2-4 rain coming? ( flash flood watches have been issued as expected)

another update on the rain coming as my concern for flash flooding is increasing for many of us, for this forecast today i used a blend of the 12z gem, gfs and Nam models along with the last run of the ruc extrapolated.

– showers and storms develop this afternoon and become hvy and widespread overnight as next low moves in these last into the rush hour Friday

– i expect several flash flood warnings to be issued partcuarlay in the zone shown on my maps

map 1  rain totals by noon Friday

map 2 risk of a flood warning being issued for your county

 

ruc 11 pm storms organizing over west tenn and ky

 

nam 1 am 12z run same idea

gfs 1am same idea again with storms organizing this evening to our sw near low

stormy rush hour 12z runs nam and gfs

model totals

nam above gfs below

I’ll be back saturday with a full weekend forecast, tommorow is the first of several moving days between now and Aug 21st to my house in Bowling Green. sat will feature a slight storm chance and mid 80’s for highs.

update:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2009

…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT…

.A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH AN EXTREMELY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE…RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
MAY RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS.

KYZ027-041>043-046>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-310400-
/O.NEW.KLMK.FF.A.0002.090731T0100Z-090731T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAYSON KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LEITCHFIELD…LEXINGTON…PARIS…
CARLISLE…SPRINGFIELD…HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…
WINCHESTER…HODGENVILLE…LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…
RICHMOND…MORGANTOWN…BROWNSVILLE…MUNFORDVILLE…GREENSBURG…
CAMPBELLSVILLE…LIBERTY…STANFORD…RUSSELLVILLE…
BOWLING GREEN…FRANKLIN…SCOTTSVILLE…GLASGOW…
TOMPKINSVILLE…EDMONTON…COLUMBIA…JAMESTOWN…BURKESVILLE…
ALBANY
333 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2009 /233 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009/

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…NORTH
  CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS…IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…BOURBON…
  BOYLE…CLARK…FAYETTE…GARRARD…JESSAMINE…
  MADISON…MERCER AND NICHOLAS COUNTIES. IN NORTH CENTRAL
  KENTUCKY…LARUE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. IN SOUTH CENTRAL
  KENTUCKY…ADAIR…ALLEN…BARREN…BUTLER…CASEY…CLINTON…
  CUMBERLAND…EDMONSON…GRAYSON…GREEN…HART…LINCOLN…LOGAN…MARION…
  METCALFE…MONROE…RUSSELL…SIMPSON…TAYLOR AND WARREN COUNTIES.

* FROM 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED…BUT
  THUNDERSTORMS COULD DROP 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER SMALL AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.

thursday rain chances/ schedule update

showers and storms should end over the next few hours with the next low quickly on it’s way.

let’s look at the model progression again

18z nam

thu pm

thu eve

thu overnight/ fri am

18z gfs

thu pm

thu eve

thu overnight

the 12z runs were more agressive on rain totals from this but both sets of runs bring showers and storms through tommorow and early friday. rememeber there’s convective feedback issues as well so more general rain than shown.

– storms should become likely by thursday afternoon with a hvy rain threat for some areas

– periods of storms will continue into the rush hour friday the highest concentration of storms should be around sunrise

– i could see totals of an inch again for a lot of folks, inclduing those sw of lex which missed on wednesday’s chances

– highs will be near 80 thursday and friday

schedule update

fri jul 31- no post, first day of several moving to bowling green

wed aug 5- no post, having wisdom teeth removed early in day hopefully i will be back with you on the 6th.

wednesday rain chances

let’s look at the models for wednesday

18z nam

wed am

wed pm

wed eve

18z gfs

wed am

wed pm

wed eve

my thoughts

– showers and a few storms are already overspreading the region and should really pick up toward the morning commute

– they will be numerous tomorrow mainly in the morning then there should be a midday break before more showers and thunder late in the day

– storms will have a hvy rain threat this was seen in west KY today with several localized flood warnings

– models above having convective feedback issues look for more general rains than the “blob” totals the models have i still think along with the nws that an inch is realistic for most of us  by early Thursday

tomorrow night we’ll look at Thursday night’s rain chances which may bring more of a flood threat

tuesday am update

for those who often check in the mornings I’m going to try and do more frequent shorter updates, a full update detailing tonight’s and Wednesday’s rain will be posted later today.

– bulk of storms should move in late tonight instead of Wednesday

– next round of storms may hold off till early Friday, rain chances diminish for the twilight festival in Versailles

– flooding is still a concern later in the week

more flood threats coming?

`1.Last night was the first time i have seen thunderstorm development after 11 when there was little if any cap during the day or a large complex already moving in.  for many this was a classic training set-up with likely and outflow boundary which just waited longer than other outflow boundaries, several rounds of storms created the threat in se ky with less training. what suprised me was the quick reformation in areas which already had storms and a more stable airmass.  overnight quite a few areas received 1-3 inches of rain including most of the Lexington metro and a large section of se ky, some flood warnings and adv’s are still in effect for the far eastern counties.

2. monday will be our dryest day of the week with highs in the lower to mid 80’s a southerly and humid/moist flow will be in place as well.

3.  Tuesday the next front will be moving into the upper Midwest while the very moist southerly flow continues to stream into the bluegrass possibly enough for a late afternoon storm or two with coverage under 30% leading to high humidity levels and highs in the mid 80’s.

4. Wednesday will be very wet from midday on as this front slows up over the upper ohiovalley southeast into the mid Mississippi valley low pressure will form near paducah during the day and with ample moisture continuing to stream north numerous showers and storms will be found some with very hvy rains as dewpoints should be in the low 70’s with highs in the low 80’s due to extensive clouds.

gfs wed pm

the nam has a broader low

both models bring lots of thunderstorms through wednesday night with the likelyhood of excessive rainfall from widespread storms, i could easily see 1-2 inches of rain wednesday for many of us. a few storms may have gusty winds but rain will be the main threat.

5. thursday will see one low pressure move out with thunderstorms and another one move in thursday night with more thunderstorms and more hvy rains, this is when the greatest flood threat is this week. highs again will be under 85 due to clouds and condtions will still be very humid.

gfs thu night

6. this gets us to a BIG Friday for myself and the city of Versailles. first it’s the start of moving in down in bowling green so i can start my graduate school program @ WKU in geoscience/ meteorology in Aug, second it’s the twlight festival in Versailles that night a huge city event. as of now there is still a storm chance from the lingering front and highs in the mid 80’s.  I’ll have more on twitter about Friday from a personal view.