Archive for March, 2010

Natural Disaster in New England

March 30, 2010

A mix of heavy snows melting and several hvy rain producing nor-easters has led to a epic flood in New England this is worst flood since 1939 for Rhode Island.

http://www.windstream.net/wind/portal/NewsChannel.aspx?ArticleID=D9EP9Q680&CatID=TopHeadlines

while for us here are up to date numbers on the rainfall deficit this year.

Bowling Green -5.78 inches

Lexington -5.01 inches

 Louisville -4.73 inches

Jackson -1.55 inches

London -2.51 inches

US Drought Monitor, March 23, 2010

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weather pattern to pick up in April

March 30, 2010

here is the forecast from last post

2. Tuesday the low pressure slowly starts to lift out and high pressure across the northwest gulf slowly builds northeast resulting in a mix of sun and clouds with warmer highs in the mid 50’s to low 60’s.  here is a link to the 12z gfs model image.

3. By Wednesday the high pressure becomes firmally established over the Southeastern US pumping southerly flow and keeping any fronts away for the rest of the week. as a result highs will get well into the 70’s and maybe even the 80’s by weeks end for Keeneland opening day.  the 00z euro shows the SE ridge well.  This will likely be an extended stretch of spring fever!!

I wanted to add that my thoughts are for a warm April across the region. With the ridging developing this week that should be able to create more amplification of the jet as a result warmer and moister air will be in place coupled with some lingering cool airmasses to our north and west may provide for several chances for severe storms as well.

00z gfs chances

Apr 7

Apr 14

Overall this pattern is much warmer about 10-20 above average for highs. One more thing to remember each day without rain adds .15 to the deficit.

forecast for the week

March 28, 2010

1. Low pressure will still linger to our east as a result low clouds a nw wind and some drizzle will likely keep highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Don’t worry it gets better from here!

2. Tuesday the low pressure slowly starts to lift out and high pressure across the northwest gulf slowly builds northeast resulting in a mix of sun and clouds with warmer highs in the mid 50’s to low 60’s.  here is a link to the 12z gfs model image.

3. By Wednesday the high pressure becomes firmally established over the Southeastern US pumping southerly flow and keeping any fronts away for the rest of the week. as a result highs will get well into the 70’s and maybe even the 80’s by weeks end for Keeneland opening day.  the 00z euro shows the SE ridge well.  This will likely be an extended stretch of spring fever!!

next system coming in

March 27, 2010

sorry for the delay on this an the infreqency of posts, midterm season is always a busy one!!!!

we have another low with rain and thunder chances increasing again for Sunday

– period of rain in the morning  with thunder, this from the squall line trying to form in Arkansas

–  after this passes the low heads into ohio in the afternoon we may see a few peeks of sun ahead of the cold front which may allow for a thunderstorm or two to form ahead of the front. the spc has a see text, right now I’m not to concerned but a strong storm can’t be ruled out. dewpoints are just to low and the window for the atmosphere to become unstable isn’t that big.  

AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT LARGELY
   PARALLELS THE OH RIVER….ONLY LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   /SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO PERHAPS LOWER 50S F/ WILL
   EXIST IN THE PRE-COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER…AMPLE
   VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF
   HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO…MAINLY SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY/DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD
   COVER/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION…AFOREMENTIONED LIMITED MOISTURE/WEAK
   BUOYANCY PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
  
radar to track the squall line tonight

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

highs tommorow should be in the 50’s to low 60’s ahead of the cold front with some westerly and southerly flow then fall as the front moves through late in the day.

Rainy Thursday coming/ Drought Forming??? (updated)

March 24, 2010

A cold frontal system will move east on thursday with increasing showers and thunder due to southerly flow highs may get into the 60’s again even with cloud cover. Rain will be widespread Thursday night and the 12z gfs hints at an interesting tail end from this system. overall I think around 1/2 inch of rain will fall on average with some locations across the north seeing more than that.

Thursday afternoon

Friday midnight

Friday rush hour

watch for low level cold air to move in quicker than the models have. Highs Friday should be near 50 with clouds and nw flow.Another rain system should follow for Sunday. After this a much warmer pattern is finally coming in the long range!!!

In the past several months KY has had signficantly below normal precip each month since nov leading to a signficant precip shortfall in the region. here is the latest palmer drought map.

Our temperature battle from Monday for BWG  with the NWS:  the high was 48*. The NWS had 58*and this site had 40* 5 days in advance, 49* was the push with this, so barely a win, but a miss by several degrees is still not that good.