Forecast for the week

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1. First to recap of discussion points over the weekend, if you closely you see two different categories for snow accumulation from Thu-Fri. One is for measurements taken right after snow fell of 1/2-1 inch the other is the following morning after the warm ground had actually caused snow melt at night and with measurements after the sun came up well even less was measured and thus the T to .5 inch measurements expect fro areas east of lex that actually got this much. Second our winter storm threat is still alive for the 7th. the CMC and its emsembles are still going with this along with a fair number of the gfs ensembles. The operational gfs doesn;t know what’s going on and the ECMWF still has the storm but a weird idea to make it a cut-off but on it’s 12z run still brings a streak of light snow into the region.  Another solution is for a track far enough south so the Tennessee valley gets a snowstorm around the 7th. So I will focus on this week and let the models sort out the mess. i still suspect a week low crosses the Ohio valley this weekend then deepens some causing the winter storm threat  system to move across the south with colder air to work with behind the first system.

2. Today we’ll see warm southerly flow and windy conditions with increasing clouds ahead of the next front. By tonight a band of rain and thunder should move from west t east through the day Tuesday. 1-2 inches of rain should fall regionwide. Highs Monday should reach the 50’s and stay there into Tuesday before falling temperatures from west to east during the day. Once again we have the issue of colder air catching up to the front as we have a secondary low along the front which should keep precipitation in longer for eastern Kentucky into Wednesday morning. With temperatures falling to near 30 a changeover to a period of snow with accumulations up to an inch is likely for areas such as Ashland and Pikeville. Most areas west of a Maysville to Jackson line will just see flurries Tuesday night.  

3. Wednesday much colder air will filter in behind the front with nw winds and overcast skies highs will stay in the 30’s regionwide with scattered snow showers and flurries some more light accums are possible in the far east.

4. Thursday and Friday should see a mix of clouds one needs to squint at the models to see a shortwave moving through this may lead to some flurries Thursday night and early Friday. Highs should be in the 40’s with lows in the 20’s.

5. After this the model uncertainty increases 10 fold. Remember above my critical analysis of the operational gfs well here is the 00z run actually getting in line with my thoughts. sill not trapping in the first low enough of Maine so the solution may be colder than shown.

Again that’s for dec 7. My confidence is increasing for a winter storm somewhere for the Ohio and Tenn valleys for early next week. Stay tuned.

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4 Responses to “Forecast for the week”

  1. marsha Says:

    that sure want be in our neck of the woods it never does that why i have stop getting my hopes up sounds like the upcoming winter don’t look to good ether………………..

  2. mitch Says:

    the GFS is up to it’s surpressive nonsense again. It does have the storm just squishes like a pancakae in the southern plains because the northern branch is to strong on the model. A typical gfs bias.

  3. mitch Says:

    almost forgot this morning to mention the 00z ecmwf brings many smiles and snow shovels out for southern ky for the 7th-8th.

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