Archive for February, 2010

upcoming storm not looking to promising

February 28, 2010

well the cold will be in place this week a track to our south from texas to Carolina. The bad part is the phasing and development of the storm won’t really take place till it’s east of us. This means snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday with light accums maybe some inch totals here and there with 1-3 southeast. We have a few days untill then.

1. Sunday will be a mostly cloudy maybe fair across the south and west as the leftovers of the noreaster diminish across the region with more light snow showers across the north and east however little additional accumulations are expected any many places will fall short of the snow map totals as that period of snow just encountered to much dry air. highs will range from the mid 30’s ne to mid 40’s sw.

2. looking at the model images for monday this storm would appear to give us a good chance for snow as it moves eastward. However high pressure moving in from Canada and the fact is only very week will mean precip mainly stays to our south. with a good deal of sun highs should get into the 40’s.

gfs mon pm

the main storm only gives us a glancing blow as it doesn’t get it act going till it reaches florida and turns northward. However an upper air disturbance and outer edges of this storm should give the region some snow showers both days and nights with lows in the 20’s and highs in the mid 30’s though near 40 which may mean some daytime rain as well there. accums should stay light but I’m still watching for far eastern ky to catch some steady snow Tuesday night which make it an advisory event there.

gfs tue night

This was supposed the grand finale which a week ago all the models had a 6+ snow here what happened???

A: the new england noreaster which the models did not have a good handle on the cut-off nature of this storm led to a 500 mb pattern more condusive for a track farther south

B: the models last Sunday did not have a weak wave which tracked across the deep south yesterday. This will lead to less moisture in place for this storm

C: Modeling also did not have the high coming in with a stronger northerly flow which will also favor a further south track.

3. warm-up starts late this week with WAA coming in waves look for temp busts again though not as bad as last weekend, I for one picked up on the reminder not to underestimate this after last weekend’s hard lesson/bust. my 14 day forecast will be updated in a few. This warm-up will likely to lead to a plains low with a thunderstorm event here around the 9th then  much colder air and still some more snow chances.

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short term: winter weather advisory north and east (added long range)

February 26, 2010

sorry for the lack of info on this system it has been a long week and this system crept up on me. Basically a piece of the nor-easter is breaking off and heading southwest through the region as it gets further away from the main low this shield of mainly snow should weaken as moves from northeast to southwest. A steady snow will move in for areas ne of e-town tonight and diminish to scattered snow showers which will persist through Sunday with a little  upslope flow later this weekend into the mix as well.  precip will be lighter further sw and may mix with rain in the afternoons.

radar

Central Great Lakes sector loop

 the models are putting out some decent qpf with this

above: nam below; gfs

snow map through the weekend

slick spots will be possible with temps going below freezing with low in the 20’s and highs in the mid 30’s most places to 40 southwest.

long range

we still have cold weather in place and another chance for snow on tuesday with the thinking the air will be cold enough aloft to support all snow statewide. The models are coming further north but i still see the potential for another northward shift. right now Tuesday would another snow shower/ steady light snow event with a lot of 1’s and a 3 or two for the high end totals.

quick notes main post later

February 26, 2010

1. will add snow showers to forecast for late tonigh through early Sunday some areas could an inch or two north and east of LEX.

2. at least light snow is looking more likely for Tuesday.

Never give up Never Surrender!!!!

February 25, 2010

Take a look at the 12z candain run early next week for our well advertised storm.

This would bring a snowy Tuesday to the region and I continue to think the operational gfs is big time lost. The models for the last few days have been generally south of us with this storm however the 12z run of the cmc confirms a comeback to the north for this storm is possible. So even though the op gfs is not showing any measurable snow, never give up never surrender!!! That is of course if you want some snow.

advisories in effect through late this morning

February 25, 2010

the nws has issued winter weather advisories for the most of the areas I outlined for a coating to 2 inches of snow, ( ne of a e-town to Somerset line) I still expect this to be true with most places close to the coating. The o ne exception is the far se counties bordering Virgina that are under a winter storm warning where some heavier snow showers moved through totals higher than 2 inches can be found there. look out for slick spots on roadways with temps below freezing.  snow showers will be likely till about noontime due to this upper level disturbance.

radar

Central Great Lakes sector loop

looking ahead don’t expect another weekend like last as i will have toadd  a snow shower chance with wind and cold for the weekend. Wednesday’s euro runs which i think is the correct solution for next week have southern and se ky possibly getting clipped by light snow late Tuesday, so I haven’t given up yet.

A few days ago we took at a look at the AO which was expected to rise and led me to think milder times are ahead by the 15th. Well the expected rise in this teleconnection is not expected to be as much now which is an indicator old man winter may be stubbornly in place till the third week of March.