Archive for August, 2010

Earl update and the next few days in a nutshell

August 30, 2010

1. My thoughts on earl going west of the nhc track from yesterday have support from most of the models, including the operational gfs which has hurricane conditions Friday in southeast new england  from Earl. The Conn, RI, MA and NC coastlines are of concern as of now.

tomorrow the bwg area has  a shot at some scattered showers and storms from the disturbance moving around the edge of the ridge. Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry regionwide thanks to the ridge. Highs should range from the mid 80’s to low 90’s with lows in the upper 60’s.

Advertisements

Moderate Drought Western Kentucky

August 28, 2010

This week portions of Western Kentucky are moving into moderate drought. The rainfall events we have had sinceMay have been have been less frequent than normal but the number of extremely heavy events is above normal in the Bowling Green region but not just to our west. Areas of the bluegrass region also have to be monitored for abnormally dry conditions as Lexington has had only .58 inches of rain for the month. Rainfall Sunday and Monday though scattered may help a bit, otherwise the deficit will increase by .15 each day. Without the May flood event the entire region would likely be in a moderate to severe drought today.

Tropical updates and thoughts on the current storms

August 28, 2010

1. We have an area of low pressure near the Louisiana coast which will move northward over the next few days. With this some deeper tropical moisture will move around the edge of the ridge establishing it’s self in the upper lakes. As a result this tropical moisture appears deeper than earlier thought leading to addition of shower and storm chances for Sunday afternoon through Monday. Coverage should be around 50% in the Bowling Green region while only @ 30% in the Lexington and Louisville regions and less further to the east and north, closer to the influence of the ridge which allows air to sink and be more stable.

2. Hurricane Danielle is turning way out to sea getting caught in a atlantic trough, let’s say bye now.  NHC maps.

3. The next storm is Earl. An upper level ridge is forming between Danielle and Earl which will promote a westward movement for the next few days before a turn to the northwest toward the southeast United States. Most of the modeling is now picking up on a trough toward the next of next week coming into the eastern US to turn Earl back out to sea. However I’m a bit skeptical of this solution because of known gfs biases to recurve hurricanes out to sea to quick and be to fast with approaching weather systems, the approaching trough. It should be noted however the ECMWF shows a very similar solution as well. Right now my personal thoughts are the ridge over the eastern United States doesn’t break  down as much as current models indicate fitting in with recent southern and western trends with the track of Earl. Thus I have my forecast track which is on the southern and western edge of NHC’s track now. However the US east coast is still spared a hit from Earl.

the black line is my track.

4. Fiona should develop soon ( red hatched area on NHC site) and track further southwest than Earl and the next wave already coming off the western african coast will likely be Gaston as the cape verde season is underway.

dry streak over the bluegrass will continue

August 26, 2010

For our southern counties near bwg a heavy thunderstorms have kept rainfall close to normal, however it looks very likely Lexington will only see a total of .58 inches of rain for the month. The Louisville area has a deficit for the month but not anywhere close to the extent of Lexington. However you folks in the Jackson are think is nonsense as you have a surplus for the month. We will all dry out this week as a very strong ridge builds over the great lakes region positioning itself just to our northeast.

A: This means southerly flow will be the rule by the weekend but with the strong high pressure leading to sinking air not favorable for afternoon cloud  and convection formation just a slight increase in humidity.

B: This chilly shot of air will feel good tonight (Thu) I don’t see any reason we don’t get into the 50’s regionwide tonight as dewpoints are already that low and 850 temps aren’t indicating lows over 60. Friday should be another sunny day with highs from 79-85.

C: For Saturday and Sunday highs will range from 83-89 across the state with more sun and very few clouds. No fronts which could bring chances of rain are in sight on any of the modeling through early next week. Highs Monday and Tuesday should top 90 again regionwide.

D: I’ll update this weekend on the tropics and some long-range thoughts. Right now Danielle is turning out to sea and Earl is a little more concern to the east coast.

E: Hopefully the weather here will get active soon or else it may turn out like this movie airplane.  

google search

westward moving clouds yesturday

August 25, 2010

Hopefully you were watching the sat image loops as extensive westward moving overcast is what kept the bluegrass and eastern ky in the 70’s for highs. Overall for Today I expect less in the way of clouds from the eastern trough but the passage of a week front will keep it at least partly to mostly cloudy. With less southerly advection and more clouds I’m lowering highs tomorrow once again likely in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s across the region. Thursday should be sunny and pleasant behind the front with highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s with northerly advection.