severe weather outbreak possibile wednesday

by

– currently numerous thunderstorms are in progress tonight with all the ingredients in place for severe weather and tornadoes. These storms will move through overnight ,

– The question is do we have enough time after these storms move through to destabilize the atmosphere again?

If so

– we have strong 500 mb PVA, a decent  jet streak and a continued strong advection of moisture into the region along the boundary providing lift. Along this boundary considerable shear will be present as well. All of the incidents are in play for a severe weather outbreak regionwide should the atmosphere become unstable.

A look at the latest NAM and HRRR runs out do show convection to our southeast first thing in the morning. I’ll be tracking things to see if things become unstable. I had planned on a more detailed update but given the opening round will moving in soon this update was short.

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9 Responses to “severe weather outbreak possibile wednesday”

  1. mitchg Says:

    storm becoming tornadic again warning for anderson, nelson regions

  2. mitchg Says:

    severe thunderstorm warning frankfort/

  3. mitchg Says:

    shelby, spencer severe thunderstorm warning

  4. mitchg Says:

    line of severe storms moving across eastern ky

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAUREL…
    WESTERN CLAY AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM EDT…

    AT 1004 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
    DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    HIGHTOP…OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONDON…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
    MPH.
    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    1000 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

    KYC017-049-181-271415-
    /O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0222.000000T0000Z-110427T1415Z/
    NICHOLAS KY-BOURBON KY-CLARK KY-
    1000 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT
    FOR EASTERN CLARK…SOUTHEASTERN BOURBON AND NICHOLAS COUNTIES…

    AT 955 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
    WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
    EXTENDING FROM PLEASANT VALLEY TO COTTON BRANCH…MOVING NORTHEAST AT
    55 MPH.

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    CARLISLE…
    SPROUT…
    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    1008 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

    KYC051-109-125-271445-
    /O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-110427T1445Z/
    JACKSON KY-CLAY KY-LAUREL KY-
    1008 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAUREL…
    WESTERN CLAY AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM EDT…

    AT 1004 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
    DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    HIGHTOP…OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONDON…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
    MPH.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    LONDON…MCKEE…LEVI JACKSON S.P….WOOD CREEK LAKE…LESBAS…
    PITTSBURG…CARMICHAEL…HARE…EAST BERNSTADT…HAZEL PATCH…CAMP
    WILDCAT…MAPLESVILLE…OAKLEY…VICTORY…DEER LICK…LAMERO…
    MERSHONS…ATLANTA…LANGNAU AND TEMPLER.
    damaging winds the main threat.

  5. mitch Says:

    my apologies for missing the tornado warnings earlier today in the bluegrass as i still asleep on CT.

  6. mitch Says:

    i still was

  7. Joseph Says:

    Mitch what are your thoughts on this afternoon and evening in the Liberty/Somerset area and eastward?

  8. mitchg Says:

    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    602 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

    KYC013-121-235-272230-
    /O.CON.KJKL.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-110427T2230Z/
    KNOX KY-WHITLEY KY-BELL KY-
    602 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

    …A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN BELL…
    SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY AND WESTERN KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT…

    AT 559 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
    STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNTAIN ASH…OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
    WILLIAMSBURG…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

    THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR…
    BIRDSEYE…CARPENTER…GOINS AND GAUSDALE AROUND 610 PM EDT.
    HUBBS…BRYANTS STORE…WARREN AND KAYJAY AROUND 615 PM EDT.
    TROSPER…MYRICK…AVIS AND BRUSH CREEK AROUND 620 PM EDT.

  9. mitchg Says:

    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    756 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

    KYC095-131-133-193-280030-
    /O.CON.KJKL.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-110428T0030Z/
    PERRY KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-HARLAN KY-
    756 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

    …A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HARLAN…SOUTHWESTERN
    LETCHER…SOUTHEASTERN LESLIE AND SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL
    830 PM EDT…

    AT 751 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
    STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RIVER RIDGE…OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
    HARLAN…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER
    SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTY ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
    GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE
    ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESES STORMS.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    HARLAN…WHITESBURG…TOTZ…LOUELLEN…BLACK BOTTOM…
    LEATHERWOOD…LEJUNIOR…CLOVER-DARBY…RILEYVILLE…CLOSPLINT…
    GEORGETOWN…RUTHERFORD…DIANE…GILLEY…HOLMES
    MILL…HIRAM…DELPHIA… CREECH…SLEMP…CHAD AND GORDON.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
    STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME…A VEHICLE OR
    OUTDOORS…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
    YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

    &&

    LAT…LON 3679 8347 3694 8344 3722 8289 3704 8272
    3698 8286 3689 8287 3686 8295 3685 8306
    3675 8314 3673 8327 3670 8334 3667 8342
    3667 8343
    TIME…MOT…LOC 2355Z 240DEG 43KT 3691 8312

    $$

    PELTON

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