models coming into agreement

by

1. It’s continues to amaze me how the gfs is a day behind the euro in terms of model output. the euro for a few days now has been showing a low from the Rockies into the upper midwest and just last night the gfs switched to that solution.

2. With that being said how does this solution impact our region?

3. i still expect this first week front to produce a period of showers from late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a low pressure is drawn into this system. overall highs should be in the 60’s with lows in the lower 50’s as clouds increase tonight and linger into Wednesday with clearing during the day.I expect rainfall amounts to be around 1/2 inch. winds should be fairly light from the ne then from nw behind the low.

4. Thursday and Friday should see the main attraction this week blast its way from the Rockies into the upper mid west as a ridge strengthens in the east this means strong southerly flow for the region with highs well into the 70’s if excessive cloudcover stays away.The associated frontal boundary with this will produce periods of showers and storms by Friday night and Halloween. the ridge off the east coast should continue to pump in surface winds out of the se winds behind the front will be westerly to northwesterly upper level winds setting the stage for a potential for storms near the frontal system to rotate and with instability caused by heating of the day these storms could have damaging winds.

the spc has already highlighted days 4 and 5 near our region.

spc

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
   SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES NEWD
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME. 
   BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE
   THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY WHERE DEEPENING OF
   THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NOTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.  WITH
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RETURN ACROSS THE SCNTRL
   U.S...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT ACROSS OK/TX DAY4...THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY DAY5
   WHERE FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  IF SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO IL/IND ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   LIKELY OCCUR AS INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
   THIS REGION.

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