Same old Hot and Dry, Does Debby Provide a Different Tune?

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1. Tropical storm Debby has formed in the gulf. My timetable for development is off a bit but it continues the fast start to the Hurricane season. This is also the first system of the season which has a chance to influence our weather in about 5-7 days.

2. Monday a front will provide a glancing shot around a cooler airmass. This may knock highs down into the 80’s for some with low 90’s south. However moisture appears limited with the best lift well north of our region, only slight rain chances. Monday night with clear skies and low dewpoints, lows in the 50’s may be common.

3. Tuesday will be dry with highs in the 80’s. Perhaps a few northeast stay in the 70’s.

4. A very strong ridge of high pressure builds in for the remainder of the week. This should send highs back into the 90’s for the remainder of the week with lots of sun. Lows will gradually warm as well into the 60’s and even 70’s. The good news is humidity should stay low. Though highs Friday and Saturday could reach the upper 90’s, 100? Heat indices should only be slightly higher. High pressure ridges mean sinking air and a lack of convection till a front can break down the ridge. However tropical storm Debby is a player as well.

5. Right now modeling has three tracks on Debby.

A: Into South Texas- NOGAPS, JMA

B: Central Gulf coast hit, moisture spreads into our region next weekend. – ECMWF, yesterday’s CMC, UKMET

C: Up the east coast and out to sea- GFS, today’s CMC

Why the difference in track?

– Path C provides the early week trough picks the system up. I do not think this will happen and is a common bias in the GFS to do this with tropical systems.

– The movement is very slow and the system still sheared. This makes it hard for models to gauge what’s going on. I expect a slow organization in the next few days.

– The slight northward movement over the next day or so due to a more limited influence of the early week trough may make an almost westward track more in line with path B

– Frontal boundary next weekend may interact with a decaying center of Debby and break down the ridge. Path A provides the ridge holds firm over the south sending the storm due west.

For now much uncertainty exists regarding increased chances of needed rain from Debby. I want to see how the pattern evolves before committing to a forecast track.

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2 Responses to “Same old Hot and Dry, Does Debby Provide a Different Tune?”

  1. Seth Says:

    I’m thinking track B is probably the most likely.

  2. mitch Says:

    GFS outcome gaining support despite the normal bias.

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