Archive for August, 2008

holiday weekend forecast ( updated)

August 28, 2008

1. this forecast will be through monday the week ahead forecast will be monday instead of sunday this week with the holiday. the next schedule change is not untill thanksgiving week.

a whole lot to go over with football underway in the bluegrass and a lot of other things things going on this weekend.

high school sports have started up this weekend I’ll throw out some games and weather conditions for a few sports outdoor of course. 

high school football

Washington.co@ Lincoln.co  late afternoon storms ending by gametime  83 sw wind 4 mph.

Boone co @ Scott.co  gradual clearing, storms ending 40% chance lightning between 7-8 77 w wind near 5 mph.

Jackson co @ Powell.co scattered storms 50% chance lightning between 7:30-9:30 84 sw wind 6 mph.

i can already see that helecopter flying around the bluegrass already. I’ll play it by year with the high school games and see how it works. let me know your favorite team so i can post accordingly. I will try to get every area of the bluegrass.

holiday destinations  (we’ll get to louisville later) these are cities i think my auidence would go i’m probably way off but here’s a list

– Gatlinburg,Tn fri: fair 65/86  sat: am shower 66/83 sun: fair 65/86 mon: fair  65/87

– Chicago,Ill  fri: clearing 63/80 sat: sunny 57/82 sun: sunny 63/84 mon: sunny 66/88

– Nashville, TN fri: scatt strosm late (40%) 65/88 sat: fair 64/86 sun: fair 66/88 mon: fair 66/88

– Orlando, Fl fri-mon: scatt afternoon storms (40%) 69/89

UK VS UL GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  OH C-A-T-S  CATS CATS CATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sun 3:30 sunny 86 s wind at 3 mph.

score for fun only: UK 21, UL 20 F  my season pick is for a 5-7 record for the cats, more motivation to try and get to the music city bowl.

now on to our usual routine

1. today will feature clearing skies as we make it into the mid 80’s west and near 80 east where clouds will hang on longer with some more drizzle.

2. a week cold front will move through friday afternoon and evening with a storm or two best chances NW areas 4-6 then SE by 8-10 PM. the majority of the region should stay dry. However breif downpours and lightning are possible. highs will be in the mid 80’s. Update: storms have formed along 1-65 as of 4 pm will move thorugh lexington around 5 then east into the evening hours.

3. we clear out for saturday and sunday which should be mostly sunny with mid 80’s for highs little weather impact on UK/UL.

4. labor day looks great as well for one last blast of summer fun mid to upper 80’s and mostly sunny.

5. the bad news is not much signficant rain in sight for several days adding to the summer shortage. what might help us is more tropical mositure as things are heating up big time!!!! one thing that is left out of tropical outlooks including mine is that tropical systems can help big time with our deficits but they  destroy and kill some to get here. now would be a good time to hope/prey ( if you belive along those lines) for little death and destruction these next couple of active weeks as the peek of hurricane season is here.

tropical update

1. gustav ( please correct if any spelling errors occur i had peen writing gustov)

 

– my thinking is that gustav moves west then makes a nw turn into the cent gulf partly due to this weekend’s week front. most of the data is tightly clustered for this early in the forecast. I agree with the NHC’s track for now as it is a good mean of data i have to look at. but i decided to extend the track a few days to south of little rock by thu near evansville IN fri and pittsburgh Pa for sat, I’m thinking the next front turns it NE. So again tropical rains are possibilty after gustov hits louisana as a major hurricane since there will be little shear and very warm water.  

Hanna the new kid on the block

should continue to drift nw than w into the carribean by the end of the holiday weekend. once again condtions are favorable for another hurricane to form. My thinking is Hanna is a threat to the florida by late next week and then hook out to sea with no impact on ky getting picked up by that same front.

– there even two other waves trying to form into storms for the 10-20 day period.

have a great holiday weekend, my only holiday for the term untill thanksgiving is this weekend so hopefully i will enjoy it.

Fall Forecast

August 26, 2008

I’ll leave the summer grade up for a few more days. My fall term at UK starts wednesday so what better day to post a fall forecast than the day before.

Fall forecast indicators

– ridge has been in place to our north making for very dry condtions this month this feature has moved out but the soil is very dry with the usually dry fall months coming.

– the arctic is cooler than usual for this time of year, the CFS model ( seasonal) also has several cool early cool blasts

– the heat ridge will slaken off into the fall but still be centered over the rocky mtns.

– tropical activity should be above normal

forecast

jet stream

Precip B=Below norm A= Above norm N= Near norm

temps

for us

temps: below normal

precip: below normal

date of first frost: oct 12

date of first freeze: oct 26

first flakes of s-n-o-w !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  nov 3

this outlook is for aug 26-nov 30. dec is technically fall so a little preview

– colder than norm with more precip as we try and head out of a slight drought.  

winter thoughts

farmers alamnac: cold and snowy

new farmers almanac: cold wet snowy windy and wild. 

analog years- 2 cold with avg snow 1- mild

CFS- frequent changes between very cold and very mild, several big storms

Fay forecast

August 25, 2008

1. the cold front and fay have made a nice combo on  a line from lawrenceburg to versailles to lexington and now onto sw clark county where 1-3 inches has fallen according to doppler radar, even some pea size hail.  the bad side effect is that my sisters flight this evening was cancelled, a little extra excitement today.

2. more showers and storms will be in the cards through wednesday. I have raised the upper bar for rain totals a bit due to rain that has already  fallen. the NAM is further west bringing the hvy rain just east of 1-75 and the GFS focus is eastern ky. in between is usually a good bet when the models differ and they have been shifting toward some middle ground. there will also be a sharp cutoff with precip, my aniexty level in versailles is less with today’s rain but the cutoff for hvy rains later in the week is close. all of the rain will be NE of the center. with the storms gusty winds and isolated tornadoes are possible.  I’ll update this total map tommorow.

3. gustov poped up quick today could be another gulf storm.

finally fay

August 24, 2008

1. monday and tuesday will be overcast due to the clouds from fay with a slight storm chance with help from a very week front highs will be held in the mid 80’s as well.

2. finally fay begins tuesday night as the leftover center begins it north and east charge after wandering around the gulf coast. showers/ rain and storms should get going tuesday night and last into early thursday some gusty winds and an isolated tornado are possibile as well near the center of td fay wednesday afternoon. the steady rains should be wednesday morning. let’s take a look at the NAM and GFS

00Z NAM total precip ( yippee!!!)

that shows 3-5 inches of rain for most by thursday am.

NAM  tue eve

nam tue overnight/ wed rush hour

nam wed pm

– rain and storms move in overnight tuesday with hvy rain wed am followed by afternoon storms ending by thu. highs will be in the low 80’s if either model is right

GFS rain total ( not as much of a yippee!)

 

a general 1-2 inches on the 18Z GFS.

GFS tue eve

gfs wed noon

I think things will be a bit more than that noon wed.

the euro keeps most of rain and fay’s center over the southern apps. I think the center of fay will head from alabama into eastern ky with a 1-3 inch area of rain from a casey county to frankfort line east. lesser amounts west of this line.

things will clear out by friday. I might just make it by midnight my phills are playing a long one tonight

the weekend ahead

August 21, 2008

1. much of the focus this week has been on fay which has produced lots of flooding over florida and will continue to in the next few days. this is the worst outcome for the remants which will be slow to move to the west, i’ve watched paint dry faster than fay’s west movement. my thoughts go out to those who are in the flooded areas. the ridge just put the smackdown on fay and my forecast that this would act like a typical tropical system, preventing any north or east movement from fay. 

2. friday and saturday should be quiet as a disturbance mocks our dry lawns and plants to the west since the soil is drying out things will warm quicker during the day and 850 mb temps can be a little cooler to produce hot weather. highs now look top 90 both days wihtout extra clouds from fay with the dryer ground.

3. the front draws closer sunday with a scattered storm chance highs will be a little under 90 with more humid condtions. by monday and tuesday some moisture from fay coupled with the front should produce a better storm chance hopefully.

– a few leaves are already starting to turn color in versailles speaking of that my FALL FORECAST COMES OUT ON TUESDAY.