Archive for August, 2009

weekly forecast

August 31, 2009

for many of us this is a week where we’ll be counting down the days until the holiday weekend or the college football openers with the Cats and Hilltoppers in action. I’ll have weather forecasts for whichever suites you as the week moves on.

1. today is another nice one with widespread sunshine and mid 70’s for highs across the region. looks like the old front is staying well our south of us today keeping any showers with it.

2. week disturbances will travel along the old frontal boundary throughout the rest of the week any of these may be able to throw a shower north in southeastern sections of the state lows and highs will rise a degree or two each day during the week as this Canadian airmass gradually starts to lift out but temps for Tuesday will start out near 57 and rise to 78.

3. for now it looks like to me that the front will wash out and another high will move in leading to a dry and seasonably warm weekend with lows near 60 and highs just above 80. temps for the football games should be 72: cincy and 78: Knoxville.  however i could easily see a wrinkle or two coming  from this far out.

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a wrinkle to paradise

August 29, 2009

1. now that the front has moved through ourwell hyped cool dry airmass will dominate through the next week and into labor day weekend. however the front that passed through will slowly wash out east of the apps leaving open the window for a disturbance or two to travel NE along this old boundary during the week.

us map19

these disturbances may lead to more clouds than advertised and a small shower chance under 30% for monday tuesday and wednesday for areas SE of Jackson. for most of us skies will still be mostly sunny and highs in the mid 70’s, sounds like paradise to me. Don’t be surprised if there’s a passing shower SE.

weekend update

August 29, 2009

1. there’s a broken line of showers and storms coming throughon the front tonight again no daytime heating/ instability to aid  storms , coverage is limited only about 40% these should move east across the region exiting eastern Kentucky by early afternoon. highs will be a bit cooler in the low to mid 80’s. most of Saturday will be partly to mostly sunny.

radar to track storms

2. Sunday our cool blast sets in and stays through the middle of the week. with a dryer airmass and clear skies lows will be near 50 and highs in the mid 70’s for the early part of next week.

time to catch up

August 27, 2009

1. the move is now complete, almost! thanks for hanging tough folks for a very few busy days of mine. and a shout out to my family/ dad who helped me move.

2. friday will be similar to today hot and humid with scattered  late afternoon and evening storms,some of which will have hvy downpours with highs in the mid to upper 80’s with southerly flow.

3. saturday’s front will bring a powerful blast of Canadian air with it however storm coverage does not look that impressive and the timing for storms along the frontal passage does not look favorable in the morning. still coverage of 40-50% both days, highs saturday Will be in the lower 80’s due to clouds, lows will be in the mid to upper  60’s due to the high humidity.  

nam radar 1 pm et, 12 pm ct: notice how afternoon storm formation occurs east of most of us.

4. by sunday the new fresher fall airmass takes over big time once again the heat ridge is west of the Rockies. highs will be in the upper 70’s with a dryer airmass and clear skies lows should be able to fall into the mid 50’s.

00z nam

this is a good case type  for the winter when the magnitude of arctic airmasses is underestimated by the MOS which is what many forecasters solely use, so for early next week i will use raw numbers for temps forecasts with this blast of chilly air.

5. for monday and tuesday this airmass will completly dominate our weather with clear skies chilly nights lows near 50 and highs in the low 70’s north to mid 70’s south.

6. by wednesday the airmass will start to lift out allowing for highs to rebound back to average

I haven’t forgotten about danny, which will threaten the east coast

the good news is that shear continues near it is making the storm rather disorganized with winds under 50 mph this should not become a hurricane

the models project a path along the east coast still with a range from long island to out to sea for a landfall. i feel the nhc track is to far east as most of the operational and hurricane models/ ensemble forecasts are further west as well.

my path of tropical storm danny  reaching the carolina coast during the day late tommorow then up in new england by early sunday.

us map18

tweeks to the forecast, cool down coming

August 25, 2009

this is a quiet week for most of us till this weekend when things get active. we do have a week cool  front which will slowly break down this ridge and produce scattered storms by the end of the week ending this stretch of seasonabile and dry weather. I’m going to add 30% coverage for thursday and go 40 on fri and 50 on sat as a  powerful trough digs SE with the best chance for storms in the late afternoon each day. i still expect highs of mid 80’s for the majority of the week with a few upper 80’s wednesday and lower 80’s by friday.

by saturday and sunday highs will trend down each day to the upper 70’s by sunday as the powerful trough sweeps a cold front through early in the day to end rain chances.

ECMWF (EURO) shows the trough well

lows for most of this week should be in the 60’s but by early next week we could be talkin chilly nights with lows near 50 and highs barely reaching 70!! with this blast of air from canada.

danny, soon known as danny should be concern for the east coast as i think this has a good shot to be a cat 1 hurricane by saturday my threat zone is from the outerbanks to cape cod for a direct hit. i will revise this with more detail in the next post.

speaking of the next post hopefully it will be late tomorrow as this is my last day as a full time  versailles resident and will be at my house in bowling green tomorrow and looking forward to grad school starting on monday at WKU, i still have to get the Internet going there. i’ll have to update my twitter page as well and post details about the move for those interested.

the coverage area of this site will not change as 1-65 including bowling green was added several weeks ago.

thank you versailles for all you have given me!!