Archive for March, 2009

thunderstorm threat thursday night?

March 31, 2009

1. after a  wednesday with increasing sunshine throughout the day and highs near 60 again, thursday will likely be fair throughout most of the day but the next storm appears to come in a few hours faster which means the threat for more instabilty which can produce thunderstorms late thursday. gusty winds will be a threat with any late afternoon thunderstorms.

spc

by friday the yo yo pattern will continue with  a dry day but yet another storm coming in by sunday. the s-word is in my forecast for early next week but we’ll focus on wed and early thu for now, the nicer days.

speaking of a yo-yo situtation will he stay or will he come to kentucky???

i can now say offically welcome coach Cal to big blue nation!!!

this pic from the memphis commerial dealer

 

he was my first choice of the candiates to get the job and i wish him well!  I’ll be putting some baseball stuff in the posts over the next week as well for opening day let’s not forget my phills are defending world champs now!

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welcome coach cal???

March 30, 2009

1. it’s likely to happen according to news sources and if it does by tommorow a welcome to the bluegrass goes out to coach Cal.

2. i don’t have any changes to make on the next system mainly some showers tuesday night highs still in the 60’s tommorow and 50’s wednesday with clearing behind the front.

3. the next storm will have a more widespread rain with it for thursday night and friday temps will still be in the 60’s for highs and 40’s for lows.

4.  saturday will be a warm dry day as i see it now likely a great day for yard work but in this pattern of a storm every other day we can’t signal the all clear yet. however sunday looks wet and colder, monday may ber very similar to last sunday yuck!

climate fact of the day: an el-nino occurs when surface temps off the coast of peru and in the tropical pacific are over  .5*C above normal for 3 months in a row.

time to warm things up

March 29, 2009

1. your monday will feature will a warm-up with full sunshine a big improvement over today and temps back to 60 for highs.

2. tuesday will already see the next front bearing down in this active march pattern with showers later on in the day possibily holding off till nighttime clouds will increase in the day but waa should still allow us to get well into the 60’s maybe 70 far se.

3.  by wednesday morning showers and a few rubles of thunder will be more numerous with activity ending from west to east during the day another 1/2 inch of needed rain is possibile from this activty. timing is bad for severe weather and i see the gulf storms will limit the northward movement of mositure to produce strong storms.

18z nam above

the mos could bust again for daytime temps wednesday as the flow shifts to nw a midnight high of 60 again with temps perhaps in the 40’s by days end.  make sure to be midful of 850 mb images eventhough the blue 0*C line is east of us with precip surface temps will be to warm for snow.

4. the flow will be very quick to turn around again this low will track similar to the one that went through this weekend and be another storng one putting ky in the zone for potential severe weather if the track shifts north should track shift se enough cold air could make things intresting winter wise. as of now it looks to me like a windespread rain very late thu into most of fri with highs in the 50’s.

climate fact of the day:  local tv weatherman rarely report on climate change

severe update: 7:00 pm & 7:30 pm

March 28, 2009

our squall line has formed

current warnings

wkyt, accuweather

this squall line will roll northeast tonight with gusty winds, hail and tornadoes the odds from the spc have increased somewhat

county map so you match up warnings with county names

kentucky-county-map

be prepared to go to your basement if a tornado warning is issued for your county.

 

UPDATE 7:30 PM A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF 1-75.

ww0093_radar

PROBABILTES WITH WATCH

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0093_prob.html

STAY TUNED FOR ANY WARNINGS

severe update: 2:00 pm

March 28, 2009

unlike the past several severe events we will be live this time with frequent updates.

morning showers have pushed through and the  sun is starting to peak out leading to instabilty and  severe storm delevopment to our sw this afternoon in the warm sector. the delevopment will start out as supercells with hail, wind and tornadoes but form a squall line later today as the action moves into our area.

latest from the spc

sill a slight risk ahead of the main cold front for most of us  morning activity in the se  us caused a slight risk there.

tornado chances within 25 miles of you

hail above wind below

the spc has been playing this one on the conserative side however i think the severe threat will be more widespread as instabiltywill occur this afternoon.

 

they have issued a MD as well for west ky and tenn where storms will delevop by 4 pm.

SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 20-21Z ALONG A COLD FRONT
   PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. VERY
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AMIDST MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
   RESULT IN SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 19-20Z.
  
   17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 993 MB LOW NEAR SGF WITH AN ARCING
   COLD FRONT FROM CGI TO TUP. BREAKS IN LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS AND
   PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
   WARM TO AROUND 70 F ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY…WHILE DEW
   POINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 60 F GIVEN DOWNWARD MIXING/ADVECTION.
   WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION…MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   MLCAPES OF 600 TO 1200 J/KG WILL BE COMMON.
  
   AS THE CYCLONE OVER THE OZARKS PIVOTS NEWD…LARGE-SCALE FORCED
   ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS AN INTENSE /90 KTS AT 500 MB/ S-SWLY
   MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR
   BY 21Z…WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z 4-KM WRF-NSSL AND 12Z GFS. WITH
   BACKED S/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW…DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG
   /AOA 60 KTS/ AND WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FAVORABLE
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. WHILE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LAPSE RATES /AS
   SAMPLED UPSTREAM BY 12Z LZK RAOB/ AND THE VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL
   PROMOTE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

mcd0318