Archive for February, 2011

Henry County EF-3

February 28, 2011

There were two tornadoes  one that which crossed the river into western Jefferson county and the other a EF-3 in Henry county overnight. As I indicated earlier in an ideal situation I would have covered the entire squall line event. However with other obligations I was not able to stay up through the entire event only providing a few comments. Unlike the broadcast media and NWS which have several forecasters I’m only one person with many obligations in addition to this site. These late night tornado touchdowns only prove that NOAA radios are a powerful tool to get the weather warnings out to the public.

recap of henry county tornado  it was an EF-3 which touched down over Southern henry county. Here are some NWS figures from the LMK office to recap the event.

 




 

snow this weekend?

February 28, 2011

I did mention the GFS showing a rain to snow system this weekend. Now the ECMWF is on board and the most bullish which would allow rain to change over to several inches of wet snow sunday. I also see the CMC has jumped on board This system bears close watching! in fact this storm is a close cousin to the march 2008 storm as seen on the modeling.

On to a recap of the squall line numerous warnings for issued for the line with the widespread wind gusts it had. heavy rain has also led to high water rises today across most of the region.  Overall a good forecast, I’m little frustrated based on timing of these systems and my duties with STN that coverage of the severe weather could have been more in-depth.

11:00 pm update: squall line now forming

February 28, 2011

radar

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

actually 2 squall line merging into one. The RUC showed this well. I still no have changes on the impact 40-80 mph wind gusts, some hail and isolated tornadoes. the timing of the squall line appears to be later to the timing of the low level jet and breaking of the cap.

BWG- 5am cst

Lex- 7 am est

JKL- 9 am est

Pike- 11 am est

Iolated storms may form ahead of the line which may also be severe, turn on those NOAA radios for watches and warnings.

5:00 pm update: CIN keeping us from seeing severe storms for now

February 27, 2011

A large region of convective inhibition known as CIN is present over the region which has kept storms from becoming severe. Eventhough we had one supercell near Nashville it reached this zone then died. I suspect this to be the case through the evening eventhough a tornado watch is in effect for the Bowling Green region. still a major squall line is likely overnight.

1:00 pm update: HRRR model showing supercells in BWG region this afternoon and evening

February 27, 2011

the HRRR model is developing supercells in the Memphis region and tracking them northeast into the Bowling green region this afternoon. Not sold on this yet, stay tuned.