turn around don’t drown

by

numerous flood warnings are in effect for areas north and west of Lexington due to the considerable amount of rain in recent days. Here is my forecast issued earlier today. Temperatures will generally be in the 70’s and 80’s for highs with lows in the 60’s.

Highlights:
– frontal boundary to remain in region throughout forecast period

– periods of thunderstorms each day with severe weather threats

– risk for flash flooding by Wednesday night

Discussion:
A frontal boundary which has been nearly stationary along the Ohio
river will shift slightly northward Sunday night and Monday. Another
round of showers and storms will be likely from Sunday afternoon into
the overnight hours as this boundary shifts north, locally heavy rain
and isolated severe storms are possible. During the day Monday
isolated storms are still expected along the boundary instability
present may allow a few of these to reach severe limits with a threat
for gusty winds and hail. A low pressure system will enhance the
coverage of showers and storms late Monday night with another threat
for heavy rain( up to 1.5 inches from Sunday afternoon-Monday
night)and severe weather in the form of gusty winds. Once again during
the day Tuesday coverage of storms becomes more scattered with a
continued isolated severe threat. A stronger low pressure system will
track over the region along the boundary late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. These features will enhance the heavy rain threat and
lead to a likely widespread additional 2 to locally 4 inches of rain
which may result in flash flooding. In addition severe storms are
possible on the leading edge of this system in the form of gusty winds
and isolated tornadoes. With a almost constant threat for severe
weather and likely hydrological hazards throughout the forecast period
the STN will remain on alert for the foreseeable future. Further
statements for severe watches and warnings, activations and flood
warnings may be needed.
MWG

– southeast of lexington amounts will be much lighter untill roughly Wednesday. Less of a flood threat for JKL, Somerset and Pikeville.

For the rest of us

CVG,BWG, LOU, LEX

– addtional heavy rains will lead to continued probbanilty of flooding

 This is the confrence call out of the paducah office thanks to Beau Dodson for providing the link which discusses the hazardus of this upcoming event.  My concern level is high as flooding which is already in progress will only get worse in the coming days. I have other obligations, meetings, classwork which also demand my attention but i will do the best i can to relay warnings and provide insights in the commets section over the next few days.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/pah/briefs/latest.mp3

 
 
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11 Responses to “turn around don’t drown”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    I shall help out as much as I can Mitch.

  2. mitchg Says:

    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    905 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

    KYC071-119-133-193-195-260130-
    /O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-110426T0130Z/
    FLOYD KY-PIKE KY-KNOTT KY-PERRY KY-LETCHER KY-
    905 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LETCHER…EAST
    CENTRAL PERRY…KNOTT…EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PIKE AND SOUTHWESTERN
    FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT…

    AT 901 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
    HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
    LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARRIE TO AMELIA TO OSCALOOSA TO
    PAYNE GAP…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    HINDMAN…WHITCO…COLLY…TINA…SPIDER…VAN…SACKETT…
    MARLOWE…MAYKING…BRINKLEY…BELLCRAFT…TILLIE…PAYNE GAP…
    SERGENT…IVIS…CROWN…WRIGHT…MALLIE…VEST AND WINTERS.

  3. mitchg Says:

    another line of thunderstorms heading toward western sections of the region BWG stands best chance to be impacted by gusty winds from this. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVERNIGHT. this inlcudes BWG and e-town.

    entire region will see addtional rainfall perhaps over an inch overnight. I saw the GFS spitting out 6-7 inches over the bluegrass Wednesday, not good.

  4. mitchg Says:

    line of strong storms with gusty winds around 50 mph moving into central kentucky.

  5. mitchg Says:

    supercell to track toward e-town in the next 30 min.

  6. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHEASTERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHEASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 830 PM EDT/730 PM CDT/…

    * AT 701 PM CDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE
    GROUND JUST NORTH OF LEITCHFIELD. GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IS ALSO
    PRESENT WITH THIS STORM.

    * THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    TAR HILL AND LIMP…
    SOLWAY AND BIG CLIFTY…
    SUMMIT AND VERTREES…
    EASTVIEW AND WHITE MILLS JUNCTION…

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED! TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING NOW.
    MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES ARE NOT SAFE.

    TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
    STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS…MOVE TO
    THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
    DEBRIS.

  7. mitchg Says:

    this storm is ligit. tornado on the ground with very large hail on the northside of the rotation. follow the hook on radar that is the tornado location.

  8. mitchg Says:

    looks slightly weeker now, still some rotation on radar in the e-town region.

  9. mitchg Says:

    hook back strong again tornado likely on the ground as the supercell goes through cycles.

  10. mitchg Says:

    8:48pm Update

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHWESTERN LARUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN NELSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 915 PM EDT…

    * AT 840 PM EDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR BIG CLIFTY. THIS VERY DANGEROUS STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL ALSO PRODUCE GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.

    * THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    HODGENVILLE…
    ELIZABETHTOWN…
    GAITHERS…
    TONIEVILLE AND MATHERS MILL…
    ROANOKE AND BOUNDARY OAK…

  11. mitchg Says:

    TORNADO WARNING
    KYC093-123-179-270145-
    /O.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0077.110427T0116Z-110427T0145Z/

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    TORNADO WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    916 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    EASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN LARUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN NELSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 945 PM EDT…

    * AT 905 PM EDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS
    NEAR GLENDALE AND NEAR INTERSTATE 65. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM
    WITH STRONG ROTATION. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
    STORM. THIS STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

    * THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    ELIZABETHTOWN…
    ROANOKE…
    LYONS AND NEW HAVEN…
    BLUE GAP…
    CULVERTOWN AND GETHSEMANE…

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

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