Archive for November, 2008

busy week ahead

November 30, 2008

1. rain is still expected to turn to snow late tonight and last into monday night with most snow accumlation occuring as grass as temps fall from the 40’s today into the low and mid 30’s for monday with the recent warmer weather roads should be mainly wet through monday but with lows in the 20’s monday night slick  spots with black ice and lgt snow cover are possibile. I think the snow does not start till the early morning hours ( a few hours later w/ storm timing) which means school of some sort for the kids., tuesday may end being the better chance for some for a snow day. overall most of us should be near an inch with up to 2.5 locally and in the upslope areas. The NWS did a good job getting special weather statements out today for the lgt snow.

NWS LMK

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO
OHIO TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

THIS SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON MONDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY
DEVELOP SLICK SPOTS.
NWS JKL
Snow showers will be possible at times from late Sunday night through
very early Tuesday morning. At this time, it appears accumulations
will be light for this event and limited in the valleys due to warm ground and
surface temperatures expected to remain above freezing for much of
the day on Monday. A dusting to an inch could fall in the valleys. However, 
event total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible at 2000 feet elevation
and above.
I'm thinking a little more in spots than the nws but getting the word out that slippery travels may be ahead is the most important thing right now.
GFS QPF mon am-night
a general inch plus with that 2.5 inch max along the va line, looks good here. monday will be windy as well casuing wind chills to be in the 20's. 
2. tuesday will be cold again with some clearing late with a lgt snow cover temps should only make it to 30. 
tuesday night our next front will quickly approach this one is a true 
arctic front but ahead of the front waa should start up and create a fight with the lgt snow ocver which 
would want to create colder night lows. we'll see how that unfolds
lows should be in the low to mid 20's. 
3. clouds should pick up again on wednesday with rain showers moving in late thanks 
to the waa bringing gulf moisture in highs should get into the low and mid 40's. 
the front pushes through wed night with the likely hood of low pressure forming along it bringing a nice slug of mositure through as cold arctic air comes crashing in. right now the 12z gfs says the front pases before the wave comes north meaning snow as temps fall quickly in to the 20's however we could end up with just a cold rain to flurries like the EURO has.
if the GFS holds true there would be a lot of wet surfaces freezing with some snow on 
top of it. sounds like a another snow day, maybe.
4. arctic air moves in for thursday and friday highs should stay in the upper 20's
 with 10's for lows. there is another chance for lgt snow late friday into saturday 
as a nw flow disturbance moves in.
these type of systems can bring us some more lgt snow as well, 
but there also very tricky to forecast and the track needs to be just right for us.
highs will be near 30 saturday.
5. what should be a decent storm will form for the 8th-10th west of the apps 
track rain, east a good sized snowfall. temps will stay cool. just as i write this the gfs dropped it.
 
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saturday update

November 29, 2008

our storm appers on track for sun-mon. however low 1 looks to track further west which means everyone has a cold rain sunday before changing to wrap-around snow shwrs sun night through mon-night.

qpf sun night-mon night from GFS and NAM

the nam has some patchy amounts over 2 inches why???

a little disturance rotating around the storm helps boost snowfall

we’ll have to watch for that. sun night thorugh mon night still look tricky traveling hopefully all of the return folks for thanksgiving have sun am flights and trips. overall i’m thinking 1-2 inches maybe a “3” for far se ky and elesewhere if we get a disturance like the NAM suggests. Also i expect this to be snow shwrs with the avg 1-2 inches so some folks may miss out like the lighter green areas suggest on the models, however we will not know that till monday almost.

 

long range looks very active snowy and cold check out the 14+ day!

First forecast of snow totals for sun-mon

November 28, 2008

1. our storm is still expected to form for late sat-mon. low pressure will begin to form over the south saturday night as phasing begins between the two branches, however what is different from yesturday is that the hard core phasing won’t happen till the storm is in new england meaning snowstorm there and lighter precip here. the timing is a little faster now.

saturday night from the NAM and GFS 18z runs.

we see the first low heading up the spine of the apps, earlier runs had it going even further west but a track up or just west of the apps with low 1 is a good bet sun am with support from the ensembles as well.a  coastal low forms as well on sunday robbing some of the deeper mositure. low 1 will also bring a dry slot through sunday afternoon meaning drizzle for all with temps 35-38.

sun pm NAM radar

colder air moves and there is plenty of wrap around snows for sunday night through monday night.

NAM above, NAM qpf for sun night-mon night likely will be more spread out and a little lighter

GFS qpf

still some differences but we’re getting close to a solution most of the other models show something similar to the NAM and GFS.

My first forecast subject to change of course

Sun am precip type as low 1 passes through

snow3

an inch or so of snow far northern ky, with up to an inch of snow and a messy mixture and a cold rain for most. this snow should melt bu early afternoon as drizzle sets in untill the evening and temps rise to 35-38 for a few hours.

wrap around precip comes around sun night through mon night as temps fall below 32. travel problems should be minor on the way to chruch sun am as that snow should be a grass only ordeal since temps have been warm the last few days, roads should be wet. but with temps falling below 32 and some snow accumlation travel could get tricky. caution is advised sun night- mon night regionwide and oh yes kids a snow day for most of you monday perhaps some on tuesday as well. upslope may kick in as well boosting totals for the far se. thanskgiving return travel will be impacted by rain, snow and wind east of chicago and memphis.

sun night-mon night snow totals

snow4

 

SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT

snow5

– for the forecast past mon please click onto the 14 day forecast since we have a storm that deserves a lot of attention now.

 

from yesturday: I’m thankful for a lot of things in life my family who loves me, a good education etc. I’m thankful for each of you for viewing the blog, and welcome to those of you who are new to the blog. to comment no e-mail is necesary eventhough it requests one.

quick friday update

November 28, 2008

1. saturday still looks cloudy with a rain shower or two south with highs in the mid 40’s.

2. our storm looks faster now on some of the models with the potential for precip to break out by sunday morning across most of the area with a messy mixture possibile. this would also mean the potential for a afternoon dry slot which would match up nicely with with the warmest time of day.

3. the backside snow band should put some snow on the ground sunday night into monday night with temps below 32 sunday night kids: a extended thanksgiving is an increasing possibility. right now i’m thinking this is a advisory event. which means winter weather will cause incoviences, and some travel hazards will occur with minor delays due to weather, caution should still be advised.

full update later today with the first call for snow totals. the nws lmk did change there forecast to reflect there is still uncertainity which was the right way to go.

First call: well sort of

November 27, 2008

1. we’re one day closer to our storm for sun-mon i’m gaining some, not a ton confiendence about how things will go down.

2. no changes for fri-sat 40’s and clouds sat still a chance of light mix far south. bundle up shoppers, by the way santa, may labtop gave out for good this week my list is 1. COMPUTER, lexington christmas parade looks chilly 30’s and mostly cloudy

3. our low will begin to phase and move into the area by sunday morning. we’ll go with the 18z GFS run for now.

by sunday afternoon one low pressure should be riding up the coast east of the apps and the northern stream trough should form a low over eastern ky which means a cold rain/ mix is more of a concern in today’s update. these lows then merge near pittsburgh by mon am with a band of snow west of the low which includes us. there is the added bonus of upslope as well.

even though thickness and 850 mb temps may support snow surface temps may rise into the 35-38 range sunday afternoon before falling by mid- afternoon.

timeline of precip type

snow1

the warmest it will be is at 3 pm rain may mix in sunday all the way nw toward lex and frankfort while jkl and pikeville have a cold rain for a while.

snow2

by 9 or 10 pm we all should have snow falling.  I however think the lows have begun to merge over roanke at this point with a darker green area covering most of the state southern indiana and southern ohio.

how did that low move northwest? no it did not move nw the northern branch low absorbed it, farther to the north than my thinking but this shows are bonus upslope snows nicely. ironically the bonus may be easiest question on this storm exam.

the CMC showed my ideas fairly well late sun and mon may be a bit to far west but still it asborbs the southern system into the northern branch. mix/ cold rain may occur most of sunday regionwide is the neagtive with this outcome, but heavier snow for sunday night and monday. MM not inches 1mm=.4 in snow.

 

now for the first guess at totals. gotcha! It’s to early to get into details about totals because i still think we still have some details to iron out with this system, if the models go to my thinking then good if not adjustments will be made as needed. To bad the nws lmk doesn’t think that, every system they put a  thought on totals to early and get burned in both directions with there early total forecasts, they’ve called for under an inch. one thing is for sure any one with travel plans east of the missisippi will have to deal with bad weather rain, snow and wind which is likely to casue lots of delays on sunday and monday at the airports and on the roads.