Stormy start to week, heat wave as advertised to end month

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We have our first tropical system of the year.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Back to KY.

1. Monday a front and upper level low move into the region with an increase of clouds, showers and storms. I expect highs only in the 70’s. No severe weather expected.

2. This front lingers into Tuesday so more of the same. Lows near 60 as well.

3. By Wednesday the upper low has moved little. Although a lot of moisture should translate east of our region. I’m thinking isolated storms with highs back in the 80’s.

4. A strong upper level ridge will replace the trough bringing with it strong southwest flow and  sinking air. This means several sunny very hot and humid days to end May from Thursday to memorial day. The ECMWF is aggressive keeping the ridge in place while the GFS tries to bring a few fronts north of our region. I could see modeling verifying with highs in the mid 90’s and dewpoints from 70-75 for a day or two. That would be heat advisory criteria on a big outdoor weekend. Stay tuned, I’ll update again Tuesday on this.

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2 Responses to “Stormy start to week, heat wave as advertised to end month”

  1. mitch Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED AN

    * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
    NORTHWESTERN OWSLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 230 PM EDT

    * AT 110 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY
    AREA.

  2. mitch Says:

    HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED AN

    * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
    NORTHEASTERN LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

    * AT 445 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

    * RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
    OCCUR…ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
    CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
    INCLUDE…MANCHESTER…ADD…BENGE…BLUEHOLE…BOHO…BYRON…
    DATHA…EGYPT…FALL ROCK…FOGERTOWN…GARRARD…GRACE…HERRON…
    HIMA…HOOKER…HORSE CREEK JUNCTION…HOUSE…LARUE…LITTLETON…
    PIGEONROOST…ROYRADER…SHEPHERDTOWN…SIBERT…SIDELL…TREADWAY
    AND URBAN.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
    ADVISORY AREA.

    EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
    CREEKS AND STREAMS…COUNTRY ROADS…AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
    BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

    IN HILLY TERRAIN…THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
    ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
    ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
    INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.353 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

    …FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ESTILL AND
    NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT…

    AT 353 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

    RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
    OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE…
    ALUMBAUGH…CRYSTAL…DOE CREEK…EVELYN…FIXER…GREELEY…
    LEIGHTON…MOUNT OLIVE…OLD LANDING…PINNACLE…PRYSE…SHADE…
    TEXOLA…WHYNOT…WILLOW SHOALS…YELLOW ROCK AND ZOE.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
    ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
    SAFELY.

    MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
    BRIDGES…DIPS…OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
    NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM…EVEN A SMALL ONE…ON FOOT OR
    IN A VEHICLE.

    &&FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    408 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

    KYC011-069-212230-
    /O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120521T2230Z/
    /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    BATH KY-FLEMING KY-
    408 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

    …FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN FLEMING AND
    NORTH CENTRAL BATH COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT…

    AT 408 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

    RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
    OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE…
    GRANGE CITY…HILLSBORO…PEBBLE…PECKS RIDGE…RINGOS MILLS…
    SHARKEY…SHERBURNE…TILTON AND WYOMING.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
    ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
    SAFELY.

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