the week ahead

triva question: how strong were the winds with the commanche tornado in Iowa?  hint: look at the fujita scale

1. monday and tuesday will see lots of sun and a little summer preview with highs well into the 80’s and sunny skies with a southerly flow humidity will also increase as well by late tuesday.

2. wednesday the next front will move in with another storm chance looks about 50 or 60% now. due to clouds and rain highs will only make the upper 70’s.

3. thursday and friday will feature the front in the region, the question is does it stall over us or south of us? right now the euro has us dry the gfs wet and the cmc with a slight storm chance. highs will be near 80 with a cooler dryer airmass trying to move in.

cmc

weather trvia answer:  300 mph

cheers and jeers

1. cheers to today warm sunny and less hunidity as high pressure is in place with highs in the mid to upper 70’s.

2. jeers to a week frontal boundry sliding into the upper ohio valley tommorow with a complex of storms forming along it by late morning and moving in for the afternoon. this complex will produce storms will gusty winds, small hail and more very hvy rains. severe weather and localized flooding will be issues again.  highs will be near 80.

nam sat am

nam early afternoon

nam early evening

looks a bit higher than 20% chance to me which is what most forecasts have. this is the 12z guidence which has really amped up storm chances. the 12z gfs has a nice coverage of afternoon storms as well.

the spc has a slight risk for severe weather for the region on saturday

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

overall expect another rainout of plans saturday, we still have today!

severe punch to today’s action

with the front getting closer to the region there’s a threat for more organized activty today from the ouflow boundries of yesturday’s storms and favorbakle dynamics ahead of the front. these storms should have more bark in a few spots with small hail as cooler air moves in aloft and of course local gusty winds. the SPC has issued a MD for our area.

THIS JUST IN

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
204 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
MENIFEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 204 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FAGAN…OR
7 MILES WEST OF FRENCHBURG…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
FRENCHBURG…
ARTVILLE…
BIG WOODS…
CEDAR GROVES…
CLAY LICK.

we’ll have to add isolated tornadoes as well for today’s threats as this storm is spinning up a little.

SPC md

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009
  
   AREAS AFFECTED…SRN IND/OH…CNTRL/ERN KY…MIDDLE/ERN TN…NRN
   AL/GA
  
   CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
  
   VALID 281728Z – 281830Z
  
   SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE FROM THE OH RIVER TO THE TN VALLEY AS
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
   BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
   FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
  
   17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A MESOLOW AROUND 30 NW
   EVV…WITH COLD FRONTAL SEGMENTS EXTENDING NEWD AND S/SWWD OF THIS
   CYCLONE. CU/CB FIELD APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY AGITATED FROM THE OH
   RIVER TO THE TN VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE MID-MS VALLEY. HI-RES AND OPERATIONAL MODEL
   GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
   STREAK OVERSPREADING THE REGION WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. A
   RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE
   EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
   BE THE MAIN INITIAL THREAT…WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING MORE
   PREDOMINANT LATER ON.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0882.html

expect live updates this afternoon. again more storms with hvy rain some hail and a tornado threat.

Picnic in the park announcement

IF you are inquiring about picnic in the park on this site an announcement will be placed here before 5 pm in bold caps.

radar

for those who are regular visitors, picnic in the park is an event for my church tonight.

some of the storms near e-town are strong if they hold form they could impact the Lexington metro for the rush hour as they move east.

nws

…STRONG STORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN HARDIN COUNTY…

AT 138 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTH OF MUNFORDVILLE…OR 43 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN…AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE…SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL…AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35
TO 40 MPH…ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE…
  NEAR HODGENVILLE AROUND 240 PM EDT.

mesonet update

often i use data from the KY mesonet for current weather conditions and to analyze weather of the previous day. I think this is a great service for the state of Kentucky.

from the nws lmk  site

The Grayson County mesonet site near Leitchfield. This site is one of 25 operational sites around the commonwealth that collect real time temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind data. The newest site in the network near Harrodsburg in Mercer County, will come on line this week. There are plans for the construction of 100 sites in all. For more information about the Kentucky Mesonet, and to view data from the sites, visit the Kentucky Mesonet web site ( off to the side link)

Dr’s Foster and Mahmood who i will have the pleasure of learning from and working with in the fall were on site for this event. pictures are on nws site.

 

to the weather

1.Wednesday will feature more of the same with scattered afternoon storms with hvy downpours, i still expect about 50-60% storm coverage and highs around 80. there may be a little more coverage thanks to more upper air disturbances and outflow boundaries we won’t know the locations till about 1 or so.

2. Thursday will see fewer storms as the boundary to our north and the old tropical low  finally begin to move east highs will be near 80 again.

3. can Friday be rain free???  maybe but not a big chance for rain, it will depend on if the system lingers even longer. highs will fall into the 70’s with a dryer airmass as well by the weekend.