turn around don’t drown

numerous flood warnings are in effect for areas north and west of Lexington due to the considerable amount of rain in recent days. Here is my forecast issued earlier today. Temperatures will generally be in the 70’s and 80’s for highs with lows in the 60’s.

Highlights:
– frontal boundary to remain in region throughout forecast period

– periods of thunderstorms each day with severe weather threats

– risk for flash flooding by Wednesday night

Discussion:
A frontal boundary which has been nearly stationary along the Ohio
river will shift slightly northward Sunday night and Monday. Another
round of showers and storms will be likely from Sunday afternoon into
the overnight hours as this boundary shifts north, locally heavy rain
and isolated severe storms are possible. During the day Monday
isolated storms are still expected along the boundary instability
present may allow a few of these to reach severe limits with a threat
for gusty winds and hail. A low pressure system will enhance the
coverage of showers and storms late Monday night with another threat
for heavy rain( up to 1.5 inches from Sunday afternoon-Monday
night)and severe weather in the form of gusty winds. Once again during
the day Tuesday coverage of storms becomes more scattered with a
continued isolated severe threat. A stronger low pressure system will
track over the region along the boundary late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. These features will enhance the heavy rain threat and
lead to a likely widespread additional 2 to locally 4 inches of rain
which may result in flash flooding. In addition severe storms are
possible on the leading edge of this system in the form of gusty winds
and isolated tornadoes. With a almost constant threat for severe
weather and likely hydrological hazards throughout the forecast period
the STN will remain on alert for the foreseeable future. Further
statements for severe watches and warnings, activations and flood
warnings may be needed.
MWG

– southeast of lexington amounts will be much lighter untill roughly Wednesday. Less of a flood threat for JKL, Somerset and Pikeville.

For the rest of us

CVG,BWG, LOU, LEX

– addtional heavy rains will lead to continued probbanilty of flooding

 This is the confrence call out of the paducah office thanks to Beau Dodson for providing the link which discusses the hazardus of this upcoming event.  My concern level is high as flooding which is already in progress will only get worse in the coming days. I have other obligations, meetings, classwork which also demand my attention but i will do the best i can to relay warnings and provide insights in the commets section over the next few days.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/pah/briefs/latest.mp3