Archive for May, 2012

strong storms likely this afternoon

May 31, 2012

Well morning storms did not occur across the region. However some high cloud cover from showers to our west may still be a limiting factor in the amount of instability advected northward throughout the day. I still expect enough shear along the warm front for a few storms which may turn tornadic focused on northern KY. Also, instability should  be sufficient for several clusters of storms to move across our region this afternoon and evening with damaging winds and some hail with the best chances in the south.

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Looking ahead

May 29, 2012

1.  Showers and storms occurred for many today. However this front washes out over the region still leaving it hot and humid for Wednesday. Not enough lift for any storms. Also I think eastern portions of the state will see some sinking air associated with tropical depression Beryl promoting a lack of convection. Highs will be in the 80’s after lows in the 60’s. Any rain or wind from Beryl will be well east of the region.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

2. Thursday a low pressure system and several clusters of storms will track northeast from the southern plains into our region. A cold front will develop behind this low with the washed out front becoming a warm front. The warm front will push through the region increasing the amount of instability advection and the amount of the shear ahead of the low. However morning thunderstorms to our west should keep clouds in place and limit the instability. The warm front should also push north putting northern Kentucky in a region that has sufficient shear for tornadoes. In the afternoon enough instability may materialize for a few storms to have severe hail and damaging winds regardless. If morning convection is less than anticipated then a squall line with a widespread wind threat and some hail could occur. expect a day that features several rounds of showers and storms. Winds will increase from the south then northwest by Friday morning. Conditions will be slow to clear out Friday as well. Highs could struggle to 80 Thursday with lows Friday morning in the 50’s.  I will update Wednesday on this as the set-up is complex.

3. Clouds should linger Friday I’m going to keep a slight shower chance as well with highs in the mid to upper 60’s.

4. Saturday Should be mostly sunny with lows near 50 and highs in the 70’s. A great day to be outdoors!

5. Fair Sunday and we’re back in the 80’s. Long term I expect the idea summer battleground to really take shape with the core of the heat over the southern plains and a mean trough being reinforced periodically in the east. Our region should an increase in thunderstorms for the first part of June as a result with temps near normal.

6. Also next winter still looking good for snow and cold. Models coming onto my idea of a central base week to moderate el-nino. Already seeing cold forecasted for the winter over the east on the CFS. 1976-77,2002-03,2009-10 looking good as analogs.  Last year I saw the tides turn toward warm and kept riding the warm card. Reverse this year.

quick highlights

May 28, 2012

-Two fronts this week on Tuesday and then the next comes Thursday night with storms

-Gradual cooling trend as well

-Thursday night severe threat?

– Starting to work on top 10 list

– Full update Tuesday!

Hot holiday weekend

May 23, 2012

1. Still can’t rule out a storm Wednesday for the east.

2. gradually getting warmer mid 80’s for highs by Thursday, upper 80’s Friday, mid 90’s Saturday, Sunday and Monday. EC even has western KY near 100. No rain chances as well through Monday. The good news is modeled dewpoints have fallen a bit to around 65. This would put heat indices near 100 compared to the 105-110 shown on the models a few days ago.

3. I have accepted a job at the National weather Service in Mt.Holly,NJ. I will announce a final date for regular posts in the next few weeks. However this site will still feature all of the weather information you will need in the links eventhough I will be moving away.

Stormy start to week, heat wave as advertised to end month

May 20, 2012

We have our first tropical system of the year.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Back to KY.

1. Monday a front and upper level low move into the region with an increase of clouds, showers and storms. I expect highs only in the 70’s. No severe weather expected.

2. This front lingers into Tuesday so more of the same. Lows near 60 as well.

3. By Wednesday the upper low has moved little. Although a lot of moisture should translate east of our region. I’m thinking isolated storms with highs back in the 80’s.

4. A strong upper level ridge will replace the trough bringing with it strong southwest flow and  sinking air. This means several sunny very hot and humid days to end May from Thursday to memorial day. The ECMWF is aggressive keeping the ridge in place while the GFS tries to bring a few fronts north of our region. I could see modeling verifying with highs in the mid 90’s and dewpoints from 70-75 for a day or two. That would be heat advisory criteria on a big outdoor weekend. Stay tuned, I’ll update again Tuesday on this.