Archive for October, 2008


October 30, 2008

1. the weather fisaco is over the phills got some timely hits and great plays tonight to win a world series all the phillies deserved to be champions reminding fans what team means, those guys fought hard all year. the rays had a great turn around as well.  I’ve been waiting since i was a little kid for this and did cry a bit as the phills swarmed the mound.

2. enough baseball till after the winter on this weather blog, let’s look at the weekend upcoming after a rather chilly week. a ridge of high pressure is moving into the region kicking out our chilly airmass which did give lexington a T of snow and sleet eventhough the nws doesn’t say so. warmer weather is coming as 850 mb temps rise 20*C over the rest of the week into the weekend. this means sunshine will be out through the weekend and temps will rise with highs back into the 60’s and lows a bit milder in the 40’s, this goes for thursday, friday, saturday and sunday.

election tuesday looks the same as the weekend weatherwise great! NO EXCUSE NOT TO VOTE IF YOUR REGISTERED NO MATTER WHAT PARTY. I was also disapointed about the portrayl of politcal candiates on UK campus today this does not reflect the university of kentucky as a whole or myself.

as for the winter since the weekend will be dull which may is a good thing let’s do a little nov preview which i’m thinking may be similar to 2002.

nov 1-10 mild, dry and warm rain showers late in the period.

nov 10-15 wet turning much colder chance snow flurries  

nov 15-20  fair and chilly rain and snow late most likely rain.

nov 20-31 unseasonabily cold with an accumlating snow.  bold prediction  there we see if that one comes true i know my taking kentucky and the 23 wasn’t a good one.


weather causes world series first

October 28, 2008

1. suspended game ever, rain picked up more than expected in philly and the field condtions got worse after the 4th being bad enough to for a rain delay at the end of the 5th but they waited to long ( mid 6th) before suspending action.

for the game to resume tonight things will need to clear out drastically. so there may be hope for those who watch the show house which is reguarlly on fox at that time.

currently in philly: hvy rain and snow 38* w wind @ 16 mph. my forecast is for rain with a little snow mixed in to contiue through the afternoon turing to drizzle by evening.

for this week’s forecast go to the previous post

weather cam of where i was born vineland,NJ 50 miles southeast of philly


weather cam of downtown philly about 5 miles from the ballpark

I’m hoping it doesn’t clear out so cole hamels would be ready for a game 7.

weather never sleeps

October 26, 2008

1. hvy rain delayed the start of the game 3 in the world series last night. My phills hung on to beat the rays in the 9th at 2am it was well worth staying up a later than usual to watch them but the 7:30 alarm for chruch sounded way to early for my taste. 

2. the sun will hopefully allow me to stay up for today’s exciting sports action  highs should reach the low to mid 60’s with a southerly flow picking up as we await the arrival of a major front high clouds will also increase today.

3. tonight the winds shift around to the nw bringing with them a reminder winter is coming with mostly cloudy skies lows should still fall to the mid 30’s as a very chilly airmass for october settles in. sprinkles and flurries are possible as well.

4. the nw flow should continue through monday and tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain and snow showers depending on time of day of course. clouds the airmass in place and any afternoon instabilty precip ( which would bring more cold air aloft to the surface) should keep highs in the low 40’s lows will be in the upper 20’s to offically end the growing season. we may also talk about wind chills as well for the first time. any very very light coatings would be limited to higher elevations at night.

5. warming trend begins wednesday and thursday with sunshine back in play on the return flow side of that chilly airmass after a chilly start highs should reach the mid 50’s wed and upper 50’s thu.

enjoy the week hopefully thursday we will be talking about the 2008 world series champion phillies, hard to belive for life long fans like myself growing up in south jersey.

wet then wintery weekend ?????

October 23, 2008

1. today will likely be the last time we see the sun for a little while. With mostly sunny skies and southerly flow picking up a little bit highs should make it into the the mid 60’s. some high clouds will roll in late ahead of a closed off low which produced an early season snow for some in nebraska and kansas.

2. clouds will increase and thicken tonight leading to warmer lows in the upper 40’s.

3. rain will quickly overspread the region SW to NE by the morning commute on friday and continue through the day possibly moderate to hvy at times highs will be kept in check only reaching the mid 50’s.  the rain should turn more showery from SW to NE as the night goes on. the high school football forecast looks wet muddy windy and damp. brings those ponchos umbrellas and jackets.

games in bluegrass- cloudy light rain or showers likely, drizzle 52* se wind 5-10 mph.

games in east ky- cloudy with steady rain moderate to hvy at times 52* se wind near 10 mph.

here some model forecasts for our system, some things to notice

1. the source of cold air for the low gets cut-off and gradually warms so no snowstorm here.

2. the deep tropical connection with the gulf and carribean eventhough a tropical system never formed there is a lot of juice coming north.

3. not a fast mover a typical characteristic with systems that cut-off from the main jet stream.

GFS 06Z run on thursday. 06Z= 1AM Noting the model run since these images refresh on there own.

uh-oh game 3 of the world series in philly.


NAM 12Z run thursday

4. alright mitch enough already I WANT TO KNOW DOES IT CLEAR OUT FOR THE WEEKEND??? well i gave a hint a minute ago saying cut-off lows are slow movers well it looks like this one lingers into saturday eventhough the main plume of moisture shifts east by saturday morning there should still be considerable low clouds fog, drizzle and light rain after starting out in the upper 40’s highs should only reach the mid 50’s.

5. sunday things will finally clear out with lows in the middle 30’s and highs in the mid 50’s however high clouds will roll in by days end ahead of this.

GFS 06Z thursday

that’s a bigtime cold air mass for OCT coming south ahead of the next front clouds and some showers should be found along the front as it pushes through sunday night even with the cloud cover lows should make it into the lower 30’s by late sunday night as the cold airmass coming in will cause temps to drop like a rock, thickness values will fall below 540 and 850 mb temps below -3 which means we may be dealing with —- showers instead of rain showers. the answer to that fill in the blank question is SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!

any snow will be very light flurries or a light snow shower for most late sunday night no accumlation with a very warm and dry ground.

GFS 06Z run sunday night

– this cold airmass will stay in place untill wednesday. The NW flow off the lakes should really crank up for the first time along with very windy NW winds as well meaning upslope flow precip is a good bet for mon/tue. with clouds and a strong cold air mass expected to in place i don’t see temps getting out of the low to mid 40’s monday and tuesday and lows below freezing, I expect those low to mid 50’s forecast not to verify b/c there using mos numbers which are underestimating the strength of this airmass and don’t stray from seasonal norms that much.

world series forecast in philly, tampa has a dome.

sat- hvy steady rain 50’s se wind, blowing out to help the hitters. 

sun- fair light sw wind 50’s

mon- mostly cloudy  40’s passing showers strong NW wind blowing in  to help pitchers.

KY football 80* and sunny in gainesville taking cats and the 23 the defense isn’t that bad.

frost tonight

October 21, 2008

another chilly night with expected lows in the lower and mid 30’s regionwide with light winds and clear skies frost should form in most spots particuarlly valleys. frost advisories are up for most of us.

the advisories are in effect for areas north of owen county and east of nicholas ,estill and mc creary counties more areas may be added as well.

protect those plants!

the long range (7-14 days) is looking warmer than it did a couple of days ago.