Archive for July, 2011

Site down till November

July 9, 2011

Viewers of this site,

Thank you all for contributing to this site over the past few years.As many of you know I’m moving to New Jersey for 4 months this week. My time I have had to devote this site has been getting less over the past several months due to my thesis, graduate studies, campus activities and the stormtoppers. The new position I will have at the local nws there will demand my full attention over the coming months while I’m away with any free time devoted primarily to finishing of my thesis. This puts me in a position to where I will not be able to continue to provide weather updates on a regular basis for this site. I have accepted a job that I feel is an excellent opportunity to start my career with the National Weather Service and hope for your understanding regarding this choice not to update this website till my return in November. I wish you all the best in finding weather information and that I have shown you all a few things on what to look for so you can come to a few conclusions fo your own. Make sure to check Kentucky weather center and pierce’s site during the absence of this source for daily weather info. I have enjoyed providing the service of weather forecasts over the past few years and look forward to returning to that role in November.

Mitchell Gaines

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winter preview

July 9, 2011

since this is the last post for a while here is a look at some early thoughts on the winter of 2011-12.

– neutral enso state.

– cold PDO ( acts to enhance la-ninas and trend the overall wintertime patterns toward la-nina)

– large scale drought over the south and southeast

Overall I could see the enso go either way. typically enso neutral conditions bring above normal snowfall to the region so this is a plus for snow fans out there. Second the CFS is leading the charge on the return of la-nina, we’ll see on this one. However at this time given the effect of the PDO as well I’m inclined to think the wintertime pattern may reflect at least a week la-nina state with the added influence of the southern drought.

I expect at this time a jet stream with a large western trough cutting into the central plains with a ridge in the southeast. mean storm track from texas into the ohio valley. snowier than normal from the central plains into the great lakes with average snowfall and temperatures in our region. colder than normal temperatures in the west and northern plains with warmer than normal temperatures for the southeast.

first idea

normal snow and temps. of course this with very little of the data in. I’ll update this in November when regular posting to this site is scheduled to resume.

heat advisories likely monday and tuesday

July 9, 2011

The core of the heat will move into our region for a few days particularly for Monday and Tuesday. With deep moisture continuing to advect into the region and subsidence storms are not expected and dewpoints will be in the mid 70s. modeled values for dewpoints are near 80 however these were to high with the last threat of excessive heat. High temperatures should average in the mid 90’s. This will result in heat index values rising above 105 in the afternoons. allow extra caution if outdoors.

wet friday on tap

July 7, 2011

I’m expecting a disturbance to track across the northern part of the state overnight and Friday. This disturbance will be the trigger for a widespread coverage of showers and storms which can produce heavy rains perhaps on the order of over an inch in spots.  As for any severe threat parameters are very marginal in view and I expect cloud cover to limit things further, still an isolated severe storm can’t be ruled out.  overall the pattern will continue to be hot with highs near 90 and lows in the 60’s to low 70’s outside of storms. Also with reagrds to the model runs today I saw some convective feedback issues meaning the excessive totals will not be realized.

radar

Central Great Lakes sector loop

please check back this weekend for news about the future of this site.

4th of july: scattered storms

July 2, 2011

Like many 4th’s in our region this one features a threat for thunderstorms to provide the fireworks instead of your local show.

1. A week front moving in from the north will be the trigger. Overall this front may be close enough to northern regions for an isolated storm Sunday. This front moves through the region on Monday. Highs will still be near 90/ low 90’s with lows in the 60’s to low 70’s.

2. The GFS has the most optimistic drier 4th with only the week front contributing to rain chances. However I’m thinking more in line with NAM/ECMWF that a very week low pressure may form along the front to enhance storm chances a bit say around 50% coverage. timing of the storms looks to be in the afternoon and evening. instability will be in place with steep lapse rates for some of the storms to have marginally strong gusty winds of 40 mph and pea size hail for a few locations.

My thinking right now is for early afternoon storms to fire along I-64 then move southeast into the evening along the front. This leaves the chance to see storms and still clear out in time for evening activities on the 4th. More updates to come if there are changes.