I’m Back!

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It’s been a very long week as I have been working hard on edits to my masters thesis before graduation. There has been no time in my schedule for anything else.

1. Today we have a Stationary front parked over the Ohio river and a cold front with low pressure over the central plains. This will transport warm and moist air into the region. The frontal boundary may also serve to trigger some scattered storms primarily to our north. A sufficient amount of instability will be present today, marked by steep low level lapse rates ( change in temperature with height) and CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/KG. This may promote a threat for damaging winds and large hail with any storm. Highs will be in the 80′s today for all but far northern KY with mostly sunny skies. Storm chances are only around 30%. In far northern KY highs temperatures will be lower on the other side of the front in the 60’s. Also enough shear may be present for a rotating storm or two over northern KY.

 

2. Sunday and Monday the stationary boundary to our north lifts a little further north as a warm front and the cold front stays over the plains. This allows ridging to continue to build over our region. This results in sinking air at the surface preventing convection development and keeping any storm chance isolated (15%) at best with mostly sunny skies. Though once again  instability will be sufficient for any isolated storm to become severe with similar threats to today. Lows will be in the lower 60′s with highs in the low to mid 80′s, temperatures may be 10 degrees or cooler Sunday over the far north with the boundary in place. Winds through Tuesday should be out of the south and not to gusty.

3. Tuesday the cold frontal boundary approaches which is the trigger needed to increase storm chances to likely. Also shear will increase as well giving us our best chance of severe weather for the forecast  period. Though if storms arrive to early then instability will lack due to cloud cover. Lows will be in the lower 60′s with highs in the 70′s.

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