4th of July forecast

Many of us are looking to celebrate independence day by watching some of these.

that should get us ready for the 4th! Source: Google

Earlier in the week I mentioned caution with the outlook on the 4th with Hurricane Alex potentially being pulled northeast into an approaching trough. However modeling over the last few days has indicated the presence of a strong ridge developing from the Ohio valley to east coast by early next week. This ridge should strong enough to keep the region dry through the 4th.

1. We will still be under the influence of this cool shot of Canadian air for Thursday and Friday with sunny skies and highs near 80.

2. By Saturday the flow will turn southerly meaning an increase in humidity and temps with lows back in the 60’s and highs in the mid 80’s. This trend continues for the 4th with lows in the upper 60’s and highs near 90 making it  a hot and dry 4th.

Alex into Mexico

I expect Alex to become a hurricane later today and move west into Mexico or extreme south Texas this week. Tropical moisture from Alex will be still shunted north into the Texas and the deep south and this still of some concern by Sunday of impacting our region, I’ll still leave scattered (30%) storm chances at this point. However the chances of widespread tropical rains and a full impact from the leftover tropical low center are slim at this point which was a possibility in the modeling the last few days.  Another tropical system may form along a front in the gulf of Mexico by the 4th.

Heat wave going going and gone

We have had a very long stretch of hot weather over the past month or so across the region. A break from the heat is on the way!!!!!!

1. First the front which had a few storms run out ahead of it on Sunday moves through the region on Monday. Periods of showers and storms are likely with highs in the mid 80’s. The main threats from thunderstorms will be gusty winds and hvy rains. Once again severe indices are marginal similar to Sunday across the region so an isolated severe storm or two is possible. ( will update on Monday as needed with discussions, watches or warnings)

2.  Behind the front we will settle into a nw flow pattern with Canadian high pressure just to our northeast bringing in cooler and dryer air, also of note is this upper level low near buffalo which is the core of this shot of welcome cooler air.

with the nw flow highs should be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s with dryer air and lighter winds lows should be near or even under 60 each day Tuesday through Thursday.  Mostly sunny skies are expected as well thanks to the high nearby each day.

3. As for  4th of July plans all eyes should be focused on Alex in the gulf. One scenario brings Alex sharply northward late this week taking it into Texas then northward into the miss valley, with KY on the eastern portion of this thunderstorms would be widespread for the holiday weekend with a severe threat that accompanies tropical systems. However another scenario is for Alex to hit Mexico and lead to a much dryer holiday. I’ll update the status of Alex several times over the next few days, right now I’m giving equal weight to both solutions at this time.

afternoon thunderstorm update

I have had to add a chance of isolated storms today as some isolated storms have fired along an old boundary well out ahead of tomorrow’s front.

Right now there is a cluster of storms with gusty winds heading toward the cincy area. another strong storm is heading the southern portions of the Lexington metro.  Ahead of these scattered storms there is a lot of cape ( energy for the storms to work with today) however other atmospheric factors for severe weather are very marginal at best. The circled area could have isolated severe weather this afternoon with no watch anticipated.

Hot this weekend and thoughts on Alex

Tropical storm Alex has formed. After several days of going back and forth between tracks the modeling now in the past 24 hours have a much tighter cluster for a potential track into mexico by the middle of next week.

here is the NHC’s path of Alex

Back in Kentucky another surge of heat has come into the region with highs once again in the 90-95 range and heat index values close to 100. The next front will bring a thunderstorm chance Monday.