MCS thunderstorm complex threat increasing for the next few days

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1. On Friday a complex of thunderstorms known as a MCS clipped northern parts of the region with strong winds. This tracked on the edge of the heat ridge which has provided a hot and dry airmass and heat wave over our region. This airmass has resulted in sinking air and the development of a cap due to the hot and dry airmass and the prevention of thunderstorm formation. Along the edges of the heat ridge week disturbances and fronts can use the difference in airmasses to create clusters of storms. I expect this to be a threat over the next few days. However I still think the strength of the ridge keeps my optimism in check. Like today any thunderstorm cluster will have to come from the northwest and will struggle to move south being blocked by the strong ridge. Though by Sunday I could see the track of any MCS become more favorable regionwide for rain to dent the heat. Overall I’m going 40% northeast for rain chances and 25% for the rest of the region. Sunday 50% north and 40% elsewhere. This is higher than my forecast a few days ago. I’ll track any MCS’s as needed. The MCS’s may present a high wind threat due to a considerable amount of instability in the region.

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One Response to “MCS thunderstorm complex threat increasing for the next few days”

  1. mitch Says:

    Thunderstorms likely to be severe if they delevop. Strong Cap in place as of 12:00 pm Sunday.

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