cheers and jeers

by

1. cheers to today warm sunny and less hunidity as high pressure is in place with highs in the mid to upper 70’s.

2. jeers to a week frontal boundry sliding into the upper ohio valley tommorow with a complex of storms forming along it by late morning and moving in for the afternoon. this complex will produce storms will gusty winds, small hail and more very hvy rains. severe weather and localized flooding will be issues again.  highs will be near 80.

nam sat am

nam early afternoon

nam early evening

looks a bit higher than 20% chance to me which is what most forecasts have. this is the 12z guidence which has really amped up storm chances. the 12z gfs has a nice coverage of afternoon storms as well.

the spc has a slight risk for severe weather for the region on saturday

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

overall expect another rainout of plans saturday, we still have today!

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5 Responses to “cheers and jeers”

  1. mitchg Says:

    spc

    AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL REMAIN IN
    PLACE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES SEWD
    INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SFC…A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
    BE LOCATED FROM NRN MO ESEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO CNTRL KY SATURDAY.
    GFS/NAM/NAMKF AND SREF MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
    LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ACROSS
    IL…SRN IND AND WRN KY IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL
    JET. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OR NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH
    OF THE CLUSTER SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL KY
    DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL KY
    AT 21Z SATURDAY SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF
    VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
    SEVERE THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. AT THIS TIME…CONVECTIVE
    MODE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAN
    ORGANIZE…THEN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF
    LINE-SEGMENTS ARE FAVORED…THEN THE PREDOMINANT THREAT COULD BE
    WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
    SYSTEM. IF THE TIMING IS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY

  2. Mitchg Says:

    severe thunderstorm watch for the region through this evening a strong storm passed along 1-64 this evening.

  3. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    1119 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT

    * AT 1117 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
    HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW
    CASTLE TO SMITHFIELD…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR…
    EMINENCE AROUND 1130 PM EDT…
    PLEASUREVILLE AND CROPPER AROUND 1135 PM EDT…
    LOCKPORT AND DEFOE AROUND 1140 PM EDT…

  4. mitchg Says:

    O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-090531T0345Z/
    ROWAN KY-ELLIOTT KY-
    1118 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT
    FOR ELLIOTT AND EAST CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES…

    AT 1117 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
    HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
    LOCATED NEAR WAGNER STORE…OR 9 MILES EAST OF MOREHEAD…MOVING EAST
    AT 30 MPH.

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    FARLEY…FANNIN VALLEY AND LYTTEN BY 1125 PM EDT…
    STARK…NEWFOUNDLAND AND SANDY HOOK BY 1135 PM EDT…
    BRUIN…CULVER AND 6 MILES NORTH OF ISONVILLE BY 1145 PM EDT…

  5. mitchg Says:

    KYC127-WVC099-310615-
    /O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-090531T0615Z/
    LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE WV-
    135 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM EDT
    FOR SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN KENTUCKY…AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY
    IN WEST VIRGINIA…

    AT 135 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
    HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
    LOCATED NEAR CHARLEY…OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLAINE…MOVING EAST
    AT 40 MPH.

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