Archive for September, 2010

What do with Sunday’s disturbance?

September 30, 2010

1. First let’s hit on the next few days Friday and Saturday should be mostly sunny with  more clouds and a slight shower chance Friday over the far eastern portion of the state. Highs on Friday and Saturday should range from the mid 60’s to mid 70’s across the region with warmer temps on Friday I’m expecting lows in the 50’s.

2. On Sunday we once again have some model disagreement the ECMWF is increasing amplification  of the jet by Sunday with an approaching upper level disturbance which slows and develops this system while the GFS is moving this system east very rapidly to our north. The ECMWF solution would have lows in the upper 40’s and highs in the low to mid 50’s with rain showers while the GFS solution would be relativity dry and highs in the 60’s. Right now my thinking is more toward the ECMWF than GFS as the NAM is trending in that direction. Right now lows in the upper 40’s and highs near 60 with a chance for showers by Sunday morning seems reasonable. As I hinted at yesterday this system may cut-off over the region leading to a few more days of clouds and showers for next week.

Let’s take a look at the NAM, GFS comparison

GFS

NAM

Notice how the nam is stronger and more closed off and less progressive than the gfs thus it’s slower moving and stronger at the surface. A common bias with the GFS is that it’s to fast with the flow on occasions, we’ll see if that the case this time.

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the model war is over

September 29, 2010

Have no fear out east skeptical views of the 12z nam including mine do have merit as the NAM has shifted the track of td #16 up the east coast keeping only a slight shower chance for the far east on Thu-Fri. The next issue to watch will be a shortwave coming through the trough by the end of the weekend possibly leading to the formation of a cut-off low over the region.

12z NAM????

September 28, 2010

Really????

The gfs has only light amounts in eastern ky.  Thursday into Friday could get wet around here if the NAM has it’s way.

Let the Model Wars Begin

September 28, 2010

Today low pressure is moving northeast into the northeast which is still providing for some cloud cover today with fair skies overall and a nw flow with highs in the lower 70’s. Tomorrow skies should be mostly sunny with the nw flow keeping highs in the low to mid 70’s. Heading out later this week we have model disagreement on the track of Nicole. One camp we have the Canadian/ nam which brings the track up the Appalachian mountains and phases the system with a deeping trough. The other option is for the tropical system to move up the east coast and not phase till it reaches canada. the first track would bring mostly cloudy condtions Thursday and Friday with the rain bands moving through a good portion of KY and highs in the 60’s. The second option would bring what most forecasts indicate sunny skies and 70’s.

Thursday night 06z nam

Thursday night 06z gfs

Storm gets going to our east

September 27, 2010

1. Well the excessive rainfall threat has gone by the wayside. With this system not organizing untill it’s east of Kentucky the excessive rains will continue to be confined to the south and mid-atlantic states with the surface low pressure moving up the Appalachian mountains. This is a set-up folks we will be wanting in winter the southeast shift in track with the colder temps and n flow over KY.  For us this means low clouds and light showers over the next few days with the n flow highs should be near 70 Tuesday and Wednesday with a large range across the region with lows in the mid 50’s.

2. This moisture plume will be continue to stream into the east coast throughout the week with a trough becoming established over the Ohio valley As clipper mania could start.

the question is why this pattern change????

teleconnections…

PNA

AO

+ PNA and – AO, remember what a role the -AO played last winter.