Warming up again this week… Next Weekend a cutter…. February overall continues the warm talk

Let’s break down Monday through Wednesday first

1. We saw a shot of normal air this weekend. As I keep saying overall most days above normal a shot of normal air for a few days at a time then warm again I don’t see any change in this through Feb.

2. Lows tonight should range from the mid 20’s to low 30’s valley locations have a shot at some of the colder temps. I expect some mixing so most of us on the higher end of that but if winds do go calm 20’s overnight for most as dewpoints are pretty low.

3. Once again Monday strong WAA comes into the region along with zonal flow from the pacific as well. In the image below you can see the rising heights and the overall zonal pattern.

That equates to another warm period. In fact with pelnty of sun highs should be well into the 50’s perhaps a few locations close to 60. Southwesterly winds will also be on the increase from 10-25 mph with higher gusts.

2. Tuesday my thinking is for a slow increase in clouds after lows in 30’s highs should crack 60 in most spots maybe even mid 60’s south. Once again another breezy day with similar winds as Monday.  Tuesday night brings a good chance for scattered showers ahead of the next front with quite a few of us staying near 50 for lows Tuesday night.

3. More scattered showers Wednesday with highs in the 50’s, low 60’s for southern KY. Winds will likely decrease some as well.

 

Next weekend cutter

– Weeker low Thursday with continued shower chance

after that is at least a little interesting.

– Strong energy should cut into the southern plains by weeks end

– The mid week system may allow for more seasonabile air to come into the region

– A pretty strong low pressure should form in the southern plains Friday and move east/northeast, my thinking is the almost cut-off nature of this low being portrayed on the models along with an attempt to rise heights again ahead of it allows it to cut west of the mtns.

– As many of you know this is a rain to flurries set-up but still several days away. low level cold will not be a concern for ice. This outcome is one that favors regions from OK/AR/MO/IL/IN/OH into the interior northeast. the 500 mb pattern also argues this low while tracking overhead forms a  secondary low offshore perhaps making things interesting further northeast as well.

– I do see the +PNA, -AO with a neutral NAO. I don’t think the teleconnections are outstanding but won’t be a prohibiting factor either.

Storm track for 2/3-/5

Of course it’s 7 days out do you really want to be in the white region indicating a snow chance? lol.

Now onto Feb as a whole. I like the look a blend of my two last winter analogs gives 56-57 and 1971-72 for the month of Feb.

 

– I do see a window where the northeast can see some cooler weather during the first of the month

– later in the month the euro weeklies try to bring some chill into the northern plains and Rockies.

– southern plains warmest overall

– MJO in phases 6 and 7 through the first half of the month perhaps by month’s end we get into 8,1,2 with a more favorable teleconnection pattern now we may still have a shot in Mar at some chill and snow.

– Not seeing any strat warming episodes coming up.

– My Jan forecast as slightly to cool in thinking the strat warming would have more an influence it did but corresponded with a – PNA which dumped the resulting cold into the west.

Feb temp forecast

 

 

12z CMC and next weekend

Just wanted to point out that even with my cotninued posts of warmth and no snow i do this on the CMC maybe a light is opening in this dark and bleak tunnell known as the winter of 2011-12. I’ll break this down more on Sunday on if the forecast goes in the direction of the GFS/CMC or in the direction of the ECMWF.

Short term: Weekend forecast

I’m back from AMS. A great learning experience and I’d never thought I would see so many meteorologists in one building before.  My thinking on Sunday’s severe is the instability did not have enough time to advect into the region to make it a more significant event. overall after that the forecast last week went wrong and that’s why forecast thought should be updated every few days at least.

1. Friday with the departing system we’ll have slowly clearing skies after starting out in the mid 30’s highs should range from the low to upper 40’s, maybe 50 south. No fog as winds will be from 5-10 mph.

2. Saturday a week front will pass through the region I suspect WAA ahead of the front keeps temps up in the low to upper 30’s Saturday morning. A week front may bring a very small chance of light rain or flurries with mostly cloudy skies  as well. Highs will be from 40-45. Windier conditions are expected.

3. Sunday a shortwave tracks north of the Ohio river. This increases clouds once again perhaps bringing a rain or snow shower for northern and eastern KY Lows will range from the mid 20’s north to 30 south with highs in the 40’s.

4. read below for a bleak long range.

Long term: least snowiest calendar winter ( Jul-Jun) becoming more likely at Lexington

If we make to June without an addtional inch of snow this year at lexington it will be the least snowiest winter/spring/fall season on record. The new euro weeklies show this to be very likely through the last week of feburary. I look at it and it says the same thing as last week.

– 4 or 5 mild days a few in the 60’s then a few days of normal before the next warm-up. rain and severe storms should be common with tracks well to our north

– doesn’t look like much stratospheric warming now either which helped some in Jan.

– Overall teleconnection pattern doesn’t show any change to winter

– MJO looks very unfavorable the next 2 weeks.

Overall this makes the chances of having a seasonal total of snow by the end of June under 2.1 inches at bluegrass airport more likely,we’re at 1.1 inches now.

Covington area to see ice storm

Soundings have trended higher with QPF and slightly colder as well. I expect the 32 degree line to have a hard time pushing through far northern Kentucky. Ice amounts will gradually decrease the further south one heads with temperatures staying above 32 along I-64. Ice will accumulate to various surfaces including trees and power lines. Looking at the soundings and current dewpoints I’m not sold the precipitation may fall only as freezing rain or rain. In fact sleet may fall for several hours as well across the Covington region. For now expect ice and sleet accumulation under 1/4 inch. If all ice then 1/4 of accumulation could occur. Winter storm warnings and advisories have been issued for northern KY.