Archive for March, 2012

MCS Sunday?

March 31, 2012

This may throw a big wrench into the forecasts calling for 80’s and sunny. The NAM is most interest but appears to be the further southwest with a MCS in the morning. For now will only adjust temps down slightly for Sunday as a mix of clouds may keep highs around 80 or in the 70’s for many instead of in the 80’s. As for Actual storm chances I’m not buying into a morning thunderstorm complex, however tendency is the modeling is often to far north so we’ll see. I do think a MCS thunderstorm complex will track across northern KY Sunday night with gusty winds.

12:00 AM Sunday update: Still think MCS’s to our north keep it cloudy the HRRR now along the NAM show a thunderstorm cluster for the bluegrass and northern KY regions in the morning. This matches up with some of the meteorological analysis I have done. However I’m just not sold the cluster of the storms can maintain strength into our region. Usually i would like to see a stronger LLJ coming into play with an overnight MCS/ thunderstorm event. Still looking at a second MCS Sunday night with a severe threat mainly I-64 north. The 00z NAM sounding from Lexington was very favorable for severe weather.

Advertisements

April thoughts

March 30, 2012

Agreed with msot points on the EC weekly forecast. trough sets-up over the northeast with a mean ridge in the southern plains

– MJO has been stuck in phases 6 and 7 for a while it should move into phases 8 and 1 for the month of april. Phase 6 which occured earlier this month means very warm weather. 7 and 8 aren’t strong singals and phase 1 is an indicator for cool. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

– nw flow may become favorable for MCS complexs by mid to late month

– the analogs are mixed  now

temp map for april, keeping it near normal.

 

 

several small severe threats through early next week

March 29, 2012

1. Friday A frontal system will move across the Ohio valley this week front may spark a storm or two across the region. With ample instabilty it may be strong to severe. However the bext chance of severe weather stays north of the Ohio river near the triple point of the warm/cold fronts and low center. lows will be in the 50’s with highs in the mid to upper 70’s maybe an 80 or two south.
2. Saturday with the front clearing out early lows should warm maybe around 60 for the south with upper 40’s and 50’s elsewhere with highs in the 60’s east and mid 70’s west. Saturday will be dry.
3. Sunday will feature lows in the 50’s with highs from the mid 70’s to low 80’s. instabilty will increase again leading to a few pop up storms which could have some hail.

severe thunderstorm untill 9 pm for bluegrass, east KY

March 28, 2012

watching some scattered storms form along the boundary. Ample instability should allow a few of these to become strong to severe with hail and gusty winds. however many places will stay dry. Higher values of CAPE will move into the bluegrass and northern KY where the lift is already enough to delevop some showers. with some bulk shear in place to promote storm organization. The bottom line should be a line of scattered strong storms slowly moving south from a Maysville to Louisville line in the next hour southeast into Lexington and southeast KY into the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

update on severe threats today and friday

March 28, 2012

A cold front is working toward the Ohio river late this morning. Ahead of the front instability has increased, with ample moisture the front will provide the lift needed for some scattered storms later today particularly from Lexington and points to the north and east. The threats today will some hail and gusty winds. I’ll do my best to track severe storms below in the comments section.

Friday another system works into the region. Ample moisture and instability should be present by late in the afternoon after a passage of a warm front early in the day. For Friday enough shear may be present for isolated tornadoes as well. The amount of instability present will lead to the inclusion of hail and damaging wind threats again as well. My target area friday for severe weather is the I-71 regions standing the best chance of severe weather.