Warming up again this week… Next Weekend a cutter…. February overall continues the warm talk

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Let’s break down Monday through Wednesday first

1. We saw a shot of normal air this weekend. As I keep saying overall most days above normal a shot of normal air for a few days at a time then warm again I don’t see any change in this through Feb.

2. Lows tonight should range from the mid 20’s to low 30’s valley locations have a shot at some of the colder temps. I expect some mixing so most of us on the higher end of that but if winds do go calm 20’s overnight for most as dewpoints are pretty low.

3. Once again Monday strong WAA comes into the region along with zonal flow from the pacific as well. In the image below you can see the rising heights and the overall zonal pattern.

That equates to another warm period. In fact with pelnty of sun highs should be well into the 50’s perhaps a few locations close to 60. Southwesterly winds will also be on the increase from 10-25 mph with higher gusts.

2. Tuesday my thinking is for a slow increase in clouds after lows in 30’s highs should crack 60 in most spots maybe even mid 60’s south. Once again another breezy day with similar winds as Monday.  Tuesday night brings a good chance for scattered showers ahead of the next front with quite a few of us staying near 50 for lows Tuesday night.

3. More scattered showers Wednesday with highs in the 50’s, low 60’s for southern KY. Winds will likely decrease some as well.

 

Next weekend cutter

– Weeker low Thursday with continued shower chance

after that is at least a little interesting.

– Strong energy should cut into the southern plains by weeks end

– The mid week system may allow for more seasonabile air to come into the region

– A pretty strong low pressure should form in the southern plains Friday and move east/northeast, my thinking is the almost cut-off nature of this low being portrayed on the models along with an attempt to rise heights again ahead of it allows it to cut west of the mtns.

– As many of you know this is a rain to flurries set-up but still several days away. low level cold will not be a concern for ice. This outcome is one that favors regions from OK/AR/MO/IL/IN/OH into the interior northeast. the 500 mb pattern also argues this low while tracking overhead forms a  secondary low offshore perhaps making things interesting further northeast as well.

– I do see the +PNA, -AO with a neutral NAO. I don’t think the teleconnections are outstanding but won’t be a prohibiting factor either.

Storm track for 2/3-/5

Of course it’s 7 days out do you really want to be in the white region indicating a snow chance? lol.

Now onto Feb as a whole. I like the look a blend of my two last winter analogs gives 56-57 and 1971-72 for the month of Feb.

 

– I do see a window where the northeast can see some cooler weather during the first of the month

– later in the month the euro weeklies try to bring some chill into the northern plains and Rockies.

– southern plains warmest overall

– MJO in phases 6 and 7 through the first half of the month perhaps by month’s end we get into 8,1,2 with a more favorable teleconnection pattern now we may still have a shot in Mar at some chill and snow.

– Not seeing any strat warming episodes coming up.

– My Jan forecast as slightly to cool in thinking the strat warming would have more an influence it did but corresponded with a – PNA which dumped the resulting cold into the west.

Feb temp forecast

 

 

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5 Responses to “Warming up again this week… Next Weekend a cutter…. February overall continues the warm talk”

  1. Cam the Man Says:

    Hope that ‘A’ boundary will shrink…but you’re probably right :/

  2. marsha Says:

    mitch you just don’t give us any good news anymore you sound for like the nws these days but i guess its just a sucky winter and don’t look like iys going to get any better

  3. lipper Says:

    love your blog!!!

  4. mitch Says:

    weekend storm to cut even further west than I currently have on here as the track. Update tomorrow.

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