Winter to reload later this week

south central ky missed on the second batch since that part of the deformation band weakened. first a video of a snow drift I have.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1eNrSnTpmQ not much but still a drift of 8 inches.

1. After lows in the single digits highs should rebound into the mid 20’s with a snowpack which will compact a bit. Lows Sunday night will be near 10 as we get into a bit of southerly flow highs monday may reach freezing ar a touch higher compacting the snowcover even more likely to avg of 2 inches across the region.

2. a low pressure will track well to our southeast and a northerly disturbance may touch off a few flurries Tuesday night after morning lows in the mid 20’s as clouds increase highs may reach the upper 30’s melting the snow a bit leaving an inch on the ground.

3. Wednesday will be fair with another quick moving high over the region with lows in the upper 20’s and highs near 40 taking away the rest of the snow.

4. By late Thursday a low will develop in the gulf and track northeast up the east coast, this track usually means snow or nothing however cold air looks marginal for either rain or snow. We’ll go into the models tomorrow however i don’t agree with the 00z gfs having two lows out of this. However most models suggest an accumulating snow threat of some sort for the region.

storm recap

– the one minus was a dry slot which caused the second part of this system to miss counties along the ky/tenn line and the totals were  a little over.

000
NWUS53 KLMK 301602
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1102 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2010

..TIME..    …EVENT…     …CITY LOCATION…      …LAT.LON…
..DATE..    ….MAG….     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. …SOURCE….
            ..REMARKS..

0424 AM     SNOW             SCOTTSVILLE             36.75N  86.20W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        ALLEN              KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORTS OF 4 INCHES IN ALLEN… BARREN… BUTLER…
            EDMONSON… LOGAN… METCALFE.. .MONROE AND SIMPSON
            COUNTY . REPORTED BY STATE AND LOCAL HIGHWAY DEPT.

0431 AM     SNOW             HODGENVILLE             37.57N  85.74W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        LARUE              KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ALSO 4 INCHES REPORTED IN HART AND GRAYSON COUNTY.

0433 AM     SNOW             CAMPBELLSVILLE          37.35N  85.35W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        TAYLOR             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0434 AM     SNOW             GREENSBURG              37.26N  85.50W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        GREEN              KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0435 AM     SNOW             SHEPHERDSVILLE          37.99N  85.71W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        BULLITT            KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0440 AM     SNOW             RUSSELLVILLE            36.84N  86.89W
01/30/2010  M7.0 INCH        LOGAN              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OVER ONE FOOT DRIFTS..

0451 AM     SNOW             BOWLING GREEN           36.97N  86.44W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        WARREN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DRIFTS TO 7 INCHES

0457 AM     SNOW             GREENSBURG              37.26N  85.50W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        GREEN              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DRIFTS TO 7 INCHES.

0522 AM     SNOW             CAMPBELLSVILLE          37.35N  85.35W
01/30/2010  M8.0 INCH        TAYLOR             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

0531 AM     SNOW             BRANDENBURG             38.00N  86.18W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        MEADE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0533 AM     SNOW             RUSSELL SPRINGS         37.05N  85.08W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        RUSSELL            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

0537 AM     SNOW             HARTFORD                37.45N  86.89W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        OHIO               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0540 AM     SNOW             FORT KNOX               37.89N  85.96W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        HARDIN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0544 AM     SNOW             LEBANON                 37.57N  85.25W
01/30/2010  M7.0 INCH        MARION             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0552 AM     SNOW             GLASGOW                 37.00N  85.92W
01/30/2010  M7.0 INCH        BARREN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0556 AM     SNOW             LOUISVILLE              38.22N  85.74W
01/30/2010  M3.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          KY   NWS OFFICE

0558 AM     SNOW             DANVILLE                37.64N  84.77W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        BOYLE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0602 AM     SNOW             BARDSTOWN               37.81N  85.46W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        NELSON             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0613 AM     SNOW             ELIZABETHTOWN           37.70N  85.87W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        HARDIN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0620 AM     SNOW             FERDINAND               38.23N  86.86W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        DUBOIS             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0633 AM     SNOW             COLUMBIA                37.10N  85.31W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        ADAIR              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0634 AM     SNOW             LIBERTY                 37.32N  84.93W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        CASEY              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0635 AM     SNOW             BOWLING GREEN           36.97N  86.44W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        WARREN             KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

0644 AM     SNOW             ALBANY                  36.69N  85.14W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        CLINTON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0651 AM     SNOW             BOSTON                  37.78N  85.67W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        NELSON             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0729 AM     SNOW             GREENSBURG              37.26N  85.50W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        GREEN              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0738 AM     SNOW             BARDSTOWN               37.81N  85.46W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        NELSON             KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

0743 AM     SNOW             BRANDENBURG             38.00N  86.18W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        MEADE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0751 AM     SNOW             LEXINGTON               38.04N  84.46W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        FAYETTE            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOTHERN PART OF COUNTY.

0754 AM     SNOW             ENGLISH                 38.33N  86.46W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 AM     SNOW             CAMPBELLSVILLE          37.35N  85.35W
01/30/2010  M7.0 INCH        TAYLOR             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DRIFTS UP TO TWO FEET.

0802 AM     SNOW             MARROWBONE              36.82N  85.50W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        CUMBERLAND         KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0821 AM     SNOW             SCOTTSVILLE             36.75N  86.20W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        ALLEN              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0832 AM     SNOW             RUSSELL SPRINGS         37.05N  85.08W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        RUSSELL            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0834 AM     SNOW             BIRDSEYE                38.31N  86.70W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        DUBOIS             IN   COCORAHS

0835 AM     SNOW             WOODBURN                36.84N  86.53W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        WARREN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DRIFTS FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES.

0837 AM     SNOW             PRICEVILLE              37.37N  85.98W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        HART               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

0841 AM     SNOW             LEWISPORT               37.93N  86.90W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        HANCOCK            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0855 AM     SNOW             FERDINAND               38.23N  86.86W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        DUBOIS             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0859 AM     SNOW             BOWLING GREEN           36.97N  86.44W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        WARREN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OFFICIAL SNOW OBSERVER FOR NWS.

0916 AM     SNOW             PARIS                   38.21N  84.26W
01/30/2010  M3.0 INCH        BOURBON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0917 AM     SNOW             NEW CASTLE              38.43N  85.17W
01/30/2010  E3.0 INCH        HENRY              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0918 AM     SNOW             CYNTHIANA               38.39N  84.30W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        HARRISON           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0921 AM     SNOW             VERSAILLES              38.05N  84.73W
01/30/2010  M3.0 INCH        WOODFORD           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0922 AM     SNOW             WINCHESTER              38.00N  84.19W
01/30/2010  E4.0 INCH        CLARK              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0924 AM     SNOW             RICHMOND                37.74N  84.29W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        MADISON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0925 AM     SNOW             STANFORD                37.53N  84.66W
01/30/2010  E4.0 INCH        LINCOLN            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0927 AM     SNOW             LANCASTER               37.62N  84.58W
01/30/2010  E5.0 INCH        GARRARD            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0928 AM     SNOW             SPRINGFIELD             37.69N  85.22W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        WASHINGTON         KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

0929 AM     SNOW             TELL CITY               37.95N  86.76W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        PERRY              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0930 AM     SNOW             FLOYDS KNOBS            38.32N  85.87W
01/30/2010  M3.0 INCH        FLOYD              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0933 AM     SNOW             FAIRDALE                38.11N  85.76W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0946 AM     SNOW             NICHOLASVILLE           37.88N  84.58W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        JESSAMINE          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0947 AM     SNOW             PAOLI                   38.56N  86.47W
01/30/2010  E2.0 INCH        ORANGE             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0948 AM     SNOW             LAWRENCEBURG            38.03N  84.89W
01/30/2010  E5.0 INCH        ANDERSON           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0952 AM     SNOW             TOMPKINSVILLE           36.70N  85.69W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        MONROE             KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

0955 AM     SNOW             MORGANTOWN              37.22N  86.70W
01/30/2010  M6.0 INCH        BUTLER             KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

0956 AM     SNOW             SHEPHERDSVILLE          37.99N  85.71W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        BULLITT            KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

1005 AM     SNOW             WINCHESTER              38.00N  84.19W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        CLARK              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

1017 AM     SNOW             CLARKSON                37.49N  86.22W
01/30/2010  M5.0 INCH        GRAYSON            KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

1019 AM     SNOW             DANVILLE                37.64N  84.77W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        BOYLE              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

1029 AM     SNOW             RICHMOND                37.74N  84.29W
01/30/2010  M8.0 INCH        MADISON            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1030 AM     SNOW             LOUISVILLE              38.22N  85.74W
01/30/2010  M4.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          KY   NWS OFFICE

            AT THE NWS OFFICE IN SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
835 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2010

…TOTALS FROM LAST NIGHT/S SNOWFALL…

SNOW OVERTOOK MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY LAST EVENING AND CONTINUED…
HEAVY AT TIMES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO THESE TOTALS ARE JUST PRELIMINARY
AND SUBJECT TO BE ADDED TO. BELOW IS A LISTING OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY COUNTY FROM REPORTS RECEIVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSON THROUGH 8:30 AM. THE SOURCES FOR THE REPORTS INCLUDE TRAINED
SPOTTERS…HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS…LAW ENFORCEMENT PERSONNEL…
CO-OPERATIVE OBSERVERS AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC.

COUNTY…….AMOUNTS

HARLAN…….10 INCHES…16 INCHES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN
WAYNE……..8 INCHES
JOHNSON……7 INCHES
FLOYD……..7 INCHES
PIKE………7 INCHES
WHITLEY……7 INCHES
MARTIN…….6 TO 8 INCHES
LETCHER……6 TO 8 INCHES
KNOTT……..6 TO 8 INCHES
BELL………6 TO 8 INCHES
LESLIE…….6 TO 7 INCHES
JACKSON……6 INCHES
LAUREL…….6 INCHES
LEE……….6 INCHES
BREATHITT….6 INCHES
ESTILL…….6 INCHES
MAGOFFIN…..6 INCHES
CLAY………6 INCHES
ROCKCASTLE…6 INCHES
POWELL…….5 TO 7 INCHES
PULASKI……5 TO 6 INCHES
MCCREARY…..5 INCHES
KNOX………5 INCHES
OWSLEY…….5 INCHES
PERRY……..5 INCHES
WOLFE……..5 INCHES
MORGAN…….4 INCHES
MENIFEE……4 INCHES
ELLIOTT……3 TO 6 INCHES
BATH………2 INCHES
MONTGOMERY…2 INCHES
FLEMING……2 INCHES
ROWAN……..1 INCH

looking ahead highs will be in the 20’s with single digit lows this weekend, there is a chance of light snow this weekend and another system late next week.

slight upward jump to totals

video on last post.

I’m using a blend of  the ruc and the 00z nam from here on out. the feedback issues over the south with the gfs are causing some problems with it’s model output.  snow ratios are 15:1 with this event with .15 qpf as a avg for mesonet stations around bwg with 2-3 inches on the ground as of 10 pm ct.

nam qpf

lhere is a link to the ruc it comes out every hour you will need to scroll down a bit on the page.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

updated map

FINAL CALL

 The models have converged on a similar solution will lean away from the gfs and more toward the nam, sref and candian models.

nam snowfall map the ratios with these maps appear to be near 13:1 which sounds fine to me.

gfs 12z snow map

the sref is on the last post and the Canadian is similar to the nam. I also did notice the 18z gfs trend wetter for 1-64.

4:00 update

radar

sref- short range ensembles qpf for this system

the latest ruc brings the 540 line to the southern ky pkwy, still can’t rule out a touch of sleet south of that line. light snow should continue across the southern ky pkwy untill 6 pm and flurries should begin in the e-town, Jackson and Danville areas by then as the precip sheild creeps north.  I will issue my final call at 6 pm et.