Archive for April, 2011

photos from outbreak

April 29, 2011

http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2011/04/weather/gallery.hires.storm/index.html?hpt=T1

scroll below for this weekend’s forecast. Already becoming concerned about another stalled front Sunday-Tuesday with more flooding rains. By the way the ECMWF suggests this may end as something else in the higher elevations Wednesday morning as colder rushes in behind the system.

forecast for weekend

April 27, 2011

Highlights – scattered showers and storms still in the forecast for Thursday – much welcomed dry period Friday and Saturday – another frontal system Sunday

Forecast: The frontal boundary which produced numerous rounds of severe weather and flooding over a large portion of the south, Midwest and east coast is now moving away. However the upper low behind this system will still produce some afternoon showers and rumbles of thunder with a threat for pea size hail in the afternoon. Afternoon heating will lead to an increasing temperature gradient with height which will promote the redevelopment of these clouds and scattered showers in the afternoon. After sunset these will quickly end. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60’s Thursday. For Friday and Saturday conditions will clear for a few days with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s. Unforntauntrly by Sunday another strong frontal boundary which could also be another slow mover will move into the region. Rounds of heavy rainfall are very well possible from Sunday to beyond the forecast period. parameters suggest the potential for another squall line event as well Sunday night or Monday. Details will be refined as needed on the hvy rain and severe threat Sunday night. MWG

severe weather outbreak possibile wednesday

April 26, 2011

– currently numerous thunderstorms are in progress tonight with all the ingredients in place for severe weather and tornadoes. These storms will move through overnight ,

– The question is do we have enough time after these storms move through to destabilize the atmosphere again?

If so

– we have strong 500 mb PVA, a decent  jet streak and a continued strong advection of moisture into the region along the boundary providing lift. Along this boundary considerable shear will be present as well. All of the incidents are in play for a severe weather outbreak regionwide should the atmosphere become unstable.

A look at the latest NAM and HRRR runs out do show convection to our southeast first thing in the morning. I’ll be tracking things to see if things become unstable. I had planned on a more detailed update but given the opening round will moving in soon this update was short.

turn around don’t drown

April 24, 2011

numerous flood warnings are in effect for areas north and west of Lexington due to the considerable amount of rain in recent days. Here is my forecast issued earlier today. Temperatures will generally be in the 70’s and 80’s for highs with lows in the 60’s.

Highlights:
– frontal boundary to remain in region throughout forecast period

– periods of thunderstorms each day with severe weather threats

– risk for flash flooding by Wednesday night

Discussion:
A frontal boundary which has been nearly stationary along the Ohio
river will shift slightly northward Sunday night and Monday. Another
round of showers and storms will be likely from Sunday afternoon into
the overnight hours as this boundary shifts north, locally heavy rain
and isolated severe storms are possible. During the day Monday
isolated storms are still expected along the boundary instability
present may allow a few of these to reach severe limits with a threat
for gusty winds and hail. A low pressure system will enhance the
coverage of showers and storms late Monday night with another threat
for heavy rain( up to 1.5 inches from Sunday afternoon-Monday
night)and severe weather in the form of gusty winds. Once again during
the day Tuesday coverage of storms becomes more scattered with a
continued isolated severe threat. A stronger low pressure system will
track over the region along the boundary late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. These features will enhance the heavy rain threat and
lead to a likely widespread additional 2 to locally 4 inches of rain
which may result in flash flooding. In addition severe storms are
possible on the leading edge of this system in the form of gusty winds
and isolated tornadoes. With a almost constant threat for severe
weather and likely hydrological hazards throughout the forecast period
the STN will remain on alert for the foreseeable future. Further
statements for severe watches and warnings, activations and flood
warnings may be needed.
MWG

– southeast of lexington amounts will be much lighter untill roughly Wednesday. Less of a flood threat for JKL, Somerset and Pikeville.

For the rest of us

CVG,BWG, LOU, LEX

– addtional heavy rains will lead to continued probbanilty of flooding

 This is the confrence call out of the paducah office thanks to Beau Dodson for providing the link which discusses the hazardus of this upcoming event.  My concern level is high as flooding which is already in progress will only get worse in the coming days. I have other obligations, meetings, classwork which also demand my attention but i will do the best i can to relay warnings and provide insights in the commets section over the next few days.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/pah/briefs/latest.mp3

 
 

the never ending train of severe weather and heavy rain

April 23, 2011

– The frontal boundary will be parked over the Ohio river throughout the weekend. At the same time waves of energy will move along the boundary serving as a trigger for periods of showers and storms. Ample mositure in place with a west to east training of storms will lead to a high water threat over the north thus a flash flood watch remains in effect. The majority of the unsettled weather will be in the north. Model guidence including the SREF mean indicates a potential for 1-3 inches across the central and northern portions of the state from Today through Sunday.

– Alos with our region in the warm sector instabilty will be sufficent to delevop storng thunderstorms that may be able to reach severe limits from time to time. However shear is less than yesturday which lowers the threat for rotating storms. tmeperatures will have a wide range the next few days with lows in the 60’s and highs in the 70’s north to 80’s south.

– currently as opf noon saturday storms are ongoing across north central Kentucky. I expect delevopment over western portions and northenr portions of the site region this afternoon these storms may produce large hail and gusty winds with an lesser threat for rotation. Overnight the LLJ and a nother disturbance should spark widespread storms over northern portions with lesser coverage south ioslated severe threat as well. redelevopment sunday afternoon may lead to more scattered severe storms within clusters of showers and storms.

– Monday the boundary shifts northwest of the region leading to a mostly cloudy windy and warm day with highs hitting 80.

– Tuesday and Wednesday two more low pressure systems travel along the boundary renewing the threat for widespread rain and storms which may again be severe. The low track this time will determine if ample instabilty enters the region. highs will be in the 70’s wth lows in the 60’s.

– my main concern throughout the next five days is the hvy rain threat. I could easily see northern sections of the state getting 3-6 inches of rain if not more with southern regions still getting several inches of rain. the ECMWF has the hvy rain axis of 5-8 inches  just west of us while the GFS has this over northern and western portions of the region.

GFS Monday-wednesday night rainfall

that does not count for the 1-3 inches of rain by Monday morning folks. This would imply a widespread river flooding event for the region by mid week.

– I’ll update as i can with watches, warnings and flood threat updates over the weekend.

sorry for the delay this post did not post properly till the webiste untill saturday afternoon it was published at noon saturday.

update

we have a tornado watch for western portions of the region as decent shear coupled with some instabilty has once again led to an enviorment favorable for severe thunderstorms. also one warning is in effect for

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
327 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

KYC023-037-191-OHC015-025-231945-
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110423T1945Z/
PENDLETON KY-BRACKEN KY-CAMPBELL KY-BROWN OH-CLERMONT OH-
327 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
CLERMONT…WESTERN BROWN…CAMPBELL…EXTREME NORTHERN BRACKEN AND
NORTHEASTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES…

AT 327 PM EDT…RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MOUNT AUBURN…MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
AUGUSTA AND FELICITY.