upcoming storm not looking to promising

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well the cold will be in place this week a track to our south from texas to Carolina. The bad part is the phasing and development of the storm won’t really take place till it’s east of us. This means snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday with light accums maybe some inch totals here and there with 1-3 southeast. We have a few days untill then.

1. Sunday will be a mostly cloudy maybe fair across the south and west as the leftovers of the noreaster diminish across the region with more light snow showers across the north and east however little additional accumulations are expected any many places will fall short of the snow map totals as that period of snow just encountered to much dry air. highs will range from the mid 30’s ne to mid 40’s sw.

2. looking at the model images for monday this storm would appear to give us a good chance for snow as it moves eastward. However high pressure moving in from Canada and the fact is only very week will mean precip mainly stays to our south. with a good deal of sun highs should get into the 40’s.

gfs mon pm

the main storm only gives us a glancing blow as it doesn’t get it act going till it reaches florida and turns northward. However an upper air disturbance and outer edges of this storm should give the region some snow showers both days and nights with lows in the 20’s and highs in the mid 30’s though near 40 which may mean some daytime rain as well there. accums should stay light but I’m still watching for far eastern ky to catch some steady snow Tuesday night which make it an advisory event there.

gfs tue night

This was supposed the grand finale which a week ago all the models had a 6+ snow here what happened???

A: the new england noreaster which the models did not have a good handle on the cut-off nature of this storm led to a 500 mb pattern more condusive for a track farther south

B: the models last Sunday did not have a weak wave which tracked across the deep south yesterday. This will lead to less moisture in place for this storm

C: Modeling also did not have the high coming in with a stronger northerly flow which will also favor a further south track.

3. warm-up starts late this week with WAA coming in waves look for temp busts again though not as bad as last weekend, I for one picked up on the reminder not to underestimate this after last weekend’s hard lesson/bust. my 14 day forecast will be updated in a few. This warm-up will likely to lead to a plains low with a thunderstorm event here around the 9th then  much colder air and still some more snow chances.

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2 Responses to “upcoming storm not looking to promising”

  1. mitchg Says:

    14 day forecast now up check out mar 9th!!!

  2. mitchg Says:

    snowiest feb ever @ CVG!!!!

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