Archive for June, 2008

4th of july forecast

June 29, 2008

1. the trough will still be in place monday for an isolated shower due to daytime heating and instabilty otherwise one of the most pleasant days this summer as we head into july lows in the the 50’s highs into the 70’s.

2. tuesday will be a transtion day to summer time high pressure back into the low 60’s/80’s flow.

3. wednesday will be a bit hotter as southerly flow cranks up the heat and humidity on the back side of the high highs in the mid 80’s not to bad.

5. clouds should be more numerous thursday but still low to mid 80’s for highs thunderstorm chances start in the afternoon. not to bad temp wise for july.

6. these storm chances last through the 4th as well as temps cool off slightly IT’S ALL ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. does it come thursday, friday, saturday or stall over us????? time and future model runs will tell. watching the tropics as well.

counting last night we have had 3 moderate risk outlooks for our county and 30 mile area this month all three have failed to produce severe weather.  there rut continues at the spc.

 

 

upgrade to moderate risk today

June 28, 2008

the spc has upgraded the region to a moderate risk for severe storms today with a highted risk for damaging winds. the main reason for doing this is due to an upper level disturbance moving through which tend to aid storm delevopment. cloud cover will hold off storm formation untill this afternoon but the atmosphere is moist and unstable enough for several severe clusters to fire several clusters today with the potential of wind damage, isolated hail and hvy rain. the stormy period will last into sunday am as well.

damging wind chances notice the hatched zone showing the best chance for very strong winds above severe limits.

updates as needed i have a felling there will be a few of these.

thunderstorms firing updated

June 27, 2008

1. more outflow boundries have pushed into the region today already triggering scattered to numerous storms, these will be usual summertime storms with brief hvy rain and lightning with very humid condtions after the storms pass. temps should be knocked into the mid 80’s b/c of this.

2. tonight storms chances will continue and we will watch the northwest for any complexs and there asscoiated clouds, one has formed over western indiana and kentucky with several warnings and may move toward the bluegrass lows will be in the 60’s. those summertime storms should dye off by mid evening. 

3. saturday looks like a washout. any complexs that fire to our northwest overnight will move through in the morning otherwise some sun will peak out as we wait for the afternoon. a strong cold front will push through during the afternoon and night with clusters of thunderstorms forming along the front. The front  may slow down as well  saturday night. There several things to watch for

– this front has spring like dynamics ( lots of instability) with summertime temps. the wind fields are favorable for any of these storms to produce damaging straight line winds.

spc outlook

I like only the slight risk for now with uncertainites from where clusters may form tonight that give a lot of cloud cover which stablizies the air, the atmosphere will become unstable tommorow but morning clouds could work against new storms for a few hours.

damaging wind chances ( there may be isolated hail but that is not a big concern of mine)

models are also indicating the front to slow up as previously stated keeping the chances for hvy rain and thunder well into the night after the severe threat moves east. storms may also move over some of the same areas on a northeast to southwest line.

hpc rain forecasts some areas get up to 2 inches of rain the models like the heavier totals as well.

 

to recap straight line winds and to much rain are the threats tommorow. but for now my yard can use the water and hopefully we can squeeze in a calm hour or two tommorow for any outdoor activites. storms should end early on sunday as cooler weather builds in.

4th of july- scatt to numerous storms mid 80’s it could be similar to  this saturday.

the rest of this week

June 25, 2008

1. well the good times are coming to an end as a warm front with heat and humidity have pushed through. this will lead to isolated storms thursday and friday as humidity levels are going up along with the temps highs will be in the upper 80’s with 60’s not 50’s for lows like the last several nights. a brief downpour lightning and strong winds may be found with these storms. most of you should stay dry.

2. a strong cold front will move through on saturday for the weekend with bands of showers and storms some of which may be severe as the usual suspects to produce severe weather may be in place.  here’s to your yard getting wet from this, lawns are going brown here in versailles and southern ky is close to entering a slight drought.

3. this front brings in cooler air for early next week.

4. july 4th update- scatt storms mid 80’s.

short and sweet

June 23, 2008

a summer time pattern is in place which means same old same old.  let’s make this short and sweet.

1. tommorow will still be nice  with highs below 85 and a very slight storm chance.

2. can we do the rest of the week in one sentence??? week fronts will be an increased chance of scattered storms each day through friday with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 80’s, rain chances go up for the weekend.

not bad needed the comma for help.