggy and cloudy. those of you that have had the steady storms will continue to do so for the next hour or two with total rainfall of 1-3 inches. there a few pockets of heavier storms that if they linger may lead to high water problems. However even those we have seen training storms, there has been no flooding or dramatic creek rises so far with the higheszt rain totals under an inch according to the mesonet.

over the next 2 hours i will be watching these cells to see if the get heavier or reform over areas where the heaviest rain has already fallen.

 

nws

PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS SET UP OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM MAMMOTH CAVE THROUGH
GREENSBURG TO LIBERTY.  RADAR LOOPS REVEAL ONLY A VERY SLIGHT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS EAST-WEST BAND…WITH NEW CELLS CONSTANTLY
FEEDING INTO IT FROM THE SOUTH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH SINCE ABOUT SUNRISE. WE HAVE MADE
SEVERAL CALLS TO THE AFFECTED COUNTIES AND HAVE RECEIVED NO REPORTS
OF ANY WATER PROBLEMS SO FAR AND LOCAL RIVER GAUGES ARE NOT SHOWING
DRAMATIC RISES AS OF YET. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM COCORAHS
OBSERVERS WERE QUITE LOW. NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

AS FOR THE FUTURE OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS…MODELS WERE
ABLE TO PICK UP ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING…WHICH IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST TODAY…AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED IN LOCAL RADAR LOOPS THAT SHOW THE BAND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS EDGING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST WITH A DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY ON ITS WESTERN TIP OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.

frontal boundry our new houseguest

April 28, 2009

for the rest of this week we have this front in place which will mean more clouds than sun along with periods showers and storms non severe. lows will be in the muggier 50’s and 60’s with highs in the 70’s. the one change is for friday as the spc has under a day 4 risk. I think the main threat will be gusty winds from storms and the potentail for a squall line late friday. as of now the front should move south of the region for derby day.

spc for friday

…COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND OH
   VALLEY FRIDAY AS THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE
   GREAT LAKES. MOIST AXIS WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEWD MIGRATING LOW
   LEVEL JET. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS WHERE MODEST
   INSTABILITY BUT STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
   FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   FARTHER WEST ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS AND
   OK WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY EXIST.

the rest of the week, bye bye summer preview

April 27, 2009

1. summer’s over for a few weeks. a front is still expected to move in and meander over the ohio valley for most of the week this will mean periods of storms ON AND OFF  from tuesday through thursday. By friday a second stronger front should push through. In my view this is the highest threat for storms with gusty winds or hail, most of storms through thursday should be non severe. Again it’s not going to rain all day every day but expect some storms each day. highs will generally be in the 70’s with lows in the upper 50’s and 60’s.

red flag warnings this afternoon

April 27, 2009

it’s a hot one today with highs 85-90 with low humidities and a decent sw wind, with a few dry days in a row condtions are favorable for some forset fires across the region. several fires have already been reported in areas such as the daniel boone national forest.

…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS…LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES… AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION FUEL MOISTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MEET OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW…OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS…LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING…

.PERSISTENT AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS…LOW HUMIDITIES…AND DRY
FUELS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR…AS WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO AGAIN RISE INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S…AND GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN FROM
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE…CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS RED FLAG
WARNING INCLUDES THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-108-111-114-272115-
/O.UPG.KJKL.FW.A.0001.090427T1600Z-090427T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KJKL.FW.W.0003.090427T1700Z-090427T2300Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WOLFE-LEE-OWSLEY-
907 AM EDT MON APR 27 2009

…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES:
IN KENTUCKY…44…50…51…52…58…59…60…68…69
…79…80…83…84…108…111…114

20 FOOT WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 15 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED. IN ADDITION…RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 22 TO 27 PERCENT RANGE. THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN DURING THE EVENING.

 

i’ll update the rest of the forecast  later on today.