Archive for June, 2009

nice weather continues

June 29, 2009

a good headline there again i’m sticking with the same theme in yesterday’s update as slight rain chances move in tomorrow and a little better Wednesday under a nw flow and highs in the 70’s as pieces of upper level energy move around it to create the shower chance.

US map for the midweek

us map13

by Thursday the trough lifts out and a battle gets going once again this summer with thunderstorms along the ring of fire by Sunday. as of now i’m going bolder than most forecast for a dry 4th saying the heat ridge will be a little slower building east keeping the ring of fire away.

cool week ahead

June 28, 2009

1. the theme for the week nw flow, a low over the lakes and upper level disturbances circling around the low producing periods of clouds and light showers with small hail due to cold air aloft.

Mon and Tues the low will stay further north having less of an impact and more sun along with 80 or so for highs. on Wednesday one of those disturbances around the low should make rain chances higher ( 60% instead of 30%)and lower highs into the low to mid 70’s.

NAM wed

with the low being a little more powerful on recent model runs and the tropical low not living up to what it looked like 36 hrs ago on satellite it gets sheared east now.

once again the low will lift away on thursday making it similar to mon/tues.

now on to the bad news

tomorrow we’ll look ahead to the holiday weekend,. there will be no post Tuesday as i will be in bowling green and on the road all day getting ready for the move. friday  jul 3 will be the last post untill sunday jul 12 more than likely as i will be chaperoning a trip to Chicago. hopefully i will still be able to provide quick twitter updates, my Internet access will be limited.

week forecast recap

mon/tue/thu lows low 60’s highs near 80. mix of clouds and sun 30% ch shower

wed showers likely 60%  lo 57* hi 73*

calander

mon- normal post

tue- no post

wed/thu/fri- regular updates

sat jul 4- no updates 4th of july & chicago trip

sun jul 5-jul 12 no updates likely due to chicago trip

long range

June 26, 2009

the only thingto add for Sunday is the storm action will be like today’s and a slight risk is in effect. the weekend is on the last post.

for next week we have an upper level low under a big east coast trough which will provide a cool nw flow with clouds and a few light showers rotating around the low that can produce small hail for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday due to cold air aloft and steep lapse rates highs may not reach 80.

the tropics are getting  more active as the MJO is finally getting more favorable, remember i did forecast below avg storms but it’s time for one.

sat image of tropical wave/ feature

where will it go next week

the green area is where i think rain may be enhanced, a lot of variables in this equation, however it’s close to the 00z cmc. i don’t think is anything more than a tropical storm at best.

us map12

scattered storms again

June 26, 2009

1. like yesturday we’re seeing scattered afternoon storms which are slowing moving and strong ahead of a frontal boundry. these storms will put down a ton of rain. yesturday areas just east of 1-75 saw 3-10 inches of rain according to radar leading to high water issues.  today areas such as frankfort and campbelsville are seeing these slow moving storms with another 1-3 inches in these spots in a short time. again these scattered storms are leading to flash flood warnings!  I expect these storms move slowly around the region through sunset temps will hold in the 80’s outside of storms. here in versailles the cell that just passed through is intensfying with 50 mph gusts as it moves south. Just called it in to NWS!

last nights rains accoring to nws spotter network

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=29162&source=0

all of these severe weather events have led to excessive rains in east ky (nws)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=29104&source=0

 

2. saturday again will see a piece of the heat ridge move east thanks to sw flow allowing highs to reach 90 and with dewpoints in the 60’s, 100 heat index values are possibile. no rain is expected

3.  another front pushes the heat ridge away and brings a likelyhood for storms knocking highs back into the 80’s. the flow will turn around to the nw.

4. long range update later tonight!

thinking ahead

June 26, 2009

I’ll recap the past several severe weather events including yesterday’s and any early morning activity later today.  i was in the new chat at ky weathercenter for today’s severe event a great place to discuss the weather, thus at times it was hard to be on two sites at once, i’ll continue to play around with things a bit to see what works best. the same can be said for this site and twitter as well, twitter will be used mainly on quiet days.

I’m thinking ahead a bit to a big holiday weekend coming up and looking into the western gulf at 84 hr on the nam which is Monday

 the 00z gfs moves this wave north into the central  and northern gulf by the middle to end of  next week. let’s say my attention level for the tropics has increased today. There is chance this gets sweep-ed north into the next front in which case impacts could be felt in the Ohio valley.