full update later tonight after 11:00 pm ct

highlights

– very heavy rain this weekend

– isolated severe weather

– flooding is likely mainly on sunday

I’m going to look at some of the evening model runs before offically updating. A flash flood watch is in effect for the region as well.

on track for a derby washout

1.  Our region will be on the backside of a high and ahead of a strong slow moving cold front Thursday and Friday this will lead to increasing southerly winds which could be very gusty with a strong low level jet in place. The strong southerly winds will also transport lots of gulf moisture north into the region moisture will also being streaming in from the pacific ahead of the next frontal boundary. This front should begin to spread to spread showers and thunderstorms into the region by Friday night but as it does so the eastward movement will slow as it encounters resistance from the eastern ridge. Highs will likely range from 77-84 with warmer overnight lows as well.

2. This frontal Boundary will stall or meander throughout the weekend in our region with several rounds of thunderstorms, lots of moisture will still be streaming into the region and the showers and storms will move parallel along the front known as training. This se-up can very easily lead to excessive rainfall over the region this weekend. clouds and precip will keep temperatures in check as well only in the 70’s for highs. My thinking now is instability needed for widespread severe weather will be somewhat limited by the shear amount of rain and cloudcover along the frontal boundary. however some strong to severe storms are possible along the initial period of thunderstorms as there be a window for the atmosphere to become unstable ahead of the front, another window for severe weather is if the front can retreat north on Sunday bringing the region further into warm sector away from the steady showers and storms. Overall the main threat is for excessive rainfall this weekend with severe weather as a secondary threat but some strong storms with gusty winds are possible.

18z gfs rainfall for this weekend.

the storm prediction center has our region outlined for a day 4 severe risk on Saturday.

I’m thinking this front hangs into the region through the middle of next week this theory for a continued extended hvy rain event beyond this weekend has merit from the the JMA model and the gfs ensembles.

storm recap and frost advisory

storm summary from the nws in louisville, video of mercer county tornado as well.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=april24_2010

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 PM EDT TUE APR 27 2010

…FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA AND EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED TO FORM.

INZ078-079-092-KYZ031>043-045>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082-
280830-
/O.NEW.KLMK.FR.Y.0003.100428T0700Z-100428T1300Z/
SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CLARK IN-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-
SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-
WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SCOTTSBURG…MADISON…LA GRANGE…
BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…SHELBYVILLE…FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…
CYNTHIANA…TAYLORSVILLE…LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…
LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…BARDSTOWN…SPRINGFIELD…
HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…LEBANON…DANVILLE…
LANCASTER…RICHMOND…GREENSBURG…CAMPBELLSVILLE…LIBERTY…
STANFORD…TOMPKINSVILLE…EDMONTON…COLUMBIA…JAMESTOWN…
BURKESVILLE…ALBANY
343 PM EDT TUE APR 27 2010 /243 PM CDT TUE APR 27 2010/

…FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT
/8 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM
EDT /8 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY.

* LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
  TO MID 30S. SHELTERED AREAS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD FALL TO
  FREEZING OR BELOW FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

* AREAS OF WIDESPREAD FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
  FROST COULD DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS IF THEY ARE
  NOT PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

The next update will detail the flooding threat for late this week.

derby style washout???

looking ahead to saturday thunderstorms are likely for the derby. Right now i’m seeing a frontal boundary which will move back and forth over Kentucky. i’m thinking this might bring an end to the drought with minor flooding issues by the middle of next week.  there is a chance of rain this tuesday as well.

Back from spotting in BWG and a quick break

now onto my coverage for you folks in east ky.  I will be posting live comments on the severe storms in progress.