W rules the day

1. Wow what a windy and warm day across the region with winds gusting from south as expected but from 20-30 mph blowing around a lot of leaves and likely blow some of those loose outdoor objects around, make sure to have two hands on the wheel when driving on north/south roads as well. A look at temperatures has getting well into the 70’s today with 80 at Louisville right now, i could see Frankfort  and few other areas hitting 80 today as well.

nws

.GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON
EAST-TO-WEST ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.

USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING TODAY AS SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WILL MAKE FOR
DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES.

A look at the long-range which is in question with the euro ensembles showing cold
 with the gfs going warm compared to avg. let's look at some teleconnections for
clues. 

- the PNA is going slightly positive 
- the AO is expected to go negative 
- the NAO is expected to stay neutral

This to me says we should stay around normal for the foreseeable future. 

late week update

1. A frontal system which has produced big time snows for Denver and severe storms to our west today will continue to slowly creep east for the rest of the week bringing flash flooding for the  lower miss valley. For us this means an increase of southerly winds as a ridge of high pressure moves off the east coast ahead of the front. This ridge will also weaken and slow down the eastward movement of this front. We should see a mix of sun and clouds for thursday and friday with more clouds friday. highs should range throughout the 60’s in the region with lows around 50 to start thursday and friday. There may also be some dense fog thursday morning due to lots of residual moisture in the ground, high humidity and light winds. There is a dense fog adv for the south.

 …DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 10 AM
EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 10 AM
EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY.

CLEARING SKIES…LIGHT WINDS…AND PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VISIBILITIES OF
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE IN THIS FOG. THE BEST TIME FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO BE AFTER 4 AM EDT…3 AM CDT IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

2. This front comes through Halloween though weaker with just periods of showers during the day. Something to watch for is a secondary low development which could keep the rain showers through saturday night. the winds should switch from the south to northwest behind the front with steady temps in the low to mid 50’s saturday across the region.  SO mark the UK game and trick o treating as wet.

models coming into agreement

1. It’s continues to amaze me how the gfs is a day behind the euro in terms of model output. the euro for a few days now has been showing a low from the Rockies into the upper midwest and just last night the gfs switched to that solution.

2. With that being said how does this solution impact our region?

3. i still expect this first week front to produce a period of showers from late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a low pressure is drawn into this system. overall highs should be in the 60’s with lows in the lower 50’s as clouds increase tonight and linger into Wednesday with clearing during the day.I expect rainfall amounts to be around 1/2 inch. winds should be fairly light from the ne then from nw behind the low.

4. Thursday and Friday should see the main attraction this week blast its way from the Rockies into the upper mid west as a ridge strengthens in the east this means strong southerly flow for the region with highs well into the 70’s if excessive cloudcover stays away.The associated frontal boundary with this will produce periods of showers and storms by Friday night and Halloween. the ridge off the east coast should continue to pump in surface winds out of the se winds behind the front will be westerly to northwesterly upper level winds setting the stage for a potential for storms near the frontal system to rotate and with instability caused by heating of the day these storms could have damaging winds.

the spc has already highlighted days 4 and 5 near our region.

spc

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
   SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES NEWD
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME. 
   BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE
   THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY WHERE DEEPENING OF
   THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NOTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.  WITH
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RETURN ACROSS THE SCNTRL
   U.S...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT ACROSS OK/TX DAY4...THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY DAY5
   WHERE FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  IF SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO IL/IND ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   LIKELY OCCUR AS INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
   THIS REGION.

intresting week ahead

1. sunday and monday should be rather pleasant for the region under high pressure with highs in the mid 60’s on avg.

2. ridging should build into the Ohio valley with southerly flow for most of the week however a week front with low pressure should bring a period of showers for late Tuesday into Wednesday with 50’s for lows and 60’s for highs, most of Tuesday and thursday should be sunny.

3. A monster trough in the west will move east with a sharp cold front I think we warm up into the 70’s ahead but have a cool day in the 40’s for highs behind it, the main question is does it come through thursday or even after Halloween.

thursday and friday rain threat

1. a frontal system roles in from the plains with a strong low and periods of rain and storms to our west by thursday afternoon. the southern low is the leftovers of rick.

GFS

2.  friday morning the front heads into kentucky with periods of rain and storms

3.  we get into a dry slot by friday afternoon with temps both days in the 60’s for highs with 50’s for lows.

fri pm gfs

– periods of rain and storms from this front thursday night and friday morning with 1/2-1 inch of rain

– there could be a strong storm or two with gusty winds, winds will be gusty out of the south ahead of the front.

– drizzle should continue into saturday with cooler temps and a nw flow.