Looking ahead

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1.  Showers and storms occurred for many today. However this front washes out over the region still leaving it hot and humid for Wednesday. Not enough lift for any storms. Also I think eastern portions of the state will see some sinking air associated with tropical depression Beryl promoting a lack of convection. Highs will be in the 80’s after lows in the 60’s. Any rain or wind from Beryl will be well east of the region.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

2. Thursday a low pressure system and several clusters of storms will track northeast from the southern plains into our region. A cold front will develop behind this low with the washed out front becoming a warm front. The warm front will push through the region increasing the amount of instability advection and the amount of the shear ahead of the low. However morning thunderstorms to our west should keep clouds in place and limit the instability. The warm front should also push north putting northern Kentucky in a region that has sufficient shear for tornadoes. In the afternoon enough instability may materialize for a few storms to have severe hail and damaging winds regardless. If morning convection is less than anticipated then a squall line with a widespread wind threat and some hail could occur. expect a day that features several rounds of showers and storms. Winds will increase from the south then northwest by Friday morning. Conditions will be slow to clear out Friday as well. Highs could struggle to 80 Thursday with lows Friday morning in the 50’s.  I will update Wednesday on this as the set-up is complex.

3. Clouds should linger Friday I’m going to keep a slight shower chance as well with highs in the mid to upper 60’s.

4. Saturday Should be mostly sunny with lows near 50 and highs in the 70’s. A great day to be outdoors!

5. Fair Sunday and we’re back in the 80’s. Long term I expect the idea summer battleground to really take shape with the core of the heat over the southern plains and a mean trough being reinforced periodically in the east. Our region should an increase in thunderstorms for the first part of June as a result with temps near normal.

6. Also next winter still looking good for snow and cold. Models coming onto my idea of a central base week to moderate el-nino. Already seeing cold forecasted for the winter over the east on the CFS. 1976-77,2002-03,2009-10 looking good as analogs.  Last year I saw the tides turn toward warm and kept riding the warm card. Reverse this year.

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