Bad news east ky snow fans

by

Tuesday thoughts

1. This front is moving quicker than expected not only does it mess me up with my forecast for MI in the national wxchallenge but for you folks out east toward Pikeville and Ashland expecting a period of snow Wednesday Morning. Both the GFS and NAM have really backed off and if the 12z runs continue the trend I may have to remove any accumulation out of the forecast. Let’s hope an east ky snowdome isn’t coming back. This front will bring gusty winds to 40 mph and rainfall of around 1 inch.

2. Taking out flurries for Thu-Fri may get burned here but I’m just not seeing much.

3. speaking of not seeing much that was the 18z gfs run on our storm threat next week. The gfs is out to lunch and the ensemble spread gives it away the model is not doing well. That being said after a 00z euro run which gave bwg 6 inches of snow the next run implies light snow over the tenn valley middle next week and the cmc is flip-flop mode as well but the 12z run of the cmc and the jma show a good potential for accumulating snow tue-wed of next week. Sticking the course for now and feel confident in my thinking. The 12z jma out to 144 hours is a link to the side on this webpage and I’m in agreement with it.

– system A: tracks across the Ohio valley this weekend then deepens slightly off the coast of atlantic Canada

– system B: cuts underneath trough behind system A and moves across gulf coast states, band of accumulating snow to the north.

Advertisements

6 Responses to “Bad news east ky snow fans”

  1. mitch Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    MCCREARY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 830 PM EST TUESDAY

    * AT 1024 AM EST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
    INDICATED AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
    MORE HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OVER TENNESSEE
    AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH
    EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE TO TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS
    FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA IN THE PAST SIX HOURS AND ANOTHER INCH
    TO AN INCH AND A HALF SHOULD FALL OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA
    THROUGH 2 PM EST…ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA
    LOCATED TO THE EAST OF A SOMERSET TO MONTICELLO LINE. ALTHOUGH
    PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
    FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED…FLOODING OF CREEKS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
    BY THIS AFTERNOON AS RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN COLLECTS INTO THE
    LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS.

  2. Seth Says:

    The gfs still seems to be having issues with the upcoming two systems. However, it throws more frozen moisture behind this current system….if I’m reading it right.

  3. mitch Says:

    big time Seth the gfs should be shot and put out of it’s misery. The GFS bias is to surpress things way to far south and put way to much stock into the northern branch. By the way folks the song of the day is oh Canada oh Canada after taking a glance at the 12z cmc run. 00z euro also coming back somewhat after the 12z mishap yesturday. model mayham will continue for a few more days. make sure to read MJ’s discussion a very good read on this potential storm.

  4. mitch Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    BELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    EAST CENTRAL LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    HARLAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    LESLIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHWESTERN LETCHER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 730 PM EST

    * AT 140 PM EST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
    AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL
    HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR
    MORE WAS OVER TENNESSEE AND MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. SO FAR
    THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE
    EARLIER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AN INCH TO AND INCH
    AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 430 PM
    EST.

  5. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    FLASH FLOOD WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    642 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    BELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    HARLAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    LESLIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    MCCREARY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHWESTERN LETCHER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 1230 AM EST

    * AT 636 PM EST…FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARNED
    AREA…AS ONE AND A HALF TO THREE PLUS INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
    OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA SINCE LAST NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF
    INCH OF RAIN OR MORE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA BEFORE
    MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: