it’s a small one but…..

1.  there is a rain chance on tuesday which will be the turning point this week weatherwise. monday sunshine and low 80’s will continue. a cold front will come through tuesday with only a small shower chance but a decent balst of cooler air and gusty winds, highs will fall back into the 70’s.

tuesday noon (GFS)

NAM tuesday noon

 

3. I think condtions will continue to be cloduy blustry and more fall like through wednesday with highs only in the 60’s some lake effect sprinkles and upslope showers ( far SE) are possible as the wind direction behind the front is ideal for some upslope stuff. the gfs shows this nicely.

4. the wind flow turns more westerly for thursday and friday as high pressure builds in and temps rebound into the 70’s.

shout out to the philadelphia phillles for clinching the NL east!!!!!!!!!

weekend ahead ( updated)

2. friday will see clouds wind and even shower chances pick up to a little over 50% by saturday morning from a tropical system moving from the carolina coast west into the apps due to ridging in new england, the exact postion of the low will determine the extent of shower coverage on our side of the mountains. NWS chances still low there thinking is for downsloping ( moisture gets rung out on the east side of the apps leaving nothing but rain shadows on our side of the apps) to be a major player. That is a concern of mine with this set-up however most of the models do bring rain at much higher chances than 20% into the region except for the model of choice by so many which has been  not doing well recently,the GFS. let the model war begin!!!!!! ( models have trended east today with any rain showers)

sat image of tropical system

NAM radar

fri noon

sref ensembles

CMC model

euro

3. the low may hang around into saturday as well with more clouds showers and wind again postion is key highs should held down in the 70’s both friday and saturday. again chances about 50%

4. sunday should see clearing condtions and a chance to get outdoor activities in.

 

friday night football forecast

tates creek@ paul dunbar cloudy, windy 10 mph NE 30% rain showers 67*

casey county @ jackson county cloudy, windy 20 mph NE 60% rain showers  66*

UK VS WKU SAT 7PM

cloudy N wind 10-15 MPH 40% rain showers 65*

The Week Ahead and a CFS winter sneak peek

1. surprise on an isolated scale on saturday just enough moisture came north against the flow from a week disturbance to produce a storm or two even with with high pressure in control, NAM actually had the storm chance for western ky for this disturbance. The same may be said for sunday 80 or so with an even less storm chance than today.

2. don’t worry the disturbance leaves by monday keeping the dry streak going for almost all of us. sunny skies through the week with highs near 80.

3. tropical trouble off the east coast with a low forming off the carolina coast, maybe into a subtropical storm and a tropical wave pushing into the bahammas by the weekend. P.S: the CMC has rain from this by week’s end.

CFS winter look ahead today’s run was one that is a dream run for snow and cold lovers much different than a even a week ago which had a very warm winter. this thing changes wildly every day remember that. this is just for fun!!!!!

(updated)

thanksgiving flakes??

 

pre-chirstmas winter storm

early jan snow

the big one

winter to the extreme

 this run of the cfs gives the region around 30 inches of snow way above avg ( 10 was the total on monday’s run) hope you enjoyed the sneak peak.

same old song and dance

1. friday through sunday should see high pressure in control with highs near 80 and light winds with very little in the way of clouds are biggest moments will be a NE wind shifting from 2 to 4 mph and going from sunny to partly cloudy.

2. high pressure in control for long stretches has been a recuring theme recently and will continue to be the case. the next small chance of rain is not untill sept 28 from ironically a tropical system off the east coast.

some events

ryder cup  ( i don’t really follow golf but this event is close to home this year)

all three days. light jackets may be needed

AM: chilly, clear morning dew on the grass light wind 50*

noon: sunny light wind 70*

eve: partly cloudy little wind. high 79*

high school football

woodford county@ bryan station fair 74* light wind.

Bell county@ rockcastle county fair 72* light wind.

 

enjoy this great weather that gives weatherman like me a semi-vacation  but it comes at a price

IKE recap

recap of IKE

1. sunday’s wind

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=sep_14_08

nws pictures ( trees down in louisville)

roof damage on this one in prospect ky

this house took a beating in indiana

more photos are up @ www.nws.noaa.gov/lmk  thanks to the people who donated these photos to the nws.

2. gulf coast

panic at this gas station in tenn (CNN)

galveston nearly leveled (CNN)

 people wait for supplies in houston (CNN)

boats in galveston after ike (CNN)

– there were 13 deaths 1 local due to ike and many people who took big losses from ike thoughts/prayers i’m sure would be appricated.

for the rest of this week we’re high and dry with 70’s for highs and 50’s for lows with no rain.