Archive for May, 2011

wkyt news story on our group

May 24, 2011

http://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/WKU_students_tracked_deadly_Missouri_tornado.html

keep an eye on kyweathercenter and pierce’s site for updates on local severe weather.

off to the plains to find the storms

May 17, 2011

I will feature videos and photos from this trip along with accounts and notes as well when I can during but mainly when i get back.

1. expect a slow warming trend each day as we return to a more normal pattern highs will still be in the 50’s Tuesday may 17th the 60’s that Wednesday then into the 70’s and 80’s each day into June. Showers may linger till the 19th Thursday.

2. this much warmer pattern from the 20-30th brings with it more episodes of severe weather check pierce Larkin’s site or the kentuckyweathercenter for more on local weather.

3.  Overall still think the theme of this late spring will carry into the summer. Warm-ups are overhyped due to storms and above normal soil moisture then cool fronts lead to equal periods of below normal temperatures.

your local nws offices on facebook

May 12, 2011

social media now has expanded to your local nws office. If you are a facebook user search for the Louisville and Jackson offices. They now will send weather information out through facebook also giving you the chance to post vital weather information to their page if you like the page.

Now onto the weather another important weekend weatherwise last weekend we had mothers and derby days. This weekend graduations and other activities fill up the spotlight.

1. Once again on Friday we’ll have moderate instability in place with ample moisture.  Also ahead of the front there may some boundaries already in place similar to Thursday which produced clusters of storms. I expect this to be case on Friday but regionwide. Once again small hail and marginal severe wind gusts are possible in a few locations. This will keep temperatures down in the 70’s for highs with lows in the 60’s.

2. Saturday Low pressure and the frontal system move slowly the region as the system begins to occlude and become cut-off from the flow. Highs may spike to near 70 ahead of the front but fall through the afternoon. rain showers and thunder will be likely. southerly winds will pick up and switch to northwest in the afternoon.

3. this cut-off low moves over the apps throughout the weekend with our region in cool nw flow with cloudy skies and a chance of passing light rain showers. Lows should hold around 50 for Saturday and Sunday nights with highs only in the 50’s to low 60’s. In addition a large temperature difference with height is expected Sunday and Monday which promotes an environment that may produce small hail and sleet  with any rain showers lows Monday night may fall all the way to 40. With cloud cover no frost would occur. Tuesday in typical – NAO fashion a low pressure will track up the east coast if this were 8 months from now a snowstorm could occur for our eastern regions as it stands May some rain showers with continued below normal temperatures in a nw flow are expected.

4. From may 19th to June 2nd I will embark on 2 week field methods course here at WKU to forecast severe storms over the great plains. The goal is for the forecast to pay off and get a chance to see some storms up close. Myself and a few others on the trip may provide updates on the trip occasionally with full coverage on the WKU meteorology blog. Also refer to pierce Larkin’s site as well for weather info around here during that time.

Bet on MCS’s not 90 this week

May 8, 2011

1. A warm front will swing north of our region monday as a result more warm moist air will advect into the region with highs in the 80’s. This also increases instability but with a CAP in place and no boundary it will be a mostly sunny day with highs in the 80’s.

2. By Monday night and Tuesday the front will arc southwest back into northeast Kentucky with low pressure in the northern plains. I expect this frontal boundary to be the focus of several large MCS thunderstorm complexes. Instead of the usual squall lines thunderstorms will organize near the boundary and move from nw to se the organization will not be linear w-e like we’ve seen but more nw-se along the boundary in clusters. These storms will be focused along the boundary through Wednesday with ample instability to develop them. Away from the boundary further southwest a CAP may not break for anything more than clouds for the MCS’s. Flooding will be another concern where thunderstorms move over the same regions. Some storms may be severe with gusty winds as the main threat from Monday night into Wednesday. Overall periods of storms are likely from Lexington to Somerset northeast with scattered coverage from Louisville into south central Kentucky. Highs will range from the mid 70’s with clouds and storms to the upper 80’s in the rain free regions with lows in the 60’s.

Another reason for the lack od the 90 across much of region will be abnormally high soil moisture across the region. I expect this to be constant throughout the summer. more plants etc. are in place to take in the UV from the sun on a daily basis. moisture in the ground is also evaporated to form clouds in spots.

By thursday a cold front moves closer with more storm chances regionwide.

derby forecast

May 5, 2011

1. Overnight we have a week disturbance that may park a few showers. This clears out quickly by Friday with highs in the 60’s.

2. For Derby day a warm frontal boundary will be the spark for the periods of showers and storms to move through throughout derby day, this increases the likelihood of a sloppy track with these periods of showers and storms. overall additional flooding concerns are low. lows will warm into the 50’s with highs in the 70’s.

3. Sunday into the workweek will be sunny with warm southerly flow highs get into the 80’s with lows near 60.