weather pattern to pick up in April


here is the forecast from last post

2. Tuesday the low pressure slowly starts to lift out and high pressure across the northwest gulf slowly builds northeast resulting in a mix of sun and clouds with warmer highs in the mid 50’s to low 60’s.  here is a link to the 12z gfs model image.

3. By Wednesday the high pressure becomes firmally established over the Southeastern US pumping southerly flow and keeping any fronts away for the rest of the week. as a result highs will get well into the 70’s and maybe even the 80’s by weeks end for Keeneland opening day.  the 00z euro shows the SE ridge well.  This will likely be an extended stretch of spring fever!!

I wanted to add that my thoughts are for a warm April across the region. With the ridging developing this week that should be able to create more amplification of the jet as a result warmer and moister air will be in place coupled with some lingering cool airmasses to our north and west may provide for several chances for severe storms as well.

00z gfs chances

Apr 7

Apr 14

Overall this pattern is much warmer about 10-20 above average for highs. One more thing to remember each day without rain adds .15 to the deficit.


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