July- Heat wave breaks mid-month to more of a normal pattern

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Short term for Sunday night 7/1

– A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the bluegrass and I-71 regions. I could see a few scattered storms with gusty winds this evening for the watch area. Will be watching.

Long range forecast for July.  June actually had normal temperatures at Lexington for the month as a whole. I expect July to be around 5 degrees above normal for the first half then near normal the second half of the month.

I don’t see the heat wave breaking till at least July 10th. Overall drier than normal through mid-month then more fronts may allow for normal precipitation the second half of the month. I also expect a very hot period for late August into September.  The ridge gradually retreats west this week into the southern plains and Rockies. Getting this even a bit further west into the PAC NW is key and would result in a cooler pattern.

1. Over the next 10 days highs should be in the 90’s each day with a few hit and miss storms in the late afternoon and early evening. Where conditions are drier say BG a few more days near 100 are possible. The storms may have the ability gusty winds may result from any storm this week. We’ll have to watch for disturbances as well which may allow storms to organize. overall I’m not that optimistic a considerable of Convective inhibition also known as a CAP will be present in the mid-levels of the atmosphere making it hard to get storms without a trigger. Coverage and chances should be no more than 20-30% each day. Overnight lows will be in the 70’s as well this next week.

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2 Responses to “July- Heat wave breaks mid-month to more of a normal pattern”

  1. mitch Says:

    I’m thinking the front may stall next week over the region and dent the drought. check back full update within 24 hrs.

  2. mitch Says:

    backward moving MCS heading into east ky with severe thunderstorm watches and warnings in effect. Damaging winds a big player again today.

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