storm underway

precip has broken out for areas south of danville richmond and jackson in the form of a cold rain this sheild will very very slowly work north and expand over all areas south of 1-64 this afternoon the combination of evap and  dynamical cooling will allow the precip to change to ice and snow even in this very late stage we’re seeing model disagreement. the ice and snow willcover the grass and make roads slick by the evening as i said this will be a wait and see game a chace for the rapid update model (RUC) to shine which updates every hour. this model is trying to bring a bit more snow to the lex area than i what i have and making the chaeover quick for all of us. the 06z gfs has ice this afternoon for most of cent ky with a changeover to snow from rain over east ky with a few inches for most already in the snow forecast. the nam had a blimp on the 00z run it’s 12z run intialized the precip sheild a tad south but it brings in hvy precip this afternoon and eve east of lex with a slower changeover. winter weather adv’s are up for camplesville, danville, london, jackson and pikeville.  as for the models my pick of the gfs appears to be ok looking at the nws jkl discussion as it is best handling the dynamical cooling aspect of the storm.

i’m sticking with the gfs on it’s 12z run and it matches up well with the ruc though the ruc is faster to cool us at 850 mb. although it’s too slow cooling us off at 850 mb. 12z nam not far off just a touch se

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