Archive for December, 2009

bonus snow!!!!!!!!

December 31, 2009

1. evaporational cooling tonight prevailed over waa for a rare upset win this allowed temps to fall into the low and mid 30’s allowing for more a mixture of rain and snow then just rain across the region. where the snow fell hard light unexpected accums occurred.

2. Thursday will feature drizzle followed by some snow showers for new years eve and day as the secondary energy does not get into gear untill it reaches new england. highs Thursday should be near 4o with temps by new years day not reaching the 20’s with blustery nw winds.

3. most of next week should be  cloudy cold and blustery with lows in the 10’s and highs in the 20’s with an arctic airmass engulfing most of the country. I expect most days to be cloudy with chances for flurries any upper level disturbances could easily provide a period of light snow with light accums, timing these will be very difficult.

4. by Thursday of next week considerable pacific energy with a southern disturbance become involved forming a storm over texas with considerable arctic air in place it’s snow or no with ratios near 20:1 possible.

00z gfs late next week storm threat

other models are hinting at this set-up as well.

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update on late week mess

December 29, 2009

1. This continues to look like a series of small systems for our region

2. This means on Wednesday clouds should increase with southerly flow picking up allowing for highs in the upper 30’s north to low 40’s south. I can’t rule out a sprinkle or snow flake in the morning for the bwg area however that could quickly lift north into Illinois.

Nam radar 1 pm

3. with strong warm air advection (WAA) temps could only fall into the mid 30’s north and upper 30’s south. this means light rain for areas such as bowling green, Somerset, and Pikeville. Further north snow will mix in but will not accumulate due to the back and forth nature of precip and temps over freezing this includes Covington, Ashland, Louisville and Lexington, look for mainly rain as each model run continues to trend warmer. qpf amounts only look to be around .1 from this. Drizzle will continue into Thursday.

4. The secondary energy moving northeast from the red river valley will lead to the development of a snow band right over Kentucky Thursday night. The models are still having a tough time pinpointing this. However a couple of inches could fall if the band forms far enough to the west, right the favored areas for advisory level accumulations are Ashland and Pikeville. After highs near 40 Thursday temps should crash quickly Thursday night with thickness values and 850 mb temps rapidly falling meaning mainly if not all snow from this precip. recent trends on the 00z runs are showing a weaker and further east low which would mean less snow.

nam thu eve

nam thu overnight

So far I’ll call this a dud the phasing never takes place and with systems going ahead of the arctic front instead of one ahead and another one phasing along the front. Well that is typical of the snow chances this decade.

on to the next decade which looks look to start with unseasonable cold.

On friday flurries should be flying with breezy nw winds and steady temps in the 20’s very similar to Monday.   Next week looks very cold with highs in the 20’s most days and several chances for mainly light snow, though there will likely be a more significant storm toward the end of next week.

quick update for snow chances this week

December 28, 2009

1. Monday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid to upper 30’s. temp forecasts over the weekend were biased a few degrees to low due to more sunshine than expected and have corrected this for Monday. Some  scattered flurries may also be possible from a  nw flow disturbance.

2. Tuesday could very well be the only snow free day of the week with highs in the upper 30’s and mostly sunny skies.

3. The first wave approaches Wednesday night with light snow for the north and central and a mix for the south. Right now I’m trending toward the higher qpf nam solution which yields .05-.1 qpf north .1-.15 central and .15-.25 qpf south. This would translate to a 1/2 inch snow for cvg slightly over an inch for lex and about an inch in the south due to rain mix.Some model runs have had over .25 qpf such as the JMA while the gfs had nothing 24 hrs but is trending wetter with each run.

4. The second wave is of most interest  and should move into Texas thu with precip and strengthen as it moves ne eventually forming a east coast storm by late Friday. The model solutions still vary on this one quite  a bit but this is the best shot for more than light snow accumulations.

5. Snow showers are likely with n to nw flow with an arctic influx of cold with 20:1 snow ratios and snow squalls there is a potential for more accumulation with the highest amounts in the east.

6. check out the 14 day forecast  as well which advertises a well below normal period of temps at the coldest time of year. Dec should finish about 2 below normal temp wise.

Light snow to start out next week, What about it’s end???

December 26, 2009

1. We still have the grinch storm leftovers which will bring a period of snow showers tomorrow through the region lows tonight should be in the mid 20’s with highs in the mid 30’s sunday. As for accumulations temps will be near freezing and qpf amounts look rather low under .05 so it’s coatings for most with up to inch from any moderate to heavy snow showers. 

nam radar sun pm

nam radar sun eve

the majority of this snow shower action should be across the north. the main concern will be for slick spots sunday night when temps fall below freezing.

2. Monday should be windy and cold maybe a leftover flurrie or two with highs near freezing and gusty nw winds continuing.

3. by the middle of the week focus turns to a system forming over texas Wednesday the riding along the gulf coast and up the east coast to ring in 2010.  Right now I see this storm coming in two main waves.

Wednesday pm

Wednesday night

thursday morning

thursday night

friday

saturday

unlike the last system the thickness values should fall below 540 quicker and 850 mb temps are below zero on most of the models. However across the south thickness values are near 540 for the first wave wed pm- thu am meaning a mix of precip is possible there. By Thursday afternoon for the main part of the storm thermal profiles appear favorable for snow regionwide. Of concern is that the euro model is slightly warmer putting the 540 line over central ky for the entire first wave  which would allow for a mix further north. the euro thermal profile by thursday pm on would also yield snow for the second wave. this precip may begin as rain if it comes in Wednesday afternoon with surface temps between 35-38.

early details

– light precip forms over the region from west to east late Wednesday with a mixed bag of precip more snow north and a longer mix south

– break in action for a while Thursday before snow develops late

– snowy new years eve into the first part of new years day

– wind-driven snow showers into Saturday

don’t worry the details of the storm including qpf amounts and precip type for each region will be detailed as this storm gets closer.

Happy Holidays “A Look Ahead”

December 24, 2009

1. We already talked enough about the Grinch storm one more note is a wind advisory is in effect for eastern areas so make sure to tie down any loose objects and have two hands on the wheel while driving as winds will get gusty for a while tonight.

2.  Snow showers are coming for late saturday into Sunday from the leftovers of the Grinch storm. I still expect some coatings out of these with more winterlike temps with upper 20’s for lows and mid 30’s for highs.

3. the 30th in my view still looks  like a good chance for some snow around here with a southern system crossing the gulf coast and cold air in place. right now the gfs model is to suppressed with this feature which is typical the Canadian brings a band of  snow late Wednesday through the region and the euro has the system as well. So the issue how far north does the moisture get and can it trend so far north due to WAA being to strong to give us rain or a mix. My forecast as of now is to bring the GFS track farther north with more moisture as the model is trending in that direction. This track closely follows the very consistent euro model.

first thoughts map for the 30th system light blue means light snow.

4. arctic air should arrive in the first week of Jan I’m looking at a potential 3-5 day period of well below normal temps likely 20’s for highs if not colder.

5. Happy Holidays to all of you out there!!!

(There will be no post Tommorow Christmas Day However I will be back Saturday.)