Archive for July, 2010

Weekend forecast

July 29, 2010

 1. A week front will start heading south toward our area Friday for a continued chance for afternoon thunder showers both days. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds can’t be ruled out in and storms, but no severe weather is expected at this time.

2. By Saturday, this frontal boundary will join with a more organized system and head northeastward, moving into our region yet again. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will also be possible on Saturday with a more isolated chance Sunday.

3. Temperatures will feature highs in the upper 80’s to low 90s and lows in the 70s with humid conditions.

scattered storms this week

July 26, 2010

Basically we’ll be on the edge of the heat again and with the leftover’s Sunday’s front, a storm trigger across southern ky this week, afternoon  evening hit and miss storms will be possible again with isolated severe weather and locally hvy rains. Storm coverage Monday should range from 30% in the north to 50% in the south increasing to about 50% Tuesday and Wednesday across the region. The storm coverage will also be aided from Bonnie’s leftovers. A new front should keep storm chances going into Thursday. By the weekend we may be in active pattern for mcs’s as there will be more in the way of disturbances rotating around the ridge expected to be positioned in the southern plains this week. I’m expecting highs in the mid 80’s to low 90’s depending on storms with lows in the upper 60’s and low 7o’s through Thursday.

afternoon update

July 25, 2010

A line of strong storms will move southeast across eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening. Across portions of southeast ky the atmosphere has become very unstable however shear, helicity indicators only indicate a limited severe potential. This line of storms with hvy rains and 40 mph wind gusts will reach Danville, west liberty and Berea in the next 30 minutes and Jackson in about an hour continuing southeast toward Pikeville early this evening. With the unstable conditions an isolated severe storm or two is possible in the circled zone.

radar

Central Great Lakes sector loop

area of concern

slight risk of severe storms tommorow sound familar???

July 24, 2010

spc

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE NERN STATES SUNDAY. AT THE SFC…A SHARPLY DEFINED COLD
   FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND CNTRL
   APPALACHIAN MTNS. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. THIS
   SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
   THE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS REGION AND
   SEVERAL LINE-SEGMENTS OR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
   EVENING.
  
   CONCERNING THE ENVIRONMENT…A BROAD 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET
   SHOULD BE LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THE NERN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
   THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT AND
   CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND
   MID-ATLANTIC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN KY…WV AND
   NRN VA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE SUGGESTING
   STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AND A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALSO SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB
   SUGGESTING THE MORE PERSISTENT LINE-SEGMENTS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL
   FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT POSSIBLE IN
   AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED.

looking at some of modeling today I have to agree as the amount of energy available in the atmosphere should be sufficient for the developement of some strong to severe across the region. However I think there more indicating of a more isolated threat than suggested in the spc discussion. Gusty winds are the main threat tomorrow.  I’ll update again tomorrow morning on this. For more on the previous week which was very active in terms of severe weather scroll down to the previous post.

Storm recap week of July15th-22nd

July 23, 2010

Storms in the early Morning hours July 16th

Map of 100716_rpts's severe weather reports

radar recap July 16th

http://radblast-sf.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite_archive?centerlat=37.99557495&centerlon=-85.95321655&radius=124&newmaps=1&type=N0R&type2=TR0&num=24&SD.epoch=1279252800&ED.epoch=1279339199&DELAY=60&delay=20&width=640&height=480

this was the first mcs in this period to move the midwest into Kentucky mainly impacting western and central portions of the state with scattered reports of wind damage in the early morning hours sunday with trees and power lines down in several regions. The outflow boundary from this mcs provided for additional storms over southern ky later that day.

July 17th

spc reports

Map of 100717_rpts's severe weather reports

Another early morning period of strong storms this time unexpected fired along 1-64 from Louisville to Lexington and moved northeast. later that afternoon more discrete cells and some storm clusters fired along the front these were slow movers with gusty winds and flash flooding, this day the community of Shelbyville was hard hit.

http://radblast-sf.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite_archive?centerlat=37.99557495&centerlon=-85.95321655&radius=124&newmaps=1&type=N0R&type2=TR0&num=24&SD.epoch=1279339200&ED.epoch=1279425599&DELAY=60&delay=20&width=640&height=480

July 18th

Map of 100718_rpts's severe weather reports

A squall line of thunderstorms formed along a morning mcs system early in the afternoon  this line redeveloped over southern KY after dissipating somewhat over the 1-65 area.The limiting factor this day was the amount of cloud cover ahead of the line.

July 19th

A mcd became better organized in the afternoon to our northwest rapidly sweeping across Kentucky into the evening. Numerous reports of wind damage occurred across the region with 6 injuries  at the bluegrass fair. the Kentucky mesonet recorded several of the strong wind gusts over 50 mph with doppler radar estimating some of the gusts near 70 mph. Once again this was another controversal day for the spc which did not issue a watch in regions that saw these top winds and injuries occurred on Monday . Several regions also flooding rains where clusters of storms moved over the same locations particularly the southern portions of the Lexington metro. This complex was aided by a particularly unstable airmass with cape values over 3000 and LI values approaching -10.

Map of 100719_rpts's severe weather reports

http://radblast-sf.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite_archive?centerlat=37.99557495&centerlon=-85.95321655&radius=124&newmaps=1&type=N0R&type2=TR0&num=24&SD.epoch=1279512000&ED.epoch=1279598399&DELAY=60&delay=20&width=640&height=480

July 20th

Map of 100720_rpts's severe weather reports

although reports of severe weather were isolated several clusters of storms formed across northern Kentucky that afternoon after the northwest  portion of the region saw another mcs. These clusters moved over northeast Kentucky all night with some locations south of Maysville getting 8 inches of rain from this. The city of Morehead was placed under two tornado warnings as well along with a few northern ky counties. This was due to increased shear and helicity values  across the region which allowed for some storms to develop rotation.  Even with these factors in place and a confirmed tornado outside of our region another controversal discion was made by the spc not to issue a tornado watch.

http://radblast-sf.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite_archive?centerlat=37.99557495&centerlon=-85.95321655&radius=124&newmaps=1&type=N0R&type2=TR0&num=24&SD.epoch=1279598400&ED.epoch=1279684799&DELAY=60&delay=20&width=640&height=480

July 21st

Once again the severe reports were limited however an mcs trained over south central Kentucky that afternoon after moving the bluegrass in the morning. Numerous reports of flooding occurred just north of the Bowling Green metro.

http://radblast-sf.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite_archive?centerlat=37.99557495&centerlon=-85.95321655&radius=124&newmaps=1&type=N0R&type2=TR0&num=24&SD.epoch=1279684800&ED.epoch=1279771199&DELAY=60&delay=20&width=640&height=480