1. rain is still expected to turn to snow late tonight and last into monday night with most snow accumlation occuring as grass as temps fall from the 40’s today into the low and mid 30’s for monday with the recent warmer weather roads should be mainly wet through monday but with lows in the 20’s monday night slick spots with black ice and lgt snow cover are possibile. I think the snow does not start till the early morning hours ( a few hours later w/ storm timing) which means school of some sort for the kids., tuesday may end being the better chance for some for a snow day. overall most of us should be near an inch with up to 2.5 locally and in the upslope areas. The NWS did a good job getting special weather statements out today for the lgt snow.
NWS LMK
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO OHIO TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY DEVELOP SLICK SPOTS. NWS JKLSnow showers will be possible at times from late Sunday night through
very early Tuesday morning. At this time, it appears accumulations
will be light for this event and limited in the valleys due to warm ground and
surface temperatures expected to remain above freezing for much of
the day on Monday. A dusting to an inch could fall in the valleys. However,
event total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible at 2000 feet elevationand above.
I'm thinking a little more in spots than the nws but getting the word out that slippery travels may be ahead is the most important thing right now.
GFS QPF mon am-night
a general inch plus with that 2.5 inch max along the va line, looks good here. monday will be windy as well casuing wind chills to be in the 20's.
2. tuesday will be cold again with some clearing late with a lgt snow cover temps should only make it to 30.
tuesday night our next front will quickly approach this one is a true
arctic front but ahead of the front waa should start up and create a fight with the lgt snow ocver which
would want to create colder night lows. we'll see how that unfolds
lows should be in the low to mid 20's.
3. clouds should pick up again on wednesday with rain showers moving in late thanks
to the waa bringing gulf moisture in highs should get into the low and mid 40's.the front pushes through wed night with the likely hood of low pressure forming along it bringing a nice slug of mositure through as cold arctic air comes crashing in. right now the 12z gfs says the front pases before the wave comes north meaning snow as temps fall quickly in to the 20's however we could end up with just a cold rain to flurries like the EURO has.
if the GFS holds true there would be a lot of wet surfaces freezing with some snow on
top of it. sounds like a another snow day, maybe.
4. arctic air moves in for thursday and friday highs should stay in the upper 20's
with 10's for lows. there is another chance for lgt snow late friday into saturday
as a nw flow disturbance moves in.
these type of systems can bring us some more lgt snow as well,
but there also very tricky to forecast and the track needs to be just right for us.
highs will be near 30 saturday.
5. what should be a decent storm will form for the 8th-10th west of the apps
track rain, east a good sized snowfall. temps will stay cool. just as i write this the gfs dropped it.