1. today will likely be the last time we see the sun for a little while. With mostly sunny skies and southerly flow picking up a little bit highs should make it into the the mid 60’s. some high clouds will roll in late ahead of a closed off low which produced an early season snow for some in nebraska and kansas.
2. clouds will increase and thicken tonight leading to warmer lows in the upper 40’s.
3. rain will quickly overspread the region SW to NE by the morning commute on friday and continue through the day possibly moderate to hvy at times highs will be kept in check only reaching the mid 50’s. the rain should turn more showery from SW to NE as the night goes on. the high school football forecast looks wet muddy windy and damp. brings those ponchos umbrellas and jackets.
games in bluegrass- cloudy light rain or showers likely, drizzle 52* se wind 5-10 mph.
games in east ky- cloudy with steady rain moderate to hvy at times 52* se wind near 10 mph.
here some model forecasts for our system, some things to notice
1. the source of cold air for the low gets cut-off and gradually warms so no snowstorm here.
2. the deep tropical connection with the gulf and carribean eventhough a tropical system never formed there is a lot of juice coming north.
3. not a fast mover a typical characteristic with systems that cut-off from the main jet stream.
GFS 06Z run on thursday. 06Z= 1AM Noting the model run since these images refresh on there own.
uh-oh game 3 of the world series in philly.
NAM 12Z run thursday
4. alright mitch enough already I WANT TO KNOW DOES IT CLEAR OUT FOR THE WEEKEND??? well i gave a hint a minute ago saying cut-off lows are slow movers well it looks like this one lingers into saturday eventhough the main plume of moisture shifts east by saturday morning there should still be considerable low clouds fog, drizzle and light rain after starting out in the upper 40’s highs should only reach the mid 50’s.
5. sunday things will finally clear out with lows in the middle 30’s and highs in the mid 50’s however high clouds will roll in by days end ahead of this.
GFS 06Z thursday
that’s a bigtime cold air mass for OCT coming south ahead of the next front clouds and some showers should be found along the front as it pushes through sunday night even with the cloud cover lows should make it into the lower 30’s by late sunday night as the cold airmass coming in will cause temps to drop like a rock, thickness values will fall below 540 and 850 mb temps below -3 which means we may be dealing with —- showers instead of rain showers. the answer to that fill in the blank question is SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
any snow will be very light flurries or a light snow shower for most late sunday night no accumlation with a very warm and dry ground.
GFS 06Z run sunday night
– this cold airmass will stay in place untill wednesday. The NW flow off the lakes should really crank up for the first time along with very windy NW winds as well meaning upslope flow precip is a good bet for mon/tue. with clouds and a strong cold air mass expected to in place i don’t see temps getting out of the low to mid 40’s monday and tuesday and lows below freezing, I expect those low to mid 50’s forecast not to verify b/c there using mos numbers which are underestimating the strength of this airmass and don’t stray from seasonal norms that much.
world series forecast in philly, tampa has a dome.
sat- hvy steady rain 50’s se wind, blowing out to help the hitters.
sun- fair light sw wind 50’s
mon- mostly cloudy 40’s passing showers strong NW wind blowing in to help pitchers.
KY football 80* and sunny in gainesville taking cats and the 23 the defense isn’t that bad.