the never ending train of severe weather and heavy rain

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– The frontal boundary will be parked over the Ohio river throughout the weekend. At the same time waves of energy will move along the boundary serving as a trigger for periods of showers and storms. Ample mositure in place with a west to east training of storms will lead to a high water threat over the north thus a flash flood watch remains in effect. The majority of the unsettled weather will be in the north. Model guidence including the SREF mean indicates a potential for 1-3 inches across the central and northern portions of the state from Today through Sunday.

– Alos with our region in the warm sector instabilty will be sufficent to delevop storng thunderstorms that may be able to reach severe limits from time to time. However shear is less than yesturday which lowers the threat for rotating storms. tmeperatures will have a wide range the next few days with lows in the 60’s and highs in the 70’s north to 80’s south.

– currently as opf noon saturday storms are ongoing across north central Kentucky. I expect delevopment over western portions and northenr portions of the site region this afternoon these storms may produce large hail and gusty winds with an lesser threat for rotation. Overnight the LLJ and a nother disturbance should spark widespread storms over northern portions with lesser coverage south ioslated severe threat as well. redelevopment sunday afternoon may lead to more scattered severe storms within clusters of showers and storms.

– Monday the boundary shifts northwest of the region leading to a mostly cloudy windy and warm day with highs hitting 80.

– Tuesday and Wednesday two more low pressure systems travel along the boundary renewing the threat for widespread rain and storms which may again be severe. The low track this time will determine if ample instabilty enters the region. highs will be in the 70’s wth lows in the 60’s.

– my main concern throughout the next five days is the hvy rain threat. I could easily see northern sections of the state getting 3-6 inches of rain if not more with southern regions still getting several inches of rain. the ECMWF has the hvy rain axis of 5-8 inches  just west of us while the GFS has this over northern and western portions of the region.

GFS Monday-wednesday night rainfall

that does not count for the 1-3 inches of rain by Monday morning folks. This would imply a widespread river flooding event for the region by mid week.

– I’ll update as i can with watches, warnings and flood threat updates over the weekend.

sorry for the delay this post did not post properly till the webiste untill saturday afternoon it was published at noon saturday.

update

we have a tornado watch for western portions of the region as decent shear coupled with some instabilty has once again led to an enviorment favorable for severe thunderstorms. also one warning is in effect for

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
327 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

KYC023-037-191-OHC015-025-231945-
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110423T1945Z/
PENDLETON KY-BRACKEN KY-CAMPBELL KY-BROWN OH-CLERMONT OH-
327 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
CLERMONT…WESTERN BROWN…CAMPBELL…EXTREME NORTHERN BRACKEN AND
NORTHEASTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES…

AT 327 PM EDT…RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MOUNT AUBURN…MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
AUGUSTA AND FELICITY.

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9 Responses to “the never ending train of severe weather and heavy rain”

  1. mitchg Says:

    training storms from lou to frankfort flash flooding possibile.

  2. mitchg Says:

    radar indicated rotation west of maysville will pass over the city in the next 15 minutes seek shelter now!

  3. tornadolarkin Says:

    Yeah, looking like the boundery is coming south toward cky, with tstorms firing along it. I think flash flood threat is high for next few hrs in lex, lou, lburg, frkfrt

  4. mitchg Says:

    strong winds of 40-60 mph moving into nelson, spencer, and shelby counties with the storms. warning may be issued shortly.

  5. mitchg Says:

    severe thunderstorm warnings lawrenceburg and morehead

  6. mitchg Says:

    mointoring anderson county storm for rotation, storms with rotation and tornado warnings across northeast KY.

  7. mitchg Says:

    tornado warning for e-town and just northwest of BWG.

  8. mitchg Says:

    strong winds and hail in e-town region. report of funnel cloud in spencer county.

  9. mitch Says:

    flash flood warning for northern ky addtional hvy rain moving in overnight.

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